Is A 2010 Republican Comeback Really Impossible?

realclearpolitics.com ^ | May 12, 2009 | Sean Trende

[kellynla]

I was a little bit surprised about two weeks ago when Stu Rothenberg declared that Republicans' chances of taking back the House were not small, not tiny, but zero. The usually cautious Rothenberg states that the idea of a GOP takeover is "lunacy [that] ought to be put to rest immediately." Charlie Cook isn't as categorical, but he writes that "the 1934 model [where the President's party picked up nine seats] probably represents Democrats' best-case scenario and 1982 [where the President's party lost 26 seats] their worst-case scenario. As of now, Obama's Democrats are heading down a track much closer to 1934's."

Let me state at the outset that I think a full GOP comeback in the House is very unlikely, as I explained here. The 25% chance that Intrade currently gives Republicans of winning in 2010 is Pollyannaish. But declaring that the Republicans' chances of taking the House back are absolutely DOA is grossly premature.

The claim that parties cannot bounce back from rough elections and claim the mantle of "change" in the subsequent election is unsupported by history. In 1946, Republicans gained 55 seats and took control of the House of Representatives after sixteen years of unified Democratic control of government. Two years later Democrats were back, gaining 75 seats and re-taking both Houses. After double-digit losses in back-to-back years in 1978 and 1980, including a drubbing in the 1980 elections that gave Republicans de facto unified control of the government, the nation eventually became dissatisfied with the Reagan Administration, and Democrats gained back 27 seats.

And in 1996, Democrats actually picked up enough Republican seats to take back the House.

[kellynla]

The Gelding Old Party just needs to get a testicle & spine implant before next year so that they can begin to take back the House and/or Senate and hopefully when & if they do eventually take back the Majority they will do a better job of actually leading than they did the last time.

Semper Fi, Kelly

[ClearCase_guy]

As far as I can see, the GOP is still waging war on Conservatives, so I don’t think the base will turn out in large numbers in 2010.

[GonzoGOP]

In short, Senate impossible, House unlikely, but possible. In the Senate there just are not 10 Socialist seats up for grabs, and that assumes we can defend all of ours, which is unlikely.

On the other hand San Fran Nancy is making herself increasingly unpopular. If it wasn't for ACORN I would say we have a good chance of picking up the house. however ACORN will cheat up 5-10 percent. So we need to be winning the generic congressional ballot by five or ten points in order to make up for the ACORN effect.

[Arthur McGowan]

The Democrats’ base is MORONS. Unfortunately, no one talks about their most powerful campaign machine of all—government schools, which succeed in churning out a fresh crop of morons year in and year out, whether the morons graduate or drop out.

[Logic n' Reason]

As long as there is breathing and a heartbeat, nothing is impossible.

That said, there is precious little time for the "gop" to develop rational intelligence, morals, dynamic leadership, and the ability to "sell" it's package.

For 2010?? It truly does not look promising....and don't the dims know it.

[Daisyjane69]

It’s impossible if the choices are:

Democrat or Democrat “lite”

We have to draw a firm line in the sand. It’s their way or our way.

and we also have to do our part to change the minds of those who are WRONG.

TV and Radio commercials only go so far. This war has to be waged as our brave Marines battled in Iraq. We took Falluja one house at a time.

We have to educate people one at a time!

[kabar]

Both impossible, but if we can narrow the Dem margin significantly in the House, we can work with the Blue Dogs on budget and other issues and slow down the Obama Express. Any major increase in the number of Reps in Congress will send a strong shot across the bow of the Dems and the WH that the natives are restless and 2012 could be more than just a cakewalk for a second term for Obama.

[omega4179]

I agree we gotta set sights low. Even a net gain of 10 reps and 2 senators would be a huge momo shift.

[taildragger]

There is no insurrectional leader of a resistance with a game plan for victory.

Boehner? He reminds me of that Charles Schawb commercial a few years, back, i.e. "let's put some lipstick on this pig".

G_d help us...

[Vaquero]

Is A 2010 Republican Comeback Really Impossible?

I use to think I had my finger on the pulse of the American people.....I could understand a second term for a Clinton, I figured Bush would get a second term (was not sure of a 1st).

But I knew in my heart of hearts that the American people would NEVER, EVER, vote for a blatant MARXIST.... so now if you ask me can we get back seats in 2010?

I would have to say probably....but I am no longer certain of anything the voting population will do...

I don't know where my country went to...I don't recognize America any more.

[Bernard]

Character, adherence to clearly stated principles, and a positive attitude and delivery will win the election. It's been tried before and been successful. But, that comes from the candidates. The candidates need to recognize that the media will largely ignore or distort the message, and the candidates need to keep on trying to do the right thing.

The question is, can the party and its core demand that from the candidates, who will be the visible image the party provides?

[nascarnation]

A lot can happen in 18 months.
Baraq may find that dumping billions into Chrysler and GM every month to fund the UAW doesn’t play all that well after a few years.

[Non-Sequitur]

The Gelding Old Party just needs to get a testicle & spine implant before next year so that they can begin to take back the House and/or Senate and hopefully when & if they do eventually take back the Majority they will do a better job of actually leading than they did the last time.

You don't implant testicles and a spine. You toss out those who don't have them and replace them with those who do. So long as Boehner and McConnell are running the show I have to agree that the chances of the GOP taking back Congress hover somewhere between zilch-point-sh*t and none.

[PBRSTREETGANG]

What would a “GOP” comeback really mean?

Many in the GOP want to be Democrats.

The Democrats now are, in large part, Marxists.

[kellynla]

With HALF the population dependent on the government for their livelihood and HALF the population who do not pay a dime in federal income tax, who says “Communism is dead!”

That said, the majority of the registered voters are “R” & “I”; so “if” the GOP gets their collective act together;
it is “possible” BUT they better get it in gear and SOON!

Semper Fi,
Kelly

[cotton1706]

“And in 1996, Democrats actually picked up enough Republican seats to take back the House.”

This isn’t true. Should the rest be believed?

[steve-b]

The GOP’s fighting spirit makes Tom Lehrer’s “Fight Fiercely, Harvard” look like “The Battle Hymn Of The Republic”.

[Dead Corpse]

Between the Romneyites and the McCainiacs, he might be right. The GOP not only needs to return to basics, but they need to FIGHT.

Limp-wristed moderation isn't going to get them very far.

This does not mean launching smear campaigns and other dirty tricks. Our opponents are DEMOCRATS. They've generated enough mud on their own. We just need to rub their noses in it. Don't be afraid to call a "spade" a "shovel" and throw the results of their lies and Socialism back in their faces.

[kabar]

I suggest you read the entire article, so you can be believed.

And in 1996, Democrats actually picked up enough Republican seats to take back the House. They were only foiled by the high number of Southern Democratic retirements, which allowed Republicans to take enough heavily Republican open seats from the Democrats to keep their losses to a minimum. The Republicans' task in 2010 is not so much to take on the mantle of change, as it is to convince the voters that the change they are receiving is not the change they voted for in 2008.

[Ticonderoga34]

A lot can happen in 18 months. Baraq may find that dumping billions into Chrysler and GM every month to fund the UAW doesn’t play all that well after a few years.

Yeah, a lot can happen in 18 months. I would imagine that a lot of pundits thought the Republican party was dead in May of 1993 with Clinton in the White House and the 'Rats in control of congress.

Obama and the 'Rats will overstep and there will be a bounce back. The question is will the Republicans be ready to take advantage of the 'Rats miscues?