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CA: If Props Fail, $21.3 Billion Deficit
KQED - Capitol Notes ^ | 5/11/09 | John Myers

Posted on 05/11/2009 6:10:24 PM PDT by NormsRevenge

Late word this evening that will get everyone's attention: Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger has informed legislative leaders that if three of the six budget-related ballot measures fail next Tuesday, the state faces a $21.3 billion deficit between now and next July.

In a letter to the four legislators this afternoon, Schwarzenegger actually offered two new assessments from his budget team of what lies in store for California: a $15.4 billion shortfall if Propositions 1C, 1D, and 1E pass, and the aforementioned $21.3 billion if they fail.

This comes after Schwarzenegger told reporters in Culver City today that he intends to release a full revised state budget on Thursday -- about two weeks earlier than was expected, but about the normal time that revised budgets are submitted to the Legislature.

Actually, he said he'd offer up two revised budgets... one if Props 1C-1E pass, and one if they fail.

The biggest mystery about those documents was going to be the latest deficit projections, which this late news pretty much answers. As for actions he will propose should the ballot measures (as expected) take a nosedive, those have trickled out in various news outlets over the last few days.

Taking a closer look at the $15.4 billion deficit projection, aides to Schwarzenegger say that a full $7.4 billion of that is in the fiscal year that ends just 50 days from now; the remaining $8 billion is in the 2009-2010 fiscal year.

That $8 billion in the '09-'10 year matches up with March's projection by Legislative Analyst Mac Taylor. And given that Controller John Chiang announced last Friday a $2.1 billion shortfall in anticipated revenues for the current year... that leaves about $5 billion in what budget watchers might call "new" deficit in this announcement.

Remember that the February budget deal... painful, complicated, and full of protracted negotiations... produced about $14.8 billion in spending cuts and $12.5 billion in tax increases. Put another way: if you take the word of those who say there will be more tax increases, then even the best case scenario -- a $15.4 billion gap -- would have to be closed with even more cuts than were agreed to this winter.

There's little doubt that those opposed to the May 19 ballot measures will see this news as just another tactic of Schwarzenegger to try and drag some of those propositions across the goal line with voters.

Regardless, they paint a bleak picture for the weeks and months to come... and will no doubt spark a spirited debate about both what to do, and whether these circumstances are truly worse than any in modern times.


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Government; Politics/Elections; US: California
KEYWORDS: calbudget; california; calinitiatives; deficit; planb; prop1abcdef; prop1c; prop1d; prop1e; props
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Doom Doom Doom (/aRnie)
1 posted on 05/11/2009 6:10:24 PM PDT by NormsRevenge
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To: NormsRevenge

Federal bailout and public employee pay raises. Continue to provide $12 bill a year for services to illegals. Everything OK!


2 posted on 05/11/2009 6:11:29 PM PDT by nufsed (Release the birth certificate, school and passport records.)
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To: NormsRevenge
Bring it on. Maybe then Sacramento will do something.
3 posted on 05/11/2009 6:12:09 PM PDT by Uncle Hal
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To: NormsRevenge

The state will still outlast the taxpayers


4 posted on 05/11/2009 6:12:30 PM PDT by edcoil (Taxes only help an evil government)
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To: NormsRevenge

Coming soon to a federal government near you....


5 posted on 05/11/2009 6:13:32 PM PDT by Tzimisce (http://groups.myspace.com/nailthemessiah)
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To: NormsRevenge

There’s no support for the Props; everyone I know is voting “NO.”


6 posted on 05/11/2009 6:16:19 PM PDT by ExTexasRedhead
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To: NormsRevenge
I wonder if he has rethought his proclamation last month that there was no need for Plan B:
Well, I think it’s important to know that the more people recognize and know more about the reforms and about the measures that are on the May 19th ballot, the more they are in favor of it. I think that the original kind of reaction of the people was negative. It was kind of, don’t make me go out again and vote. You guys are all screwed up, up there in Sacramento, you can’t get your act together. I want to see first action from you, then you will see action from me. And these are the kind of comments I heard when I walked around on the street.

