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Ice Likely Not a Big Factor in Buffalo Plane Crash
WSJ ^ | 3/26/2009 | Andy Pasztor

Posted on 03/26/2009 2:37:40 PM PDT by IFly4Him

Ice buildup wasn't a major factor in last month's Colgan Air Inc. commuter-plane crash that killed 50 people near Buffalo, N.Y., federal investigators said.

In its latest update on the investigation, the National Transportation Safety Board said ice "had a minimal impact" on the performance or handling of the twin engine turboprop. Instead, the safety board said the latest evidence indicates the plane didn't experience any mechanical problems and that it was flying and reacting normally to cockpit commands when its speed bled off and it went into a fatal roll.

(Excerpt) Read more at online.wsj.com ...


TOPICS: Extended News; News/Current Events; US: New York
KEYWORDS: icing; ntsb; planecrash
“We stand by” our crew training programs, the company said in the statement.

But they don't say whether they stand by their hiring standards... A simple student pilot recovery maneuver would have saved the plane and all aboard... The media's unresearched biases also prove to be wrong - once again...

1 posted on 03/26/2009 2:37:42 PM PDT by IFly4Him
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To: IFly4Him

Stall recovery from what altitude? I betcha that plane needs over 1000’ to recover from a low-speed, single wing airfoil stall. Don’t KNOW that, but just guessing.

*IF* they stalled one wing on approach, they were in deep weeds, obviously.

I’ll agree it does look a lot like pilot error.


2 posted on 03/26/2009 2:41:40 PM PDT by Blueflag (Res ipsa loquitur)
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To: IFly4Him
it was flying and reacting normally to cockpit commands when its speed bled off and it went into a fatal roll

Very strange circumstance then 

3 posted on 03/26/2009 2:42:03 PM PDT by valkyry1
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To: Blueflag

If the stall system had simply “pushed”, they would have had a chance; but when he yanked back, he put it in a spin. With that small tail and the torque on those engines - that was it...


4 posted on 03/26/2009 2:44:18 PM PDT by IFly4Him
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To: Blueflag

Forgot to mention - they were at 1,500 ft AGL...


5 posted on 03/26/2009 2:44:54 PM PDT by IFly4Him
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To: IFly4Him

OK, you’re right. Stall warning, stick shaker ... and the pilot pulled back on the column. Yikes.

Then one wing apparently stalled and they rolled over hard.

Tragic.


6 posted on 03/26/2009 2:46:35 PM PDT by Blueflag (Res ipsa loquitur)
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To: IFly4Him
BS. How do they know how much ice had accumulated on the wings? Ice didn't cause it but we don't know what did. (Why do we let bureaucrats do anything?)

ML/NJ

7 posted on 03/26/2009 2:58:12 PM PDT by ml/nj
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To: valkyry1
...reacting normally to cockpit commands when its speed bled off and it went into a fatal roll.

From the beginning, I was very suspicious of why things happened quickly it seems as soon as the flaps were deployed to their initial approach configuration.

It was reported that the aircraft went in to an immediate reversal of direction and then crashed.

Wouldn't this kind of thing (bleed off roll) happen if say one wing had flaps deployed but the other did not? Might this happen if a gear was stuck on one flap? say with icing or some other reason? Also woudn't this account for a pitch up, roll and quick bleed off of airspeed too?,

Does anyone know whether this airplane has two flap motors or. one? ( I have 50 plus years of pilot-flying experience in general aviation aircraft, but by no means am I an aviation expert.)

8 posted on 03/26/2009 3:06:11 PM PDT by 386wt (Striving to be as good as my dog thinks I am.)
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To: 386wt
"Does anyone know whether this airplane has two flap motors or. one?

I don't know. But, I think it would be premature to discount almost anything at this point including a catastrophic mechanical or hydraulic problem. Although, I agree with earlier poster that it is looking more like pilot error.

I was on a Delta Airlines 757 several years ago when, at cruising altitude, the speed brake on the port side deployed for no apparent reason. The plane rolled in a split second to almost a 90 degree bank. The pilot recovered quickly (I'm assuming by disengaging the auto-pilot) and we made an emergency, but otherwise uneventful landing - with the port-side speed brake fully extended the entire time.

My point is, at the Buffalo plane's altitude, almost any mechanical or hydraulic problem would give the operator virtually no time to correct it. PS - I'm a pilot too, just single engine.

