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On Hyperinflation (Dire predictions. Be forewarned.)
The Market Ticker - Commentary on the Capital Markets ^ | 1/12/09 | Karl Denninger

Posted on 01/12/2009 10:10:30 AM PST by randita

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To: MittFan08
It's hard to buy a billion dollars of mint Babe Ruth cards, or NIB Colt Pythons. Gold is a pain and you have to pay people to store it.

Buying US Treasuries is like becoming Saddams best friend for life. Not so great, but where else do you plop ten million, a hundred million, ten billion dollars and not only have it safe, but a little profit?

41 posted on 01/12/2009 11:11:19 AM PST by Leisler (It is always said it is for the children. (Not your children..others...somewhere))
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To: yefragetuwrabrumuy
The odds are that after just a few years, he will be helpless, hopeless, and prematurely aged by things beyond his power to control.

Photobucket

42 posted on 01/12/2009 11:12:27 AM PST by Jackknife (Chuck Norris grinds his coffee with his teeth, and boils his water with his rage)
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To: milwguy
If the rest of the world refuses to fund our Trillion $ stimulus package, what then? Supply/demand dynamics can only be delayed for so long, if their is no external demand for the huge bond issuance to come this year from the Gov’t, the yeild must rise to attract buyers.

That will be the tipping point...

43 posted on 01/12/2009 11:13:35 AM PST by GOPJ ("A consensus of 100 scientists is undone by one fact." - - Einstein (take that Al Gore))
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To: randita

I dunno, I see this all as being a GOOD thing. This is how we get our country back...


44 posted on 01/12/2009 11:17:32 AM PST by wastoute
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To: randita

I dunno, I see this all as being a GOOD thing. This is how we get our country back...


45 posted on 01/12/2009 11:17:39 AM PST by wastoute
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To: wastoute

Vista


46 posted on 01/12/2009 11:18:02 AM PST by wastoute
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To: kingpins9
Fed stopped reporting M3p

Using algebra, couldn't we get this figure ourselves?

We know they're printing at 100% capacity.

I've even heard outsourcing to the Swiss?

47 posted on 01/12/2009 11:18:21 AM PST by norraad ("What light!">Blues Brothers)
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To: MittFan08
"China will likely try to prod us constructively into more responsible fiscal policies by making threats to do so."

Good luck to them on that. Its never worked when conservatives tried it.

48 posted on 01/12/2009 11:19:23 AM PST by Leisler (It is always said it is for the children. (Not your children..others...somewhere))
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To: wastoute

“I dunno, I see this all as being a GOOD thing. This is how we get our country back...”

I think illegal immigrants are saying the same thing.


49 posted on 01/12/2009 11:21:38 AM PST by Hacklehead (Liberalism is the art of taking what works, breaking it, and then blaming conservatives.)
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To: hiredhand

same situation here!


50 posted on 01/12/2009 11:27:01 AM PST by woollyone ("When the tide is low, even a shrimp has its own puddle." - Vance Havner)
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To: GOPJ

During the revolution the Continental Congress printed dollar bills, redeemed in Spanish gold dollars( although they didn’t have any, it was a lie ). When they first came out, a paper dollar would pay a soldiers pay for a month. Seven years later after running the presses, the same bill would buy a small loaf of bread.

The Federal Government will do, take, force, impoverish, print what ever it has to do to take care of those near and dear to it. And, we are not the ones.


51 posted on 01/12/2009 11:27:46 AM PST by Leisler (It is always said it is for the children. (Not your children..others...somewhere))
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To: Travis McGee; All
Well, the Feds are burning up the presses, printing more & more paper bills,

And...

Giving away trillions ( Gee, I can recall when a billion was Big Bucks... ) of Everybody Else's Money.

This tells me:

1)- Money will be worth less ( or is that worthless? )

2)- We now have a Looter's Economy...


52 posted on 01/12/2009 11:34:31 AM PST by backhoe (All across America, the Lights are going out...)
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To: Travis McGee

Thanks.

Think I’ll try ‘n start me a garden. Beans, ‘taters ‘n ‘maters first, then....


