Italy muzzled scientist who foresaw quake (seismologist reported to police for 'spreading alarm')

Reuters ^ | April 6, 2009 | Gavin Jones

[NYer]

ROME, April 6 (Reuters) - An Italian scientist predicted a major earthquake around L'Aquila weeks before disaster struck the city on Monday, killing dozens of people, but was reported to authorities for spreading panic among the population.

The first tremors in the region were felt in mid-January and continued at regular intervals, creating mounting alarm in the medieval city, about 100 km (60 miles) east of Rome.

Vans with loudspeakers had driven around the town a month ago telling locals to evacuate their houses after seismologist Gioacchino Giuliani predicted a large quake was on the way, prompting the mayor's anger.

Giuliani, who based his forecast on concentrations of radon gas around seismically active areas, was reported to police for "spreading alarm" and was forced to remove his findings from the Internet.

Italy's Civil Protection agency held a meeting of the Major Risks Committee, grouping scientists charged with assessing such risks, in L'Aquila on March 31 to reassure the townspeople.

"The tremors being felt by the population are part of a typical sequence ... (which is) absolutely normal in a seismic area like the one around L'Aquila," the civil protection agency said in a statement on the eve of that meeting.

"It is useful to underline that it is not in any way possible to predict an earthquake," it said, adding that the agency saw no reason for alarm but was nonetheless effecting "continuous monitoring and attention".

As the media asked questions about the authorities' alleged failure to safeguard the population ahead of the quake, the head of the National Geophysics Institute dismissed Giuliani's predictions.

"Every time there is an earthquake there are people who claim to have predicted it," he said. "As far as I know nobody predicted this earthquake with precision. It is not possible to predict earthquakes."

Enzo Boschi said the real problem for Italy was a long-standing failure to take proper precautions despite a history of tragic quakes.

"We have earthquakes but then we forget and do nothing. It's not in our culture to take precautions or build in an appropriate way in areas where there could be strong earthquakes," he said.

[NYer]

Magnitude 6.3 - CENTRAL ITALY

2009 April 06 01:32:42 UTC

Versión en Español

• Details
• Summary
• Maps
• Scientific & Technical
• Additional Info

Where can I find...?

Earthquake Details

Magnitude	6.3
Date-Time	Monday, April 06, 2009 at 01:32:42 UTC Monday, April 06, 2009 at 03:32:42 AM at epicenter Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones
Location	42.423°N, 13.395°E
Depth	10 km (6.2 miles) set by location program
Region	CENTRAL ITALY
Distances	70 km (40 miles) W of Pescara, Italy 95 km (60 miles) NE of ROME, Italy 115 km (70 miles) SE of Perugia, Italy 135 km (85 miles) S of Ancona, Italy
Location Uncertainty	horizontal +/- 4.6 km (2.9 miles); depth fixed by location program
Parameters	NST= 66, Nph= 66, Dmin=7.7 km, Rmss=0.95 sec, Gp= 50°, M-type=teleseismic moment magnitude (Mw), Version=7
Source	USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)
Event ID	us2009fcaf

• This event has been reviewed by a seismologist.
• Did you feel it? Report shaking and damage at your location. You can also view a map displaying accumulated data from your report and others.

Earthquake Summary

Tectonic Summary

The April 6th 2009 earthquake in Central Italy occurred as a result of normal faulting on a NW-SE oriented structure in the central Apennines, a mountain belt that runs from the Gulf of Taranto in the south to the southern edge of the Po basin in northern Italy. Geologically, the Apennines are largely an accretionary wedge formed as a consequence of subduction. This region is tectonically and geologically complex, involving both subduction of the Adria micro-plate beneath the Apennines from east to west, continental collision between the Eurasia and Africa plates building the Alpine mountain belt further to the north and the opening of the Tyrrhenian basin to the west. The evolution of this system has caused the expression of all different tectonic styles acting at the same time in a broad region surrounding Italy and the central Mediterranean. The April 6th, 2009 earthquake is related to normal faulting and the east-west extensional tectonics that dominate along the entire Apennine belt, primarily a response to the Tyrrhenian basin opening faster than the compression between the Eurasian and African plates.

