Chan Hits Back at WHO Critics [Drudge Title: Beware the 'Second Wave']

The Financial Times via Drudge Report ^ | May 3, 2009 | Andrew Jack

[LibertyRocks]

Published: May 3 2009 14:08 | Last updated: May 3 2009 17:42

The head of the World Health Organisation hit back at critics who have accused it of over-reaction to the swine flu crisis, warning it may return “with a vengeance” in the months ahead.

In her first extensive media interview since alerting the world to a potential flu pandemic nine days ago, Margaret Chan, the agency’s director-general, told the Financial Times that the end of the flu season in the northern hemisphere meant an initial outbreak could be milder but then a second wave more lethal, as happened in 1918.

Fresh data from Mexico suggested the impact of the flu could be less than initially thought. José Angel Cordova, health minister said the flu virus epidemic had passed its peak and was declining. “The evolution of the epidemic is now in its phase of descent,” he said.

The Mexican government, which had already scaled back its original estimate of 176 deaths, said 19 of the suspected 100 deaths from the H1N1 virus had been confirmed.

But Ms Chan warned that an apparent decline in mortality rates outside and within Mexico did not mean the pandemic was ending.

“We hope the virus fizzles out, because if it doesn’t we are heading for a big outbreak.” But she said: “I’m not predicting the pandemic will blow up, but if I miss it and we don’t prepare, I fail. I’d rather over-prepare than not prepare.”

She stressed that a likely increase to the agency’s highest “level six” pandemic alert did not necessarily mean “every country and every individual will be affected” with many more deaths.

Rather “it is a signal to public health authorities to take appropriate measures” such as intensified disease surveillance.

Ms Chan acknowledged frustration with slow release of data on the threat posed by the virus. But she defended Mexico as very co-operative but overwhelmed by extending treatment and limiting the spread of infection as well as analysing cases. She added: “The information is beginning to roll in.”

“These countries are so overwhelmed. Other countries may expect a lot of information now. But people need to allow time for the epidemiology, laboratory and clinical data. ”

She reiterated the WHO’s view based on “the evidence and science available to us” that travel restrictions were counterproductive. Although countries had the right under international health regulations to take different measures, they would need to justify them publicly.

But she defended recent decisions such as that of Hong Kong and New Zealand to quarantine travellers arriving with suspected flu.

Ms Chan called on pharmaceutical companies to increase their contributions, praising their efforts so far but calling for fresh donations and for far larger quantities of drugs and vaccines at lower prices to help treat and protect the poor.

She had released most of the WHO’s stockpile of the antiviral medicine Tamiflu provided by Roche, its manufacturer, which had already agreed to provide more and to propose lower prices.

She hinted at fresh ways to encourage generic companies to produce cheap versions of Tamiflu to expand capacity.

[LibertyRocks]

I don't have a comment on this really, except to say that according to the last I heard (about 4 days ago) researchers at the CDC had said they would know much more about this virus in 5-7 days -- not everything, but much more...

As I've maintained in my posts on this subject: PANIC is NEVER good. Common sense illness prevention is ALWAYS a good idea. Education is important (don't take the word of only one source, especially as "re-arranged" by our media, and that includes quotes of course...). Stay up-to-date as to new recommendations by agencies tasked with these things, as well as listening to respected professionals in all the fields researching this.

[Carley]

Seems to me that all those people who experienced the first wave of swine flu are now inoculated against the second wave.

And no chance of deadly side effects from a man made vaccine.

[Ditto]

In the Northern Hemisphere, we are at the end of ‘flu season.’ It it quite possible that this swine flue could return next fall with much more strength. We should watch the Southern Hemisphere closly and see what it does there.

BTW. That is the pattern it took in the 1918-19 pandemic. Most of the deaths were in the 2nd season.

[Jabba the Nutt]

And when the 2nd wave fizzles, BEWARE the 3rd WAVE! Ooga booga!

[Paladin2]

It only takes one death to kill ya.

[yefragetuwrabrumuy]

Her concerns are justified. We know a pattern exists, even if we don’t know why the pattern exists. It has happened in the last four severe influenza epidemics.

First the mild, late spring flu happens. This seems to be the harbinger, as about the only time there is a mild, late spring flu, it is followed by a severe flu.

Then, from July to December, the severe flu window is open. Note that if we can make it to the normal flu season, in January, we are probably not going to get hit hard.

The severe Hong Kong flu hit in July, the severe Spanish flu hit in August.

Critically, the mild flu does NOT seem to impart whole immunity to the severe flu. It may or may not impart limited or partial immunity, but you can’t count on it.

I would speculate that there is some global condition that is the prerequisite for a severe flu season. The condition is still weak in the spring, but is still enough for an atypical, warmer weather influenza to emerge. But then, in July, the condition, whatever it is, is at a peak, creating the optimal conditions for a severe flu.

