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NY-20 Special: Five Things To Watch (Tedisco, GOP on verge of humiliating collapse)
The Fix (WaPo) ^ | March 25, 2009 | Chris Cillizza

Posted on 03/25/2009 7:05:59 PM PDT by St. Louis Conservative

The special election in New York's 20th district is just one week away and the level of national interest -- and involvement -- is growing rapidly.

The two national parties as well as a variety of interest groups are weighing in on the race and, although both sides are downplaying expectations, there is much at stake in the contest.

What's clear is that businessman Scott Murphy, the Democrat, has the momentum over state Assemblyman Jim Tedisco (R), and a loss for Republicans could be potentially disastrous for a party looking for good news.

The last week of any campaign has the potential to make or break a race -- and that is especially true in a special election where voters have paid little (or no) attention to the contest thus far.

What could those last minute developments be? Here are five:

(Excerpt) Read more at voices.washingtonpost.com ...


TOPICS: Miscellaneous; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: New York
KEYWORDS: jimtedisco; newyork; scottmurphy; specialelection
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If the GOP can't win a gerrymandered Republican district after the public has been exposed to Obama's socialism, then we are toast. I am not one to think this way, either.
1 posted on 03/25/2009 7:06:00 PM PDT by St. Louis Conservative
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To: St. Louis Conservative

By toast you mean that it is over for over? Why type of silly wording are you using here? It is one congressional seat in liberal New York that was held by a democrat. If we lose it not that a big deal.


2 posted on 03/25/2009 7:08:30 PM PDT by jveritas (God Bless our brave troops)
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To: jveritas

One house seat in and of itself means nothing. It’s hugely symbolic though. It represents conservatives vs socialists and the Obama agenda. It’s also a Republican district, despite being represented by a Democrat. Republicans held it up to 2006.


3 posted on 03/25/2009 7:10:15 PM PDT by St. Louis Conservative
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To: jveritas

The Democrat holding it was a fluke. This is a historically GOP district. If we can’t win back this seat, we’re less than useless (and Blackwell ought to resign if it happens).


4 posted on 03/25/2009 7:12:14 PM PDT by fieldmarshaldj (~"This is what happens when you find a stranger in the Alps !"~~)
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To: St. Louis Conservative

The problem is the democratic party is now a criminal operation of deception, propaganda, charactor assasination, lies, scams, payoffs, and extortion


5 posted on 03/25/2009 7:13:25 PM PDT by ronnie raygun (LONG LIVE THE REPUBLIC!)
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To: St. Louis Conservative

It is bad to lose, but no where near disastrous. Plus these one off elections never have any real tie to national trends.

My only problem with this loss is that the Dems have figured out a way to consistently win in congressional elections, and the GOP needs to figure out how to counteract whatever tactics there are using. Here in Central Florida, the Dem candidates have far superior ads running. The GOP ads were either too few or very ineffective. The GOP media machine seems to be dead since 2004.


6 posted on 03/25/2009 7:13:38 PM PDT by ilgipper
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To: St. Louis Conservative
The higher the turnout, the better for Democrats.

Republicans who hold a 70,000 person voter registration edge in the district.

the usual bias about "high turn out" in spite of contrary evidence.

7 posted on 03/25/2009 7:14:09 PM PDT by gusopol3
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To: St. Louis Conservative
I posted this on your earlier thread about the same subject:

Voters do not change in a period of 5 months. The democrats just won big last November and it is not easy to overcome this anti-Republican feeling in 5 months. It is going to take a time before people turn against the democrats in big numbers and even longer time in liberal states like New York. It is that simple.

8 posted on 03/25/2009 7:14:09 PM PDT by jveritas (God Bless our brave troops)
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To: fieldmarshaldj
Those are New Yorkers, they are very liberal and the Republicans among them are not conservatives to say the least. It will take time for the Republicans to come back and even a longer time in the liberal Northeast such in New York. The democrats won big last November and a full anti-democrat pro-Republican change among the voters is not going to occur in 5 months.

I think some people are acting very irrationaly here.