Then, as we went out and had town hall meetings, and I saw the endorsements coming in from law enforcement and from the education community and from everyone, from business leaders and labor leaders and all of those things, all of a sudden they now have become more aware of what will happen if they don’t pass; that it will be disastrous for education and it will be terrible for the budget, there will be another $14 billion in the hole, and we will never get the reforms every again, the reforms that we have now on the ballot. So I think that more and more people are for it, and you see the numbers are changing in favor of the initiatives, which is very important.

And I think that I always say I’m programmed for being successful with initiatives, or with whatever I do. So I don’t go and start thinking, during the campaign, what do we do if we lose, because that’s kind of like half of the mind then is on winning, and half of the—one foot is on losing and one foot is on winning, and trying to back yourself up, if this doesn’t work then this works.

No. If you really are passionate about something—-and I’m really passionate about those initiatives—-then you have to be 100 percent invested in this winning. And I will travel up and down the state and I will talk to as many groups as possible, and to as many people that maybe had originally a negative opinion about all of this, or about special elections in general, and talk to them and let them know why this is important, to save the state from going off the cliff. And why it’s also important for education and why it is important for health care and for keeping the prisoners locked up and helping with law enforcement funding and all of those kind of things. It is absolutely necessary. So I will do everything that I can to make them win and bring as many people to the table.


7 posted on 05/11/2009 6:20:52 PM PDT by calcowgirl (RECALL Abel Maldonado! - NO on Props 1A 1B 1C 1D 1E 1F)
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To: NormsRevenge

Ok, they are desperate enough to threaten firing the firemen and police and release criminals, but are they desperate enough to drill for oil off their own coast?


8 posted on 05/11/2009 6:24:46 PM PDT by Vince Ferrer
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To: ExTexasRedhead

Already voted NO on all my absentee ballots - yes, BALLOTS - mine and the spouses. Chalk up two for the good guys.

Let CA go bankrupt so we tell everyone on this list to stuff it...

4,818 retired California government workers receive pensions in excess of $100,000 from CalPERS.
TOP TEN
BRUCE MALKENHORST $499,674.84
JOAQUIN FUSTER $296,555.88
DONALD GERTH $278,054.64
JAMES STAHL $265,740.96
JOHN SCHLAG $255,600.48
WILLIAM GARRETT $254,745.72
RAYMOND PATCHETT$239,635.80
ROBERT TOONE JR $232,947.36
DIANNE OKI $231,164.16
CARL BORONKAY $224,812.80

http://www.californiapensionreform.com/calpers/


9 posted on 05/11/2009 6:25:21 PM PDT by anonsquared (Where's Harry Tuttle when you need him?)
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To: NormsRevenge

Hey Norm, wasn’t one of Arnie’s campaign promises to eliminate all the state commissions? Instead he has added even more.


10 posted on 05/11/2009 6:27:26 PM PDT by anonsquared (Where's Harry Tuttle when you need him?)
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To: NormsRevenge
According to the latest figures in California Sales Tax & Income Revenues are both down 50% from last year at the time.
What is Arnold and the Legislature going to do, raise taxes even further?
That for sure will just increase the exodus out of California.
California can go a long way to helping itself if it will okay off shore drilling, the only way to create wealth, jobs and a more viable tax base. But they won't do it.
11 posted on 05/11/2009 6:27:42 PM PDT by Captain Peter Blood
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To: Captain Peter Blood

I have a friend that has worked in CA politics for years. He sent me this email and I sent it to everyone I know in CA. Spread the word if you know anyone in California.

