gas will drop down to $30 a barrel, yes. But teh economy will pick up by Q3 2009 and the oil suppliers are cutting down production NOW. when the reversal comes, the cost per barrel WILL yo-yo up and down from $40 to $140 (when the highs and lows come, I don’t know, but they will come) — why? because the price had risen too fast and has fallen too fast. Break-even for most oil cos is $30 to $40 in current $$s, so I’d guess that in the long term it will stabilise to $70. So, it’s best for the US to reduce it’s dependence on oil and cut off it’s dependence on Middle-EAstern oil NOW.
I can live just fine on $70 a barrel.