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I have a hard time taking someone seriously when they try to make the case that the establishment of a modern, secular European-style state in the Middle East in 1948 somehow represented a "fulfillment" of an Old Testament prophecy.

Israel the modern nation is supposed to be a work in progress (spiritually speaking). Check out Ezekiel 36:24-31:

24 For I will take you from among the nations, and gather you out of all the countries, and will bring you into your own land.

25 And I will sprinkle clean water upon you, and ye shall be clean; from all your uncleannesses, and from all your idols, will I cleanse you.

26 A new heart also will I give you, and a new spirit will I put within you; and I will take away the stony heart out of your flesh, and I will give you a heart of flesh.

27 And I will put My spirit within you, and cause you to walk in My statutes, and ye shall keep Mine ordinances, and do them.

28 And ye shall dwell in the land that I gave to your fathers; and ye shall be My people, and I will be your G-d.

29 And I will save you from all your uncleannesses; and I will call for the corn, and will increase it, and lay no famine upon you.

30 And I will multiply the fruit of the tree, and the increase of the field, that ye may receive no more the reproach of famine among the nations.

31 Then shall ye remember your evil ways, and your doings that were not good; and ye shall loathe yourselves in your own sight for your iniquities and for your abominations.

I wonder if Isaiah would even recognize the place today.

Maybe not (at least outside of Jerusalem and other religious areas), but hang around for a while - things are changing for the better. Anyway, Ezekiel would.