[Publius]

I've been cogitating about your contribution for the past hour, and it has crystallized my thought about the coming crisis.

There is an old saying in the military. "Amateurs think tactics; professionals think logistics." Without actually quoting that statement, you have proved it admirably. In a conflict with the US Armed Forces loyal to the government, American citizens won't stand a chance. They will be mowed down with enthusiasm. The inability to handle the logistics of standardized weaponry will spell the end of any resistance, no matter how well organized.

As an ex-Army officer (Vietnam era), I know that American troops will follow the orders of their commander in chief to the letter. They will do their duty. Whether those orders are illegal or inhumane will mean nothing. They will be followed, or else.

The only way to sap the will of the Armed Forces would be to "go Iraq", ie. an insurgency. This would involve things such as the assassination of elected officials and roadside IED's. Insurgents would have to blend in with their surrounding communities and count on the loyalty -- or the fear -- of their neighbors to protect them.

While some of our armchair Rambos here find this idea exciting, I view it as a vision of hell. I have no desire to kill my neighbors because their politics differ from mine.

[hiredhand]

You have spoken what I did not. I thought it was rather obvious, so I didn't mention it. Apparently it IS obvious...at least to you. If you've realized it, then others have as well, whether they admit it or not. I certainly don't make this junk up. Nor do I get any satisfaction from writing about it. To be honest, it rather depresses me every time I put these thoughts on this forum.

What you've mentioned is the main reason I've been telling people that a civil conflict on our soil is to be avoided at almost all cost. Once committed people are involved, there will be assassinations, murder, kidnappings, torture, bombings, essential service disruptions, and other extreme unpleasantries which can be proven as FACT in similar circumstances elsewhere in this world, but seem to be overlooked and ignored by a certain number of enthusiastic Patriots here. Iraq is a good example, as is Northern Ireland. Everybody thinks that an all out civil conflict will be instant death or victory. Nobody thinks of the midnight kidnappings, the torture, or the psychological operations aspect of it. Our nation would turn into a living hell within a month, and those who really believe they want civil war here are simply insane. It would be a constant and REAL environment of fear, uncertainty, and doubt. If people think dealing with financial collapse is stressful, just wait until we're embroiled in civil war!

However, having said that.... should a certain number of truly "committed" people catalyze into an organized force, and not some disillusioned bunch of idiots with no experience, then this nation will have a SEVERE problem on its hands in very short order.

But IF that doesn't happen...and we all hope and pray that it does NOT, then logistics is certainly the area to focus on.

As I tried to explain; I'm not advocating anything, but simply trying to be a realist. I once was, and continue to be an analyst....no more, and no less.

[central_va]

If the South were to be invade today and the US Army to occupy the entire Southland, I estimate the size of the Army needed to do that to be about 12 Million. Currently the entire US Army is about 1/12 of that needed number. LOL. COme on.

[central_va]

I would say in this scenario, the mobilization to take at least a year, with not much happening tactically at first.