Posted on 04/23/2009 6:30:55 PM PDT by TigerLikesRooster
A glimmer of hope?
Apr 23rd 2009
The worst thing for the world economy would be to assume the worst is over
THE rays are diffuse, but the specks of light are unmistakable. Share prices are up sharply. Even after slipping early this week, two-thirds of the 42 stockmarkets that The Economist tracks have risen in the past six weeks by more than 20%. Different economic indicators from different parts of the world have brightened. China’s economy is picking up. The slump in global manufacturing seems to be easing. Property markets in America and Britain are showing signs of life, as mortgage rates fall and homes become more affordable. Confidence is growing. A widely tracked index of investor sentiment in Germany has turned positive for the first time in almost two years.
All this is welcome—not least because the slump has been made so much worse by panic and despair. When the financial system was on the brink of collapse in September, investors shunned all but the safest assets, consumers stopped spending and firms shut down. That plunge into the depths could be succeeded by a virtuous cycle, where the wheels of finance turn again, cheerier consumers open their wallets and ambitious firms turn from hoarding cash to pursuing profits.
(Excerpt) Read more at economist.com ...
Ping!
Like the old quote “The odds are six to five that the light in the end of the tunnel is the headlight of an oncoming train”
it’s far from over.
unemployment will still go up.
Commercial real estate will crash, too.
Economist is a bit delusional. I think things leveled off but they are not improving from what I see.
The second derivative dipped just under 0.:-)
But not for long, I suspect.
A lot of people have been trying to say that the worst of the real estate crash was over here in California because sales had picked up a bit. Now a report just came out that forclosures are up in rhe first quarter to something like twice what they were in Q1 of 2008.
My company evaluates lay-offs every quarter. The 2nd qtr. analysis will be quite painful. I could easily be on that list along with several of my co-workers in the engineering dept.
??? I am not following??? Also the second derivative? Second wave of derivatives or Option ARMs coming due over the next 12 months??
The bear bounce will peak in July and the DOW will be at 3800 by December.
No, I was talking about calculus.:-)
“But in many ways, darker days lie ahead. Despite the scale of the slump, no conventional recovery is in sight.”
...that’s how I see it....these little up ticks on Wall Street seem to be fueled by companies that report “not as bad as expected” earnings reports...there’s still the problem of:
foreclosed homes
credit card defaults
commercial loan defaults
stagnant real estate sales
declining new home starts
rising unemployment
Well, if your first derivative is zero, take the second derivative to see if you are at a max, a min, or a constant. /sarc>
Cheers!
consumers and business languishing under heavy debt. No room for consumer spending other than necessities and no new investment by business.
Ahh... Sorry i was thinking about options aka synthetic securities aka toxic crap that wiped out banks too like swaps.
Household incomes between 80K and 140K will have to carry the tax load because that is where the money is. Obama will use this money to help those who voted in block for him instead of paying down the debt. Redistribution will only make his voters more dependant upon the government and democrats. Driving up the tax burden even further. I imagine if cap & trade is implemented Obama will raise taxes even further on the producing class to provide utility relief for the non-producers. Hey but I'm a glass is half full kind of guy.
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