The failed Muslim states to come[Spengler]

Asia Times Online ^ | 16 Dec 2008 | Spengler

[BGHater]

Financial crises, like epidemics, kill the unhealthy first. The present crisis is painful for most of the world but deadly for many Muslim countries, and especially so for the most populous ones. Policy makers have not begun to assess the damage.

The diplomatic strategy of the industrial nations now resembles a James Clavell potboiler, in which an earthquake interrupts a hopelessly immured plot. Moderate Islam was the El Dorado of the diplomatic consensus. It might have been the case that Pakistan could be tethered to Western interests, or that Iran could be engaged peacefully, or that Turkey would incubate a moderate form of Islam. I considered all of this delusional, but the truth is that we shall never know. The financial crisis will sort them out first.

As I commented in the late autumn, the world is not flat, but flattened (see Asia Times Online, October 28, 2008), leaving the economies of the largest Muslim countries in ruins. It is hard to forecast the political fallout, for when each available choice leads to a failed state, it is a matter of indifference which one you adopt. As state finances crumble, states will become less important, and freebooters will seize the stage. Think of the Mumbai terrorists as a political cognate of the Somali pirates, and the character of a Middle East made up of failed states comes into focus.

[Travis McGee]

Eventually, the West will be forced to impose a quarantine on the islamic world.

[Joe Boucher]

Let them eat cake.

[Lurker]

Eventually, the West will be forced to impose a quarantine on the islamic world.

That's assuming their world doesn't become our world in the next generation.

Personally I'd rather impose The Coulter Option on them.

L

[Alberta's Child]

As state finances crumble, states will become less important, and freebooters will seize the stage. Think of the Mumbai terrorists as a political cognate of the Somali pirates, and the character of a Middle East made up of failed states comes into focus.

Very astute observation. We've already seen a lot of this in the Middle East, and elsewhere in the world (the Mafia is a classic example, and Hezbollah may be the best modern example). What might this mean in a place like New York or California where state governments right here in the U.S. are on the brink of financial collapse?

[WILLIALAL]

If you read the whole article, it paints a very bleak future not only for the Middle east, but for all of us who will suffer from the hands of the thugs who will take over when these states fail and there is no one to put things back together in a peaceful manner.

[Alberta's Child]

Right. But that's why I used the Mafia and Hezbollah as examples of the "parallel institutions" that the author suggested would replace these governments. These organizations may have been run by thugs, but in places where they were/are powerful they do tend to operate in a rational manner that often mirrors a government institution in every sense of the word except the "legal" part.

At some level, an orderly process would have to be constructed and maintained in order for anything to work at all in these places.

[Salgak]

The problem becomes, what if we have to impose a John Ringo Option Zero ???

[Pete98]

I wouldn’t worry. All those 3rd-worlders fleeing the collapse of their failed states can just come here and get on welfare.

[crghill]

Very cheery assessment. Me fears he is onto something though!

[ScreamingFist]

All that would be left after it swept across the country is former military who served from 1973-1989.

Option Zero is truly terrifying.

[Biggirl]

The only rich Muslim countries are the oil producing ones, that is it.

[Travis McGee]

It might have to come to that. Of course,
we might find out if abdul will pray to a smoking crater first.

[Citizen Blade]

Eventually, the West will be forced to impose a quarantine on the islamic world.

I think the first Westerners to really go brutal in this war will be the Europeans. When their restive Muslim minorities go from the level of nuisance to existential threat, you'll see the Europeans revert to their historic practices of brutality and ethnic cleansing. The post WW2 period is the longest period of peace in Europe in centuries.

For example, The French suburbs that house the Muslim minority were designed with urban pacification in mind. They can be sealed off relatively easily, and their residents left to rot.

[Ronin]

The whole article is interesting, but to me the most fascinating point was made at the ending when he discussed the Mumbai attack.

I remember at the start of the incident when they were talking about 20 to 20 terrorists — and then end when the number dropped to 10 — 9 dead and one captured. I didn’t think much of it at the time.

I think he’s right. There was more than 10. Total number of shooters above 20 and quite a number preset in place to provide logistics.

Scary.

[Travis McGee]

I disagree. French fathers will advise their daughters to just wear a veil, for their safety.

Two generations later, they’ll be bowing to mecca.