Posted on 01/11/2009 5:45:11 PM PST by Toki
About the only economic break most Americans have gotten in the last six months has been the drastic drop in the price of oil, which has fallen even more precipitously than it rose. In a year's time, a commodity that was theoretically priced according to supply and demand doubled from $69 a barrel to nearly $150, and then, in a period of just three months, crashed along with the stock market.
So what happened? It's a complicated question, and there are lots of theories. But as correspondent Steve Kroft reports, many people believe it was a speculative bubble, not unlike the one that caused the housing crisis, and that it had more to do with traders and speculators on Wall Street than with oil company executives or sheiks in Saudi Arabia.
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"Approximately 60 to 70 percent of the oil contracts in the futures markets are now held by speculative entities. Not by companies that need oil, not by the airlines, not by the oil companies. But by investors that are looking to make money from their speculative positions," Gilligan explained.
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It's impossible to tell exactly who was buying and selling all those oil contracts because most of the trading is now conducted in secret, with no public scrutiny or government oversight. Over time, the big Wall Street banks were allowed to buy and sell as many oil contracts as they wanted for their clients, circumventing regulations intended to limit speculation. And in 2000, Congress effectively deregulated the futures market, granting exemptions for complicated derivative investments called oil swaps, as well as electronic trading on private exchanges.
(Excerpt) Read more at cbsnews.com ...
Let’s see... Demand drops 47% and price drops 50%.
Hmmmm.... makes no sense to me. Cannot get my head around it.
G-D puzzle.
You ought to try life without speculators sometime. Just go to a muslim country.
I guess you missed all the discussion of Hedge funds and investment banks getting involved. Sorta like diversifying the wealth, so to speak...
Speculators. And by speculators I mean the saucer men who control our economy.
As a contributor, not the sole cause, I noticed it peaked around the time the Olympics started, at which point China stopped buying massive amounts.
Speculation is a part of market activity. Efficient markets punish speculators. Government policies encouraged and enabled the speculative bubble.
Energy markets seem to have more volatility than other markets. Energy is difficult to develop and there are few substitutes for certain kinds of energy. Poor investment decisions and government meddling can lead to volatile prices.
“Let’s see... Demand drops 47% and price drops 50%.”
Did you even watch the report? The oil supply expert on 60 minutes said demand had dropped 5% and the price had dropped 75%.
Not that facts matter to anyone determined to worship at the altar of Wall Street investment banks, as many here are ...
Anyone doubting that investment banks had the capital to influence markets like this is very naive. The combined wealth of the big investment banks and hedge funds is staggering, and then you add in the fact that they were allowed to be leveraged by ratios up to 30:1. So you multiply the aggregate wealth of all these huge institutional investors, pension funds and billionaires by thirty and you get an idea the amount of capital at work here.
Congress could have had a large effect if they had moved to allow more drilling. Since they didn’t the “peak oil” theorists were able to drive speculation. High oil helped to tank the housing bubble.
But if you CHOOSE to believe CBS fine.
“But if you CHOOSE to believe CBS fine.”
I wasn’t quoting “CBS” I was quoting Michael Masters, a hedge fund manager whose expertise is tracking the flow of oil in the markets. By the way, please produce a link where Saudi Arabia indicates that it’s only selling 47% as much oil.
As measured in barrels or dollars? Dollars, I'd believe. Barrels, no way.
Hmmmmmmm, we’re back up to 1.59 gal. regular and climbing in central Texas. Lies and damned lies. Meanwhile, what does Comrade Pelosi say?
Impossible!
Except the George Bush memo, Couric sliming Palin, the hatchet job on Reagan that got squashed...
No, you're right! CBS is an objective reporter of fact.
They would never subject reporting to preconceived political opinions.
Demand drops, price drops. That is the macro economic point.
Demand has not dropped 47% by any stretch of the imagination.
I don’t get it. Oil per barrel is under 40 bucks, and gas is still over 2 bucks for middle and premium gas?
You are free to correlate deliveries to demand as you see fit. However if you would deliver without a purchase order I doubt you would be in business long.
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