LAMBRO: Damaged brand with prospects

The Washington Times ^ | March 23, 2009 | Donald Lambro

[Scanian]

The Republican brand is badly damaged and won't be in the majority anytime soon. But independent campaign analysts say the GOP will likely make gubernatorial and House gains anyway in the 2009-10 election cycle.

The reasons have more to do with political geography and math than with any forecasts about what the economic climate will look like this year and next when the off-year and midterm elections will be influenced by the by whether the nation's economy responds to President Obama's stimulus programs.

Republicans will just have more opportunities than the Democrats next time around in the congressional and gubernatorial races.

Little attention is being paid to the governorship battlegrounds right now, but in the next two years, 38 states will hold gubernatorial elections and more Democratic seats will be at stake (21) than Republican seats (17).

More important, there are more vulnerable Democratic governorships in this cycle in heavily Republican states than vulnerable Republican ones in Democratic states.

"It's way too early to handicap overall prospects, but Republicans could make significant gains in governorships in 2010," elections analyst Nathan L. Gonzales wrote in the Rothenberg Political Report that tracks the elections.

"Democrats must now defend in a number of GOP-leaning states (such as Kansas, Oklahoma, Wyoming and Tennessee) that they've held for six years but are coming open because of term limits," he says.

[screaminsunshine]

Problem. 2010 will be too little too late.

[gridlock]

In New Jersey, Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine has grown increasingly unpopular - 38 percent favorable and 48 percent unfavorable, according to a recent Fairleigh Dickinson poll. Republicans are rallying their party behind former U.S. Attorney Christopher Christie. Mr. Corzine, who made millions on Wall Street as head of Goldman Sachs and spent $43 million on his last race, will plow whatever it takes into his re-election campaign. Veteran election trackers there say anyone with that much cash is not to be underestimated. But Democrats this time around are worried that, even with his vast wealth, Mr. Corzine could be pulled down by a worsening recession that has hit the state hard.

The problem is that the Republican Establishment seems determined, once again, to try to beat something with nothing. I am sure that Christopher Christie is a fine man, but he hasn't given anybody a reason to prefer him over Corzine.

Meanwhile, Steve Lonagan is out there fighting the good fight, and has solid record as a tax-fighter. Lonagan is beating Corzine in the latest Rasmussen poll by 8%, and yet everybody just assumes Christie is going to walk away with this nomination.