I think Bush’s numbers among Hispanics were an outlier for a few reasons.
1)He was Gov of TX and so he had an inflated # among hispanics in TX, and TX has a lot oh hispanics so that pumps his natl numbers
2)His brother was gov in FL and that helped him with hispanics there and FL also has a lot of hispanics
3)The Elian Gonzales thing hurt Gore big amongst hispanics and I think it carried over to Kerry. If Clinton doesn’t send Elian back, Gore wins in 2000.
4)The 2000/2004 elections were before the immigration reform was considered and the GOP and conservatives did come across as not exactly friendly toward hispanics.
5)Bush did have a post 9/11 glow and benefitted from terrorism and nat’l security being the major issue. By 2008 it was all but forgotten because of the economy.
6)The economy was still in good shape and hispanics didn’t blame the GOP for the economic downturn.
If you look historically, the GOP is lucky to get around 1/3 of the hispanic vote. Even in 1984 when Reagan was his apex, he got 34% of hispanics. Bush got 35% in 2000. McCain got 31% last year. It’s pretty much all in the same ballpark, and even if McCain had matched Bush from 2000 he would have gotten an extra .4 overall and still lost.
The idea that going forward the GOP is going to top 35% or so among the hispanic vote is imho a long road to hoe.
Look at how they said Obama and the dems were making big inroads with evangelicals and even with white voters. He didn’t really. He got 43% of the white vote compared to 41% for Kerry in 04, 42% for Gore in 2000, and the same 43% that Clinton got in 96. Among evangelicals, he pretty much got the same #s that Gore and Kerry got.
The GOP isn’t going to win by magically swinging the hispanic vote. That train has left the station. Bush and Rove had a strategic plan to establish a beachhead through the immigration bill but the conservative opposition ended that and it’s no longer feasible.
The real issue is how to swing that 5 pts or so among the white vote that is needed. It was 58-41 in 2004 and slipped to 55-43 in 2008. If we can get it back up to around 60 we should be ok. But the white % of the overall vote is shrinking year by year and it’s going to be tougher and tougher. 2012 and if not 2016 will be the last election ever in which the white vote will make up more than 70% of the total. By comparison, it made up 88% when Reagan won in 1980.
Go after the professional Hispanic legal vote as the more affluent they become the more apt they are to become Republican and dislike illegals themselves.