9 posted on 03/26/2009 3:15:40 PM PDT by Big_Monkey
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To: Blueflag
...and the pilot pulled back on the column

Pilots are always taught from day one to immediately push the nose down (stick forward) in this situation, as well as other reactions like apply full power and level the wings. But nose down is first and foremost.

It's not likely the pilot reacted to a stall shaker warning by pulling the nose up.

10 posted on 03/26/2009 3:21:21 PM PDT by 386wt (Striving to be as good as my dog thinks I am.)
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To: ml/nj
They don't know how much ice, but we can look at other known factors and deduce that there wasn't anything of significance.

1) The clouds were layered that evening. Generally speaking, you need about 3,000 ft cloud thickness to generate ice.

2) The clouds were stratiform and there was no reported precip.

3) Planes were landing on the same approach every few minutes. It takes a lot of ice to bring down an airplane like the Q400 with it's modern construction and anti-ice features. No other aircraft reported anything of significance.

4) If icing had caused the stall, the flight data from the black box would have recorded a higher than normal true airspeed at the time control was lost. I obviously do not have access to the data, but that would be an obvious data point to review.

The data did indicate the yoke was moved "pitch up". Only a pilot can do that. That action would definitely induce a stall if they were already on the brink. It's pretty conclusive IMO...

11 posted on 03/26/2009 3:26:03 PM PDT by IFly4Him
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To: 386wt

The flight data recorder would have picked up the asymmetry. I imagine they would have been able to determine that forensically from the wrekage as well.


12 posted on 03/26/2009 3:27:26 PM PDT by IFly4Him
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To: IFly4Him
There was a stall-warning indicated by voice and flight data recorders, right? Or, maybe I'm just remembering it incorrectly.

What else could have caused a stall besides icing, improper deployment of flaps, improper airspeed through the throttle setting or catastrophic engine failure?

13 posted on 03/26/2009 3:33:25 PM PDT by Big_Monkey
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To: IFly4Him
Only a pilot can do that.

Sounds like you're a pilot. How many hours did you have before it became automatic for you to push forward when your airspeed was lower than you wanted it to be, especially near or at stall? I've never had any real icing so I don't know what the instruments might say but the stall warning would seem to be a dead giveaway.

ML/NJ

14 posted on 03/26/2009 3:51:00 PM PDT by ml/nj
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To: IFly4Him
1) The clouds were layered that evening. Generally speaking, you need about 3,000 ft cloud thickness to generate ice. 2) The clouds were stratiform and there was no reported precip. All I can tell you is that I live 5 miles south of the crash site and that evening was pretty windy, foggy, and misty with lite snow. My car was slightly slushy when I got out of work at 9PM, approximately three miles from the crash site, at the corner of Main and Transit, which is almost exactly between the crash site and the airport they were heading.
15 posted on 03/26/2009 3:51:18 PM PDT by SirFishalot
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To: IFly4Him

Did they ever find out why the pilot changed flight plans at the last minute?


16 posted on 03/26/2009 3:53:50 PM PDT by BunnySlippers (I LOVE BULL MARKETS . . .)
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To: Big_Monkey

Yes, the stall warning would be picked up by the CVR and the FDR. I have heard through the grapevine that the autopilot leveled the plane at 1,500 AGL but that the throttles were not pushed up to maintain airspeed (there are airline personnel that have also reviewed the data). Obviously that has not been confirmed pubically, but the cause of the stall will be revealed at some point.


17 posted on 03/26/2009 5:32:56 PM PDT by IFly4Him
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To: ml/nj

My best recollection is that I was taught the stall recovery technique in my second hour of flight training (i.e. lesson number two). It was automatic by the time I soloed at 17hrs (or my CFI would not have signed me off)

:)


18 posted on 03/26/2009 5:35:04 PM PDT by IFly4Him
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To: BunnySlippers

I think you may be referring to the crash in Montana over the weekend. No, as far as I know, the reason for the change of destination is not known. Having said that, it is not uncommon for pilots to do that, so I’m not sure how much of a factor that will be.


19 posted on 03/26/2009 5:37:39 PM PDT by IFly4Him
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To: 386wt

Yeah I know. I only fly single engine/propeller/ VFR and *I* know that. It’s just basic training — stall entry and recovery.


20 posted on 03/27/2009 4:00:50 AM PDT by Blueflag (Res ipsa loquitur)
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