Posted on 04/03/2009 6:06:47 AM PDT by jmaroneps37
Watching the flow of financial news has become like watching a magic show at the circus. In the center ring we see an impressive daily slight of hand trick. It turns our attention from the truth to only what Obama wants us to see. Although this changes regularly it never focuses on hard data.
The schizophrenic Democrats can’t decide if they hate Wall Street ( while they are beating it up for their own purposes) or they love Wall Street - when the Dow goes up. Lately the Dow has been going up and of course the media and the Democrats are all bragging about its progress. Headlines giddily screamed, “Dow Jumps on Good news!” The truth these clowns are hiding is ugly and frightening.
The mortgage default rate is at record high levels.
The number of “seriously delinquent” FHA mortgages is up 1.5% in February year to year comparison.
FHA –insured mortgages (taxpayer paid for) for fourth quarter of 2008 were at 30% compared to only 2% in all of 2006! This is the largest jump in defaults EVER and doubles last year’s rate.
Don’t believe the slight up tick in new home sales means anything – it doesn’t.
The Commercial real estate market is still worse. Choice big city commercial asking rates are down 19% and the market is still sagging. The commercial vacancy rate has soared to 11.3% near double last year’s level.
When no new businesses are opening; no new employment opportunities are developed.
The employment picture is very discouraging.
Janet Yellen of the San Francisco Fed, recently said she predicts unemployment will grow straight through 2009 and on into 2010.
The socialists’ huge spending sprees will choke the life out of our country. This is a time to step up and fight. We have to…
(Excerpt) Read more at collinsreport.net ...
How long to you think the dead cat bounce will last?
ping
The economy will not rebound so along as there is a socialist in the White House and socialists controlling Congress.
THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION: MARCH 2009
Nonfarm payroll employment continued to decline sharply in March (-663,000), and the unemployment rate rose from 8.1 to 8.5 percent, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. Since the recession began in December 2007, 5.1 million jobs have been lost, with almost two-thirds (3.3 million) of the decrease occurring in the last 5 months. In March, job losses were large and widespread across the major industry sectors.
Unemployment (Household Survey Data)
In March, the number of unemployed persons increased by 694,000 to 13.2 million, and the unemployment rate rose to 8.5 percent. Over the past 12 months, the number of unemployed persons has grown by about 5.3 million, and the unemployment rate has risen by 3.4 percentage points. Half of the increase in both the number of unemployed and the unemployment rate occurred in the last 4 months.
(See table A-1.)
The unemployment rates continued to trend upward in March for adult men (8.8 percent), adult women (7.0 percent), whites (7.9 percent), and Hispanics (11.4
percent). The jobless rates for blacks (13.3 percent) and teenagers (21.7 percent) were little changed over the month. The unemployment rate for Asians was
6.4 percent in March, not seasonally adjusted, up from 3.6 percent a year earlier. (See tables A-1, A-2, and A-3.)
There's a line of thought that says "late summer/early fall".
The employment numbers just came out and it does not look good. Also, we have yet to see a big impact due to commercial real estate. The current bounce, IMHO, is nothing more than a temp thing. I look for much more downside on the DOW and NASDAQ....
The next leg down in this death spiral is the commercial balloons and the ARM resets.
Look for very bad news in late 2009 & 2010.
We are in a lull for resets and the next wave is bigger.
Even though we know that adjustable rate mortgages were a major cause of the financial crisis, the storm has not passed.
Just because the problem is obvious, doesn’t mean it is not a problem.
The chart from T2 Partners produced about one year ago shows that we are now in a lull for adjustable rate mortgage resets.
There will be another crescendo of resets in 2010 and 2011. When banks ask for more taxpayer money to sure up their balance sheets in 2010, Timmy Geithner will be wearing his best “shoulda guessed” face when he gets the call from Citicorp.
Commercial, non-residential real estate and construction loans total 40 percent of bank loan portfolios.
These loans will provide the next leg down in this death spiral.
Anyone who can’t see this coming is just not looking.
The Escalator of Life is Going Down
http://seekingalpha.com/article/126971-the-escalator-of-life-is-going-down-part-1
I am leary of these sudden bounces after a dramatic fall. In the past it has been a means for getting the rest of the assets they didn’t get the first time as people jump back in. JMHO.
663K jobs lost in March.
That’s more than the population of Baltimore.
If economists are right, it would mark a record four straight months that job losses topped 600,000.
Obama’s hope n change on full display.
The MSM has assiduously avoided reporting on the weakness is commercial real estate. OTOH, it's been discussed a lot on FR.
It's the next shoe to drop...
The market has mystified me as of late.
The gubmint says we reserve the right to take you pay and tell companys what to do and the market goes up?
I have been saying for months, its like a game of 3 card monte.
Then I suppose the death spiral will just simply be another opportunity for Barack and Company to declare another “crisis” and take the opportunity to spend some more “stimulus” and grow some more socialism.
From the intra-day low on March 10, to yesterday’s intra-day high, the Dow has jumped 26.2%. Quite a move in 3 short weeks!
Seems to me traders still think this is 2006 and we will be back to records in no time.
Very dangerous.
BTW, how is the auctioning of those bad assets that the banks hold going?
I bet they have buyers standing in line, right? /s
By taxing TRILLIONS of dollars they have taken the money out of our pockets and instead of us giving to charity they will decide who the politically correct charities are to be given to.
Instead of letting housing prices fall they want to prop up the fake values and "invest" in them.
Instead of letting the overpriced GM/Ford/etc... auto market succeed or fail by lowering prices they have NOT let the capitalist system correct to a better more efficient price and wage... so they are letting us all become Detroit, Newark , Chicago, Boston, New York,... and all the other rotting piles of democrat group think societies.
Taxes are sucking money out of the middle class and making them dependent on government in order to send their kid to college , pay their housing, pay their car, give to charity and save enough for retirement .
This is absolutely the fork in the road. The congressional elections are about the last chance and ACORN brown shirts are stealing election after election with fake votes, rigged counts and NOBODY is hearing the law abiding tax payer say, "ENOUGH!!" Stop the BS.
If the Iranians nuked DC while congress was in session with everybody in town.... I'd mourn for about 2 seconds, but would get over it quickly. I'd sure miss the Smithsonian, 8th and I, Iwo Memorial...... and that's about it.
although with the upswing it it tempting to jump back in i am holding off as i just do not trust it and watch each day for the freefall to begin again....this isn’t over by a long shot...
I remember during the last administration...we were told not to be fooled by small drops in the Dow.
exactly what i was thinking and about to say....
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