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Bond Bubble Hits Manic Stage
Financial Sense ^ | 12/12/08 | Michael Pento

Posted on 12/12/2008 11:51:18 PM PST by TigerLikesRooster

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To: slnk_rules
I might give it a try. I need a new spoon and a plate.:-)
21 posted on 12/13/2008 4:43:55 AM PST by TigerLikesRooster (kim jong-il, chia head, ppogri, In Grim Reaper we trust)
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To: TigerLikesRooster

“To receive zero percent interest after loaning your money to the government for one month is ridiculous.”

And yet millions of people do this yearly, GIVING Uncle Sam their hard earned cash while salivating over a ‘tax refund’ at the end of the year and planning a vacation somewhere warm with their own, returned, ‘worth-less’ cash! *Rolleyes*

When I was in the military, we were CONSTANTLY bombarded to buy Savings Bonds directly from our paychecks each month. No, thanks! Even way back when my money was working harder for me than a Savings Bond ever could.

How sad to practically FORCE military members to support the Government with their hard-earned dollars!


22 posted on 12/13/2008 4:56:37 AM PST by Diana in Wisconsin ('Taking the moderate path of appeasement leads to abysmal defeat.' - Rush on 11/05/08)
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To: BobS

http://www.vicefunds.com/

Check out The Vice Fund, first link on the left. One of my favorites to recommend to contrarian investors like me.

The last thing people give up in hard times are liquor, lottery tickets and cigarettes. The last thing the Government usually cuts is defense. Well, with THIS upcoming administration, I’m not to sure about that, but the other ‘vices’ will make up for any loses there.

People will definitely be drinking more if they lose all of their money, and we all know how much our new President just LOVES his Kools, LOL! :)


23 posted on 12/13/2008 5:03:08 AM PST by Diana in Wisconsin ('Taking the moderate path of appeasement leads to abysmal defeat.' - Rush on 11/05/08)
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To: slnk_rules

I’m with you, 100%. Our gold & silver have quadrupled in 10 years’ time. Dad & I invested out inheritance from Grandpa, and he’s smiling down on us right now, I’m bettin’! :)


24 posted on 12/13/2008 5:05:37 AM PST by Diana in Wisconsin ('Taking the moderate path of appeasement leads to abysmal defeat.' - Rush on 11/05/08)
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To: TigerLikesRooster

vfiix


25 posted on 12/13/2008 5:19:44 AM PST by CGASMIA68
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To: eyedigress

WHAT?

My Bond fund lost as much as my equities fund. Can you explain that one?


26 posted on 12/13/2008 5:21:29 AM PST by Recovering Ex-hippie (Obozo.....friend of dictators and wannabee revoluuuushionaries !)
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To: TigerLikesRooster
Oh yeah. For years, Japanese housewives (the family investors) have been doing mini carry trades against the yen. They borrow money at functionally 0 per cent, and then short the yen against any high yeilding currency. You can do the same thing yourself. There is even a bank here in the USA (I think the name is Everbank) who will allow you to buy CDs denominated in Yen, Suisse Francs, Oz dollars or Brazilian reales. There are probably more of those (countries) by now. Borrow dollars at zero or close to it, invest them at 7%. Feel like a big time tycoon! My mom has just a few thousand in Brazilian reales. Her return last year was north of 9%. If you play it right, you get both the interest AND the currency appreciation against the dollar....IF it appreciates agaist the dollar.... If the trade goes the other way and the dollar appreciates further against those currencies, you could lose money.

How 'bout that? Your own mini hedge fund!!!!!

27 posted on 12/13/2008 5:28:08 AM PST by slnk_rules (http://mises.org)
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To: TigerLikesRooster

I’m confused. Is this really a “bubble?” I think it is more of a flight to safety without a particular expectation of financial growth. For example, I had my broker move all my 401K out of mutual funds and into treasury back securities the day before the election. I really didn’t care what the return would be, so long as the face value didn’t crash and was backed by “the full faith and credit” of government. (Whatever that means with a Marxist at the helm.) How can you call it a “bubble” when the value is virtually fixed and the return on investment is going down?