The central Apennine region has experienced several significant earthquakes in recorded history. In 1997, a significant Mw 6.0 earthquake 85 km north-northwest of the April 6th 2009 event killed 11, injured over 100 and destroyed approximately 80,000 homes in the Marche and Umbria regions. This 1997 event was part of a series of earthquakes known as the Umbria-Marche seismic sequence, which included eight events of magnitude greater than M5.0 in a two-month period between September and November of that year.

[NYer]

IMAGES

[Virginia Ridgerunner]

I saw this movie before...

[sbMKE]

Muzzled him citing “alarmist” language that was panicking the population.

Yet “global warming” alarmism continues - the difference? There’s no tax scheme behind earthquake science.

Prayers out to those affected by this disaster.

[Constitution Day]

Vans with loudspeakers had driven around the town a month ago telling locals to evacuate their houses after seismologist Gioacchino Giuliani predicted a large quake was on the way, prompting the mayor's anger.

Sounds like the mayor is one of those ignorami who don't believe in science.

He should be prosecuted!

[trisham]

Wow. 6.3 is a fairly strong quake.

[RushIsMyTeddyBear]

Now, the government wants a media blackout because of embarrassment.

[Mannaggia l'America]

He should have said there was going to be an earthquake because of Global Warming... then the media would have listened to him.

[Joe 6-pack]

"Sounds like the mayor is one of those ignorami who don't believe in science."

The mayor will soon be blaming the loudspeakers for triggering the quake.

[Constitution Day]

Probably. What a tragic story and it sounds like many deaths and injuries could have been prevented.

[autumnraine]

“”continuous monitoring and attention”.”

You can monitor the situation and give it attention while your house is falling on your head.

That Guiliani sounds like a lot of our own government officials.

It even reminds me of the Jaws movie.

[Mind-numbed Robot]

It's not in our culture to take precautions or build in an appropriate way in areas where there could be strong earthquakes," he said.

He seems to be saying, "We're stupid and we have been for a long time."

[mountn man]

Sounds like the mayor is one of those ignorami who don't believe in science.

I bet he believes in Gorbull Warming. He probably thinks the earthquake was caused by GW.

[Constitution Day]

Oh yeah, probably! LOL.

[mountn man]

I should have read down further before posting. Seems great minds think alike.

But then, whats our excuse? ;)

[12Gauge687]

I think seismologist Giuliani is the prescient one here (as opposed to American governemnt officials). Heck, as an architect, I have been saying for over 20 years that the states surrounding the New Madrid fault should consider strengthening lateral load codes to prepare for possible quakes in the Midwest. I’m still amazed at the number of stick-built houses there are without hurricane straps to tie roofs down despite the frequency of tornadoes.

[briarbey b]

Oh just another one of those tin-foil crazy idea thingys. :)
BUT in all honesty how do you prepare for something like that? Is California really prepared? Do your best and hope for the best, but man can not and will never control the forces of nature.

[Smokin' Joe]

This has long been the problem with earthquake prediction.

If you say it is coming and it does not, you're a jerk (businesses lost money, etc.)

If you do not say one is coming and it dies, you are a jerk (stuff busted, people dead.)

And being right if you predict one is ever a thankless job.

Prayers up for all involved.

[NYer]

BUT in all honesty how do you prepare for something like that? Is California really prepared? Do your best and hope for the best, but man can not and will never control the forces of nature.

While it's true, many cannot control the forces of nature, there are certain 'natural' clues. I have a friend who comes from just southeast of L'Aquila. He often 'knew' when an earthquake was about to strike by the behavior of animals. He claimed there would be an eerie silence just before a major quake - no birds chirping.

In this instance, however, the warning came from a seismologist who had been monitoring highly technical equipment.