Posted on 02/27/2009 1:20:57 PM PST by fightin bronco
As stocks on Friday meandered to another month of losses, investors were especially focused on the S&P 500 Index and whether the broad market gauge would close above or below its November lows, with a finish above 740 to 750 seen as a victory of sorts
After the worst January performance in its 113-year history, the Dow industrials were on track for a February decline of more than 900 points or 11.3%. As things stood with 30 minutes to go before the closing bell, the Dow was on track for its worst February point drop ever, and its second-worst percentage drop since 1933, when it lost 15.6%.
(Excerpt) Read more at marketwatch.com ...
Even Hillary would have not have moved this fast to socialize the country. Obama is the capitalist free-marketeer's worst nightmare. It will take a generation to undo the harm he'll cause.
I did. I looked it up.
Closing on Nov. 5, 2008 was 9139.27. Closing today was 7062.93. =2073.34.
He will cost us more than that, if we let him—our country, our birthright and our culture.
LOL.
Saw this on the web.
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Interesting analysis done today on the DOW 30:
For the analysis they used 3 groups in the DOW. Group C which is the worst companies (BAC, C, AXP, AA and GM)
Group B (INTC, MSFT, DIS, PFE, MRK, HD, JPM, HPQ, GE, DD, CAT and BA)
Group A (MMM, T, CVX, XOM, IBM, JNJ, MCD, KO, PG, WMT, KFT, VZ and UTX)
Group C goes to zero....loss to the DOW -208 points
Group B goes to zero....loss to the DOW -1,944
Group A is worth 5,000 points on the DOW
So you want to pick your bottom 1,000, 3,000, 5,000?
Lets say group C all go to zero. Group B goes down 50% and Group C goes down 25%. That puts the DOW at 4,700. Lets say group C goes to zero, group B goes to zero and group A goes down 50%. That puts the DOW at 2,500. All depends on Group A!
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Based on this analysis, it seems to me that the bottom near term (1-2 years) is somewhere above 4000. B and C are not going to zero, and Group A is not likely to collectively go down 50 percent, although some of them might. Some of them are sitting on a pile of cash. Typical patterns would have the Dow going down in reaction to bad news or bad earnings, and reaching a new low point, at which time there is a short term rally, and then a holding pattern for a while, til something else happens that starts the downward trend again. The market will not move down all at once, or in a straight line, but it will instead be a long, drawn out process.
If the recession continues long enough, the Dow could eventually go below 4000. That depends on how soon this government gives up on trying to spend its way out of the recession. I’m not confident that the administration or Congress will give up on its radical agenda anytime soon, but if there is enough blowback on these plans, they might ease up some, and then the elections of 2010 might help further slow down the drive to socialism. If that happens, recovery can possibly begin in 2011. If not, if banks and health care and auto manufacturing and other key industries become government entities, the market will keep going down. When the New Deal programs began taking hold in 1935-37, many years after the crash, the market continued to make new lows. At its lowest, it lost 90 percent of its value, which, in today’s terms, would mean Dow 1400. That is not out of the realm of possibility.
Then, there is the chance of inflation. If the government spends money, but cannot convince the Chinese to buy Treasuries, then that means it will be printing money. Inflation will make a terrible situation even worse, as it will wipe out people’s savings, but will not result in an increase in production. Incomes always lag prices, and consumer spending will be reduced even further, which will diminish the chance of recovery.
At this point, I would not hold any stocks. Unfortunately, shorting should not be done except by expert traders, because upswings can be violent and quick, even though they will ultimately fail. Most of the big rallies in history occurred in the 1930s, during the depression. Similar rallies are entirely likely in this recession.
Cash and treasuries are ok for now, but be watchful for inflation.
Don’t rely on the FDIC. It cannot protect us if the entire system fails, it can only function if there are isolated bank failures. Try to own things that will retain value no matter what, that can be useful even If there is inflation or if the economy collapses. Even if the chance of such terrible problems is small, it is not so small that we shouldn’t insure against it. We insure our cars and homes against much more remote calamities.
Sorry to be so negative. I hope I’m wrong.
You are so right. Sometimes I only think in terms of $$$$ and 10 trillion is the number I see over the next 4 years. The total damages will far exceed anything we have ever anticipated.
The good news... One term President. There is no freaking way in hell Obama is ever elected again.
Bye bye now
He knows it...Emmanuel (ex-Freddie Mac) knows it. Raines and Gorelick (Fannie Mae) know it. Why Americans don't know it is a direct result of our Pravda/NEA! It's time the world knows that the foxes are running the hen house!
You're right but my point was back when he was nominated in Aug 2008 the DOW was 11,715. It's been a painful, steady downhill slide since then.
You've made my weekend....finally a "Conservative Plan" we can believe in! (My circle of friends didn't warn me). I do have one liberal ex-friend who accidentally went on an extended vacation in October, 2007 and pulled all his money out of the market.....by the time he got back, it was clear his 'plan' was brilliant and he's sticking to it! I hate it when 'plans' come together for libs!
ditto
Brilliant analysis (the entire post) that every American should be required to read and understand (especially the useful idiots that voted for 0). Several of the 'violent upswings' will occur in 2010 everytime it appears that the conservative message is being heard and understood! As you say, not for the feint of heart!
July 2008, the SEC yanked the 'uptick rule' and the requirement to 'deliver' shorted securities to preclude 'naked short selling'. It was that day in July, 2008 when the "Shorts win, Longs lose" scenario was set up to enrich the Soros minions, and impoverish the American White Widows club who have 'ruled' the markets! Every black man has been taught that he's working for rich white widows, and it's time for reparations to begin....(/s I wish)
The foxes are having lavish chicken dinners.
Oh, ok. I missed the “nominated” part.
It’s way over used, and it is used as an excuse and an attack method, no doubt. That said, predatory lending is a reality.
I can cite several examples, if need be.
Please do! But in your own self defense, be sure to eliminate those banks who had an ACORN thug standing next to them with that funny pencil looking thing pointing at them in their coat pocket (the new bank robbers don't bother with notes any more, they're 'NO-DOC')!
What ACORN thugs? You have evidence that none of us do?
The simple facts are that banks make more money, a lot more, upfront and down the line, on non conforming, Fannie/Freddie backed loans. There is no requirement that a bank participates in these programs.
There are plenty of banks that do not make non conforming loans. There are banks that do not participate in Fannie/Freddie, or any other Gov’t “welfare” sponsored loans. My bank, City National Bank, for instance doesn’t, I don’t think they ever have, and they’re one of the strongest banks in the Nation.
Banks choose to participate in order to reap the financial rewards. And why wouldn’t they? There are no limits on what they can charge for upfront and load into the costs of the loan, the interest rate are among the highest allowed by laws, and the Gov’t guarantee’s the loan.
Therefore, they target their marketing to those who would be in need of those types of loans in order to buy a home. That is the definition of predatory.
Now if you had said “Impeach the illegal bastard NOW” we’d have some basis for agreement!
make that July, 2007
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