53 posted on 01/12/2009 11:37:25 AM PST by wizr (Jesus, bluegrass, best friends 'n a beer.)
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To: kingpins9

“They don’t want the people to know how much money is actually in circulation.”

I think this is the key when it comes to hyper or runnaway inflation. The article’s author says, “’Hyperinflation’, or even ‘Serious Inflation’ (similar to what we had in the 1970s) is impossible without a means to transmit the rise in prices into wages,” I think is misguided. All that is needed for it to occur is for everyone to think their money is becoming worthless, and for them to get rid of it as soon as possible.


54 posted on 01/12/2009 11:49:05 AM PST by Tublecane
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To: Jackknife
Pray that our nation's leaders aren't stupid enough to set in motion such a course of action either by accident or under the foolish belief that they can "keep the outcome under control".

Have no fear, Zero's got it all under control!


55 posted on 01/12/2009 11:50:07 AM PST by COBOL2Java (Obamanation: an imploding administration headed by a clueless schmuck)
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To: yefragetuwrabrumuy

“The first is that the typical American is not going to revolt as long as he has a roof over his head, and food in his belly. This was the single reason that ‘Ol’ Frank’ Roosevelt succeeded where Herbert Hoover failed.”

I don’t understand this point. FDR did not put roofs in over the heads and food in the bellies of the general population any better than did Hoover. What worked for Frank, in my opinion, was the beginning of “identity politics,” and the creation of coalitions of voters who depended on a particular candidate to get them goodies. But perhaps that’s what you meant in the first place.


56 posted on 01/12/2009 11:52:30 AM PST by Tublecane
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To: sickoflibs

“Liberal Cramer on CNBC says Obama needs to create inflation to start another boom.”

Of course. That’s what we’ve been doing all along, replacing old speculative bubbles and (”clusters of error”) with new speculative bubbles. How could it fail?

What’s that you say? It’s failed a million times already in human history? Well, be that as it may, we can’t just do nothing? What’s that you say? Yes we can? Okay.


57 posted on 01/12/2009 11:55:45 AM PST by Tublecane
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To: randita

So far I see deflation happening.

My children’s private school did not raise tuition for the first time in all 8 years by kids have been attending there. They usually raise it by 5-6%.

They are losing families due to rising unemployment/layoffs and therefore are trying to stem the bleeding.


58 posted on 01/12/2009 12:06:23 PM PST by olivia3boys
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To: hiredhand
I think I'm changing the subtitle line of my new novel to:

"The long emergency and the struggle for America, through the Greater Depression and Civil War Two."

This country won't come through another depression intact, as a free constitutional republic of 50 states.


59 posted on 01/12/2009 12:11:11 PM PST by Travis McGee (www.EnemiesForeignAndDomestic.com)
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To: Tublecane; dalereed

FDR created the Federal Surplus Relief Corporation, whose purpose was to do something bizarre. Even in the Dust Bowl years, the rest of America’s farmers produced far too much food, at the same time people were starving. The FSRC was to relieve both of these problems.

This drove prices into the basement at a time when deflation was already bad. A bushel of wheat cost 50 cents, and farmers were burning corn for heat. It was said that agricultural surplus hurt farmers worse than the Dust Bowl.

One of the first actions of the FSRC was to slaughter and dispose of six million pigs. As the saying went at the time, “Then Ol’ Frank killed all the little pigs.” This was done to help the most farmers at once, because pig farming has long been far more decentralized than chicken or beef. Even today, pig farmers will tell you that they always walk the razor’s edge with pork prices. A few pennies in the wrong direction could wipe them out.

On the other side of the coin, the FSRC provided hundreds of tons of food to government and private relief agencies to feed the millions of hungry people.

dalereed: Say what you want about “cash payments to people” welfare, but when people are starving, they will vote for the devil himself if he promises them food.

Hoover was right that his economic program would have restored America faster, but even though he eventually realized that food had to be redistributed, he hesitated just long enough that the hungry public turned on him with fury that still exists. Giving starving people food is not welfare—it is national defense.


60 posted on 01/12/2009 12:43:52 PM PST by yefragetuwrabrumuy
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