I like to compare it to an ocean phenomenon. Every year, when conditions are good, there is a great jump in the amount of algae in the surface water. At the same time there is an immense amount of ocean virus that attacks algae, right next to it, but it does not attack the algae. But then, the algae uses up a critical amount of nutrients in the water, and the virus suddenly activates, wiping out most of the algae.

The conditions are right for the virus to attack. And this may be similar to the severe or killer flu that has a good prospect of emerging from July to December of this year. We don’t know why, but we see the pattern.

[BagCamAddict]

I’m not an expert, so this is just a layperson’s comment...

It is my understanding that since Flu viruses are mutating all the time, it could just as easily mutate to a less lethal, less severe form by the Fall.

Anyone?

[Doc Savage]

Total BS!

[truthandlife]

I think 2009 should be known as the “Year of Fear.” Look what we have gotten out of fear. Obama, Bailout, Air Force 1 flyover and Pandemic flu dud.

Obama and the media will create some other crisis where we will do something rash that will continue to totally change the way we do things in this country. I didn’t say that Obama created this pandemic flu crisis but they definitely have used it along with the media.

Hospitals are spending a crazy amount of money with people coming in with a scratchy throat thinking they will die of the Swine Flu.

[cripplecreek]

I would speculate that there is some global condition that is the prerequisite for a severe flu season.

1918 is a beautiful example of a perfect storm for a killer flu. Most americans didn't even have indoor plumbing and anti bacterial soap was non existent. Sanitation just wasn't great anywhere. We had hundreds of thousands of men living in close quarters in muddy trenches exposed to the weather and half starved. Because of the war there was a fairly high rate of global travel despite the pre airline days.

Just take the normal precautions to avoid spreading the flu and I doubt it will be anything more than a typical flu season. (unless there's some political reason people need to be distracted)

[cripplecreek]

I suspect a lot of us have already had it. I seldom get terribly sick but went through a several day period of being achey, feverish, and congested with a headache that all peaked about 4 days ago.

[LibertyRocks]

Ping

[Quix]

Thanks.

[Quix]

I wonder . . .

was this first wave a kind of test marketing effort . . . with

THE REAL THING

to be trotted out along the way . . . any day?

Sigh.

God be with all those who Love Him.

[DvdMom]

Thanks for the ping :)))

[Smokin' Joe]

Ping... (Thanks for posting this, LibertyRocks!)

[netmilsmom]

Unless this continues

http://digg.com/educational/Testimony_of_illegal_alien_care_from_1_Florida_hospital_2

[yefragetuwrabrumuy]

I firmly disagree. While at the time of the Spanish flu, public awareness of hygiene was not good, it was not nonexistent. It did not become what we think of today until WWII. However, this does not imply they were helpless.

At the time, viruses had not been discovered, but the medical community assumed that influenza was caused by bacteria. And the use of alcohol, formaldehyde and carbolic acid (phenol) as antiseptics were long popularized.

There was even a major lawsuit in London in 1892, Carlill v Carbolic Smoke Ball Company, in which a device, a rubber ball vaporizer inhaler with carbolic acid and a nasal tube attached, was sold as a cure for influenza.

From the public perspective, however, there were any number of rules of thumb as to how to behave during all the other epidemics of the time, such as Polio, Whooping Cough, various poxes, Mumps, Typhus, Typhoid Fever, etc. They also had the then recent victory against mosquito-borne Yellow Fever in 1905.

Many middle class homes had “sick rooms” to isolate family members who had become ill. Doctors carried quarantine signs in their bags, and they were respected by the public.

And you’ll notice in the pictures of the times that a large number of people wore masks, though it is indeterminate how helpful they were.

[BagCamAddict]

FWIW, local TV news (WWL) is reporting 7 confirmed cases in Louisiana as of yesterday, and they were not showing up in the CDC count online. All cases are reported to be mild, and patients were sent home to recover (presumably with Tamiflu).

[BP2]

Overblown or not, you have to admit the Swine Flu has accomplished
many things for Team Obama:

1) act as a distraction to those pursuing his background (e.g., school
records, Natural Born Citizen status, etc.)
2) act as a means to allow for a political grab of the Health Care system in
the US
3) act as a way to ask for even MORE “Stimulus” dollars
4) act as a cause the economy is not bouncing back as he promised during
the campaign
5) act as a trial run for the institution of martial law
6) act as a reason his political opponents may not meet en mass, or risk
getting sick from others in the crowd

Yep, Obama scored pretty big on the Swine Flu.

If we have a few more months before flu season hits again, perhaps we
need to get back on track before we are all quarantined in our homes ...