Posted on 02/26/2009 8:19:28 AM PST by Halfmanhalfamazing
Not the most recognizable name in the Soviet Union’s 1930’s bloodletting, Kondratiev — also transliterated Kondratieff — was a pre-Keynesian economist of some note, who had a prominent hand in the fledgling USSR’s early agricultural direction.
Thus far goes the portfolio of many a forgotten academic or bureaucrat shot by Stalin.
But Kondratiev made a contribution still much remembered — and one that might just be due to re-emerge from its occult hibernation.
In a series of 1920’s papers, Kondratiev worked out the theory that capitalism had 50-to-60-year economic supercycles. Though not strictly the first to so hypothesize, he put the idea on the map; the (alleged) pattern still bears the name “Kondratiev wave” or “Kondratiev cycle”.
His belief that the intermittent major crises punctuating capitalism were not building towards systemic implosion but clearing the economic debris of bygone ages and allowing new growth were not the least of what got him into hot water with Stalin.
“Creative destruction,” as Joseph Schumpeter would call it, adapting the idea.
Though sidelined from mainline economics for much of the 20th century, Kondratiev waves have never gone entirely out of fashion. Congenial to any number of collateral theoretical hobbyhorses — technological innovation, entrepreneurship, generational psychology, statecraft, and the eternal bracing for end times right around the corner — Kondratiev waves are a niche player in economic theory both conventional and otherwise.
This is the easiest way to summarize the Wave Theory:
The Kondratiev wave by four 'seasons', namely, the Kondratiev Spring (improvement – plateau) and Summer (acceleration – prosperity) of the ascendant period and the Kondratiev Fall (recession – plateau) and Winter (acceleration – depression) of the downward period.
I saw another article that also theorized four periods, similar to these, and tied it in to generations. Each generation had an overall character—Visionary/Idealist, Nomad/Pragmatist....can’t remember the others. It also puts us heading into winter. Interesting stuff. Life has a rhythm. This stuff has some credibility.
There's a reason why God commanded Israel to clear away all the economic debris and restore hereditary properties (i.e., land holdings) every 50 years with the Jubilee.
Shalom.
INTERESTING.
Thanks.
Interesting. Thanks for posting.
We have entered the downside of the current K-wave. This wave could last anywhere from nine to twenty years as we saw in earlier winter K-waves.
For the Dow Jones Industrials, in theory at least that could translate into a fall back to 1000. While that may be only for some super bears vivid imagination we believe that at a minimum the Dow Jones Industrials will ultimately fall at least 50%-60% or down to around 5000. The highs of January 2000 are but a dream for years to come.
The winter of the K-wave is upon us. See Cliff Droke’s theory on a 2008 to 2014 “hard winter”.
above excerpts from a link in the article...here...
http://www.kwaves.com/kond_overview.htm
From another famous Russian,...
The supremacy of finance capital over all other forms of capital means the predominance of the rentier and of the financial oligarchy; it means that a small number of financially “powerful” states stand out among all the rest. The extent to which this process is going on may be judged from the statistics on emissions, i.e., the issue of all kinds of securities. - Vladimir Ilyich Lenin “Imperialism, the Highest Stage of Capitalism”
http://www.marxists.org/archive/lenin/works/1916/imp-hsc/ch03.htm
Thanks for the thoughtful reply.
As I read these things about the Kwave and so forth, it strikes me just how much better capitalism is than socialism.
Socialism will only wave once. Then it will be permanently stuck in winter. How many decades has Cuba been in winter? The USSR was in winter for dedades. Zimbabwe, Venezuela, we can look across the globe and see neverending big government winters all over the place.
In Capitalism, once winter ends spring comes again.
This is clearly better.
D-Process Ping.
There must be one in there for the babyboomers. If not, I nominate hedonist/consumer. Before anyone beats me upside the head for attacking babyboomers, I are one!
Here it is. Very interesting stuff. I’m a post boomer “nomad/pragmatist.” I find a lot of sense in their analysis. It’s so spot on it’s scary. This is a somewhat lengthy article, but definitely worth the read:
http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/quinn/2009/0210.html
"Facts" tend to survive based upon how interesting they are, rather than whether or not they are true. - Unknown
I should hasten to NB here for Freepers WHY Kondratrieff was purged by Stalin.
Kondratieff was given the job of researching which economic system more efficiently allocated capital and scarce resources, not to discover patterns in the western capitalist systems, per se.
Kondratieff found that, for all our faults and hiccups, the western capitalist economies allocated capital more efficiently, more consistently, than a centrally-planned economy. The nut of his finding was this: When we screw up and mis-allocate funds in the capitalist system, MOST of the time, we mis-allocate small, and we make a lot of little mis-allocations and corrections.
HOWEVER... every 60 years or so, credit builds up to a point where we have huge mis-allocations of capital - oh, and they most often involve land/real estate. Thus it has been in Japan, in the US in 1873, 1933, 2008. In 1873, it was railroad land development; in ‘33, it was farm/ag land. In 2008, it was residential real estate.
For finding this, Stalin purged (ie, killed) Kondratieff.
The most famous side-result of Kondratieff is what we know as the “long wave” or “supercycle” stuff today, too often over-promoted by Elliot Wave adherents.
BTW — what Kondratieff discovered is well known by the Chinese and farmers/ranchers in the US. It is this: wealth does not last past the third generation. Two different cultures, thousands of years apart - have the same maxim - it means that what is going on in the K-cycle isn’t so much an issue of economics as it is of human nature.
The ideas you refer to were explained in a book called “The Fourth Turning.” Somewhat left-leaning authors, but still an informative and interesting thesis.
Perhaps even more interesting are the books on the Grand Supercycle Crash now upon us, written by Elliott Wave Theorist Robert Prechter. The guy may be a lousy market timer, but he does seem better than most at predicting sequences and degrees of outcome.
Prechter’s forecast for the bottom of the Dow: 300. With real estate values bottoming at 10% of the peak...
The problem with such theories is that the frequency of recessions is such that one can attribute anything to the phenomena. There are too many powerful variables at operation to render wave functions explicit causes, whether wars, politics, or technological discontinuities. "All other things" can't be held constant.
That’s the story as I understand it as well.
I couldn’t find a link on it though. Do you have one?
Thanks in advance
I’ll check him out. Thanks.
Seven years to the Jubilee yearAmen !
shalom b'SHEM Yah'shua HaMashiach Adonai
when YHvH will clear out the debris.
Human history actually contains a number of predictable cycles--predictable in terms of order-of-event, not necessarily exact time, because while one can predict that continually adding weight will eventually break the camel's back, there are too many variables to predict exactly which straw will do it.
Shalom.
The info I have is that he was sent to Siberia.
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