Posted on 04/28/2009 8:24:00 AM PDT by Pete
This document was developed by the CDC in February of 2007 to outline what non-pharmaceutical measures the government would take at the various levels of a pandemic outbreak. Non-pharmaceutical measures include things like quarantine and school and business closures. The term used for these measures is "Social Distancing". Here is how the purpose of this paper is defined.
This document provides interim planning guidance for State, territorial, tribal, and local communities that focuses on several measures other than vaccination and drug treatment that might be useful during an influenza pandemic to reduce its harm. Communities, individuals and families, employers, schools, and other organizations will be asked to plan for the use of these interventions to help limit the spread of a pandemic, prevent disease and death, lessen the impact on the economy, and keep society functioning. This interim guidance introduces a Pandemic Severity Index to characterize the severity of a pandemic, provides planning recommendations for specific interventions that communities may use for a given level of pandemic severity, and suggests when these measures should be started and how long they should be used. The interim guidance will be updated when significant new information about the usefulness and feasibility of these approaches emerges.
Understanding the pandemic index with subsequent social distancing measures to be taken when a particular index value is met will allow you to know what is and is not coming as the swine flu pandemic plays out. We are currently in phase 4. Page 36 of this report has a chart that shows recommended social distancing measures that should be implemented in the various phases. Based on this chart, we should expect additional school closures, cancelation of public events, and modification of workplace schedules. If the government follows the plan, these will likely be implemented in coming days. Some have already been implemented. For example, school closures have occurred. Almost all have already been implemented in Mexico.
Again, we are at phase 4. Page 32 of this report estimates deaths in US between 900,000 and 1.8 million for a phase 4 event. Other than the 1918 flu pandemic, which was a phase 5, we have not had an event above a phase 2 in the 20th or 21st centuries.
I was sick for weeks after our visit in the late 60's.
At phase 8 (out of 6 phases), the administration will consider closing the US-Mexico border.
You rat! I clicked on the link JUST to post that jingle, and you beat me to it.
What I think the Administration is REALLY gonna do, is not let the crisis go to waste, and use it to seize a bit more power. It’ll be a good way to get people used to rationing:
“It’s safest to go to the grocery in small groups, so be sure you go at your assigned time.”
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I got sick on my Honeymoon in Puerta Villarta....and we were doing everything possible to not expose ourself to water, etc....
Swine Flu Case at Orlando/DISNEY...
That is very, very bad news. I would expect many other reports to come in now and things to move quickly.
Also on Drudge, Mexico has increased it's Social Distancing initiatives to close all public eateries.
Note, the estimate of 900,000 to 1.8 million deaths in the US for a phase 4 event on page 33 is based on a population of 300 million.
We have already implement jurisdiction social distancing consistent with the Activation guidelines. Note, if the WHO moves to phase 6, we will see nationwide activition in the US if we stick to the plan.
Also, check out the infection rate graphs by day on page 24. We are in, maybe day 3 or 4. Things don't really take off until day 10. Before that, the graph shows very little activity.
Sounds like “Self Segregation”.
Didn’t Holder say that was a bad thing?
; )
Shhh, let's make sure we keep it just between ourselves. Idiots.
The human swine flu outbreak continues to grow in the United States and internationallly. Today, CDC reports additional cases of confirmed swine influenza and a number of hospitalizations of swine flu patients. Internationally, the situation is more serious too, with additional countries reporting confirmed cases of swine flu. In response to the intensifying outbreak, the World Health Organization raised the worldwide pandemic alert level to Phase 4External Web Site Policy.. A Phase 4 alert is characterized by confirmed person-to-person spread of a new influenza virus able to cause community-level outbreaks. The increase in the pandemic alert phase indicates that the likelihood of a pandemic has increased.
We are in day 3 or 4 in the US. Maybe 7 to 10 internationally. The real spike in cases starts around day 15 and peaks around day 20. It is early but things will start happening more and more every day if this really is a worldwide pandemic.
Deaths from the flu in Mexico had risen last night, reported on “Nightline”.
The flu epidemic back at the turn of the 20th Century was also among younger, healthy persons. I read about a theory of why it happened that was interesting. The writer thought that the recent (then) advent of aspirin worldwide had contributed to it, and not in a good way. His theory was that soldiers from all over the world returning from WWI had benefitted from aspirin on the battlefield and, naturally, brought it home and recommended it to their friends and family (naturally and innocently). However, that being an infectious disease and people taking aspirin early in the illness when they first came down with a fever caused the bacteria to get a foothold in people’s bodies.
Fever is the body’s natural solution to fighting and killing bacteria, etc., and stopping an infection in its tracks before it spreads. Aspirin does lower or eliminate fevers artificially. (I suppose if a fever gets high enough, it can be dangerous - but most people won’t tolerate even a mild fever today. Back then, aspirin was regarded as a miracle drug.)
Don’t know about this theory, but it makes pretty good sense. Now, I’ll tolerate a bit of fever as long as it doesn’t go into the dangerous range.
But we welcome any and all illegals from Mexico to travel to America.
Americans have no resistance built up to Mexican bugs. Mexicans who come here have little resistance to American bugs and get sick in the same way. If you ate anything in Mexico that was not cooked, or consumed a drink with ice in it, or didn’t use bottled water to brush your teeth, you exposed yourselves. Luckily, after one episode you usually are immune to whatever made you sick. That’s not to say a different bug won’t get you the next time. When I was a child we traveled to Mexico occasionally. I got sick the first time, but never again. My nana, who was from Mexico City but who had lived in LA for decades, got sick every time. Go figure.
Interesting idea. I also heard that it infected younger, healthier people with better immune systems and caused their own immune system to over respond and in some cases kill them. Don’t know if that’s true or not either. I’m not a doctor nor do I play one on tv!
It is a bit stunning, isn’t it.
However, you have put more thought into it than the CDC.
1. Identify an event that is not a crisis
...a. Best time is when the crisis can be linked to a legislative pet project (universal health care)
...b. Next-best time is when attention needs to be diverted (budget bill)
2. Hype the non-crisis event as a crisis
3. Make sure everyone is frightened
4. Wait one to two weeks
5. Proclaim that the crisis is over
6. Give credit to Obama for “responding” to the crisis
Well...luckily, I had gotten a prescription for Montezuma’s Revenge before we left....and it REALLY helped....I only suffered for about 24 hours....but it was a MISERABLE 24 hours....
Although the flu pandemic may last several months, buy and store at least 2-weeks supplies of food, water, medicine, and facemasks. (Food and supplies may be hard to get during a pandemic.) When you have to stay home, these supplies will support your family and pets.
If someone in your family has the flu, it is possible that you will not be allowed to leave your home.
What's new about that?
During the 1918 pandemic, my late grandfather recalled his family being quarantined. His older half-sister had the flu, but survived.
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