“Vote no on all of them! They were put together by worthless, lying politicians. Prop 1A is a tax increase and a phony budget cap. Prop 1B gives the public schools more money... and where is that $ coming from? Prop 1C borrows against future lottery earnings... completely irresponsible. Prop 1 D and E are somewhat legitimate, but we should never have been paying those taxes in the first place. Prop 1 F is a sham... politicians don’t get a pay raise from the Citizen’s Compensation Committee if it is a “deficit year”... however the Director of Finance must declare it a “deficit year” first. The Director of Finance will not declare it a “deficit year” until the politicians get their pay raise.

It is easier to vote “no” on all of the propositions. Hopefully everyone does and the politicians pull their heads out of their butts and wake up.”


12 posted on 05/11/2009 6:29:56 PM PDT by ExTexasRedhead
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To: NormsRevenge
The Props WILL fail..
The Props MUST fail..

The State is going bust - due in large part to the unrestrained benefits going toward illegal aliens, CIVIL SERVANTS and Environment Lunatics..

Nothing else seems to work on getting the bastards in Sacramento to STOP SPENDING money we don't have...
Burn their credit card, check book and credit rating...

To convince me the State is serious about cutting costs, they should:
1. Slash civil “servant” salaries, benefits, pensions and perks.
2. Outlaw all unions representing civil “servants”..
3. End ALL Welfare, Medical Care and Education of illegal aliens.
4. Enforce the law against hiring illegal aliens...
5. Require strong legal I.D. in order to do any banking, real estate transaction, rent, utilities, cell phone, etc, etc.....
6. Open up areas for oil drilling.

Let them fire the teachers.... Many don't teach, they indoctrinate..

Let them close schools.... too many of them serve a predominately illegal alien or “anchor baby” student body..

Let them fire the police... The courts have hand cuffed them and put criminals in a revolving door justice system...

Let them close Fire Stations.....

THEN - have the bastards in Sacramento explain exactly what ARE we getting for the outrageous taxes we already pay?????

WHERE IS IT GOING, if not to superfluous and money grubbing civil “servants” and illegal aliens...

13 posted on 05/11/2009 6:30:57 PM PDT by river rat (Semper Fi - You may turn the other cheek, but I prefer to look into my enemy's vacant dead eyes.)
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To: NormsRevenge
Vote NO on all the propositions, we did.


14 posted on 05/11/2009 6:40:24 PM PDT by PERKY2004 (Proud Military Wife ... please pray for my deployed husband (deployment #6 to Iraq))
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To: river rat

you need to run for office - that is exactly what I was yelling at the Lou Dobbs show a few minutes ago.


15 posted on 05/11/2009 6:43:05 PM PDT by rahbert
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To: river rat

Dosn’t cali have electronic voting machines .... the die bold ones with the 2 digit hole in the code?

I have a feeling that all the props will pass.

After all , it’s not who votes that count it’s who counts the votes.


16 posted on 05/11/2009 6:59:06 PM PDT by CFW
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To: ExTexasRedhead

>> There’s no support for the Props; everyone I know is voting “NO.”

Hope that’s an indication of how it will turn out. I’ve been disappointed before by California elections that snatched defeat from the jaws of apparent victory.

California... a beautiful state populated by significant numbers of sensible people, but with enormous concentrations of total masochistic urban idiots.

Love to visit, but I wouldn’t want to live there.


17 posted on 05/11/2009 7:00:56 PM PDT by Nervous Tick (Party? I don't have one anymore.)
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To: rahbert

Thanks for the thought....
But, I’m not qualified to run for political office...
My parents were married before I was conceived....


18 posted on 05/11/2009 7:23:38 PM PDT by river rat (Semper Fi - You may turn the other cheek, but I prefer to look into my enemy's vacant dead eyes.)
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To: anonsquared
Already voted NO on all my absentee ballots - yes, BALLOTS - mine and the spouses.

But how did ACORN vote?

19 posted on 05/11/2009 7:32:16 PM PDT by The Duke (I have met the enemy, and he is named 'Apathy'!)
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To: The Duke

Neither my wife nor I have EVER voted yes on ANY Proposition!

Vote NO forever!


20 posted on 05/11/2009 8:18:32 PM PDT by Never2baCrat
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