28 posted on 12/13/2008 5:28:55 AM PST by Liberty Ship ("Lord, make me fast and accurate.")
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To: Recovering Ex-hippie
My Bond fund lost as much as my equities fund. Can you explain that one?

one word. Management.

Seriously, though, alot of it depends on what kind of bonds you have in the portfolio. Some of the lower graded bonds have done horribly, as the public perception of them being able to pay dividends and principle is that some of them may not be able to pay at all. Would you buy GM bonds right now?

US Treasuries are what we are talking about. Perceived safety.

29 posted on 12/13/2008 5:31:51 AM PST by slnk_rules (http://mises.org)
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To: Liberty Ship
I’m confused. Is this really a “bubble?”

Sure. Anytime you have to pay lots more for the value of an item in order to get it becasuse of a strong inflow of money, it is a bubble. You are just (understandably) confused about valuation of the bonds because they don't "pay" any more than they did before. Just think of the interest rate as an inverse of the sale price (it really is). then you see the valuation bubble. Hope that helps.

30 posted on 12/13/2008 5:39:00 AM PST by slnk_rules (http://mises.org)
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To: Liberty Ship

Peter Schiff comments: http://caps.fool.com/blogs/viewpost.aspx?bpid=119092&t=01000420523245711617


31 posted on 12/13/2008 5:41:35 AM PST by ovrtaxt (It is better for civilization to be going down the drain than to be coming up it. ~Henry Allen)
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To: TigerLikesRooster

You’d be way dam better off investing in Spaghettios!!


32 posted on 12/13/2008 5:45:00 AM PST by djf (...heard about a couple livin in the USA, he said they traded in their baby for a Chevrolet...)
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To: slnk_rules

Ok, thanks. And the way this “bubble” bursts is in a reduction in the value of the dollars invested — inflation.

I get it!


33 posted on 12/13/2008 5:55:34 AM PST by Liberty Ship ("Lord, make me fast and accurate.")
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To: ovrtaxt; JasonC

Jasonc, if you’ve got a minute, can I get your opinion on this Peter Schiff article?


34 posted on 12/13/2008 6:09:03 AM PST by andyandval
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To: ovrtaxt

BFL.


35 posted on 12/13/2008 7:04:41 AM PST by blam
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To: slnk_rules

After years —last 8 years—of investing according to all the “brilliant” strategies, diversify, bond allocation etc. I feel taken by these experts!!

I will have to now even more aggresively manage my own portfolio..that is really look at the funds I am investing in. My puny 1 yr old 401k did fantastic..cause I didn’t have time to ‘invest” it in stocks yet. ha. \

I will take my holidays time to learn more. Also I will be hanging up my laundry to dry instead of running through the dryer and eating more homemdae soup. ha. Yet, my dog Lola refuses to go down to generic doggie biscuits!! but then, she is head of the household so no argument there.


36 posted on 12/13/2008 7:28:06 AM PST by Recovering Ex-hippie (Obozo.....friend of dictators and wannabee revoluuuushionaries !)
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To: bruinbirdman

The limit on FDIC-insured CDs is now $250,000, not $100,000.
You lose a little in liquidity, when compared to Treasuries, but not much.


37 posted on 12/13/2008 10:43:52 AM PST by olrtex (()
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To: Recovering Ex-hippie

vbmfx


38 posted on 12/13/2008 2:54:33 PM PST by eyedigress (All I want for Christmas is a nice blue barrel rifle.)
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To: Recovering Ex-hippie
"My Bond fund lost as much as my equities fund. Can you explain that one?"

Bonds not bond funds. Equities, not equity funds.

yitbos

39 posted on 12/13/2008 3:02:02 PM PST by bruinbirdman ("Those who control language control minds.")
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To: bruinbirdman

my investments were in bond funds....and also stock (equity) funds.

It was a realtively short term bond fund which should have been more conservative than my value stock fund. so I was going with what the “experts” said, have a portion in bond funds to offset the stock funds if the market gets hit.


40 posted on 12/13/2008 3:38:20 PM PST by Recovering Ex-hippie (Obozo.....friend of dictators and wannabee revoluuuushionaries !)
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