9 posted on 03/25/2009 7:17:32 PM PDT by jveritas (God Bless our brave troops)
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To: ilgipper

I’ve seen some great ads from the American Issues Project and Americans for Prosperity attacking the stimulus bill.


10 posted on 03/25/2009 7:18:42 PM PDT by St. Louis Conservative
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To: St. Louis Conservative

The author is, I believe, a Democratic operative. I’m not sure we should assume he is the best judge of who’s ahead. I also think it is silly to take adverse developments, if they happen, as the end of the world. It’s just another opportunity to learn and do better next time. I’m getting really weary of all the doom and gloom and the concentration on attacking other Republicans and conservatives rather than Democrats and socialists.


11 posted on 03/25/2009 7:22:11 PM PDT by liberlog
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To: jveritas

This is a Conservative district. This is the seat that sent Gerry Solomon not so long ago. His successor, Mike Sweeney, was ousted because of his poor personal behavior, NOT because he was a Republican. Gillibrand was a fluke upset in ‘06 because of that man (and she won again in ‘08 because the GOP didn’t seriously contest it, running a liberal RINO). I’ll emphasize again, this is a Republican, NOT a Democrat district. Our losing it absent a damaged incumbent is simply inexcusable. It would be a different story if you were talking about a Democrat district, but this isn’t one.


12 posted on 03/25/2009 7:23:25 PM PDT by fieldmarshaldj (~"This is what happens when you find a stranger in the Alps !"~~)
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To: ilgipper

I agree. During the 2006 elections, it seemed that the GOP was recycling old ads. It felt as though the GOP was afraid to attack (I know, what a shock).

As long as the GOP is afraid to really go after any and all rat, then we will continue to see these nail-biters. That’s why the rats are afraid of Rush, Chaney, Palin and Jindal. Not to mention Mark Levin.


13 posted on 03/25/2009 7:25:21 PM PDT by ABQHispConservative (A Blue Dog Democrat is an oxyMoron!)
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To: liberlog

I don’t attack Republicans or conservatives, but I do freak out when we don’t win Republican districts when people have seen what a socialist Obama is.

Also, Cillizza is not a Democrat operative either. He is citing internal polls, including a NRCC poll that puts the Democrat ahead by 2. Not good news at all.


14 posted on 03/25/2009 7:27:15 PM PDT by St. Louis Conservative
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To: fieldmarshaldj
Blackwell ought to resign if it happens

What does Blackwell have to do with this? Do you mean Steele?

15 posted on 03/25/2009 7:27:18 PM PDT by Lucius Cornelius Sulla ("men of intemperate minds cannot be free. Their passions forge their fetters." -- Edmund Burke)
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To: fieldmarshaldj

The democrats won 2 consecutive elections there as you are saying. If this is such a Conservative district then the voters should not elect a democrat twice in a row. Please stop overrating this more than it.


16 posted on 03/25/2009 7:27:45 PM PDT by jveritas (God Bless our brave troops)
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To: jveritas

Small rural towns in upstate are being overun with college students being bussed in from local colleges. Last week, they tried moving a polling place to the local college, townspeople were livid.


17 posted on 03/25/2009 7:31:34 PM PDT by Master of Orion
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To: St. Louis Conservative

This used to be a Republican district and it is not anymore because the democrats won there twice in a row. It is not that difficult to understand. You want to say the Republican Party is toast because they could not win a district in liberal New York that elected democrats to Congress in the last two consecutive terms then please feel free to do so. It is very silly.


18 posted on 03/25/2009 7:31:49 PM PDT by jveritas (God Bless our brave troops)
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To: jveritas

The “republican” last time was an uber-liberal who wrecked the state party and sued to get rid of his primary challengers.


19 posted on 03/25/2009 7:32:14 PM PDT by darkangel82 (I don't have a superiority complex, I'm just better than you.)
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To: St. Louis Conservative

Cizilla writes for the WaPo. I rest my case.


20 posted on 03/25/2009 7:33:08 PM PDT by liberlog
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