Posted on 11/15/2008 2:50:46 PM PST by canuck_conservative
Karl Rove offered comforting words to grieving Republicans in an article published Thursday: “History will favor Republicans in 2010. Since World War II, the out-party has gained an average of 23 seats in the U.S. House and two in the U.S. Senate in a new president’s first mid-term election. Other than FDR and George W. Bush, no president has gained seats in his first mid-term election in both chambers.”
Conservatives can only hope so. Early indications, however, point ominously the other way. Like the economy, the Republican party will most likely get sicker before it gets better. There are at least four reasons to think Karl Rove over-optimistic:
1) The political cycle may favor Republicans, but the business cycle now favors the Democrats. The U.S. economy has visibly slumped into recession on George W. Bush’s watch. If the economy recovers by 2010, the Democrats are well placed to claim credit. If problems linger, however, they are almost as well placed to escape blame. The Wall Street Journal may describe Wall Street’s weakness as “the Barack market.” Eventually, that description will gain force. For many months to come, however, Obama can safely argue, as Ronald Reagan argued 12 months into his first term, that the economy’s troubles were inherited from an unpopular predecessor.
2) True, Ronald Reagan’s party lost votes in its first mid-year election, 1982. But Reagan’s stringent anti-inflation program imposed short-term pain for long-term gain. In Obama’s program, by contrast, the pain is all long-term. In the short term, he offers a big increase in government spending, cash rebates, and wider health coverage. That’s short-term gain for long-term pain. It seems unlikely that very much of that long-term pain will have arrived by 2010.
3) The U.S. electoral map offers more opportunities
(Excerpt) Read more at network.nationalpost.com ...
Back-to-basics time, folks.
The GOP won’t just get sicker; the GOP may very well die...from an acute RINOvirus infection.
Frum lacks shame. The GOP is partly in this mess because it followed advice from people like him.
HA....”RINOVirus”.....THAT’s IT!!!!
It is the David Frum style GOP politicians that put the GOP in this deep hole. Listening to his advice is the last thing the GOP needs.
He and the other Neo Cons are trying to pull the Party even further left...
In the vernacular, “he (Frum) don’t know nuttin’”.
Whatever credibility Frum had left when he attacked McCain/Palin 10 days out.
Not credibility there!
Frum needs to pick a fight with the Mitt-bots of Pawlenty-peons.
That is always the way with necons like Frum. When they sucked away the life from one host, they seek another one.
I think David Frum will become Biden’s speech writer ;-))
we need a dose of Paleo-conservatism.
BO’s coat tails won’t be there in 2010. The analysis seems to center on the 9 % differential of ‘04 in the 18-29 age group vs. the 34 % differential in ‘08, that the Dems margins of victory was built on that (Plus blacks!) I’m skeptical a lot of those voters will return to the polls in ‘10. Besides, who would pretend to know what will happen 6 weeks before the election in ‘10? Therefore, Rove seems more likely to have it right from the distance we’re looking at.
Hey Frum, you think the GOP is sick? Go ask Senator Boxer about her close aid and advisor that was arrested for child porn last Friday. How about a thougthful think piece on that one David?
Frum is assuming a relatively quick economic recovery. If the 1974 and 1982 recessions are any guide, the economy could well be in recession into the second quarter of 2010.
By then the Obama/Democrat economic record will likely consist of:
-10% unemployment
-middle class tax cut promise broken
-higher income taxes than were promised during the campaign
-GM ford and chrysler bankruptcies (after 2 failed bailouts)
Obama will be like Clinton, once his tax increase is passed, it will be his economy.
I tend to agree that we should no longer count Frum as an ally.
I honestly think Republicans are infected with an illness carefully cultivated in them by Democrats and various institutional elite during the 1970s.
As of Watergate, Republicans became the party of apology. What Republicans can and should always offer to the American public and will be readily is received is. . . . an apology.
We are sorry about the economy. We are sorry about the ethical lapses. We are sorry about our pro-life party. We are sorry about our VP candidates. We are sorry about the hate. We are sorry about our harshness. We are sorry about talk radio. We are sorry about being sorry. We are sorry about the war. We are sorry about our existence.
And yet on each one of these issues it is fascinating as to how being a Democrat simply is a matter of never having to say you are sorry.
Whether you are a former leader of the klan, a sexual assault and raping President, a cold cash bribed congressional member, a lying civic abusing Eliot spitzer, a driving off the bridge drowning woman member of Congress . . . and the list could go forever. You do not have to say you are sorry. Being a democrat is never having to say you are sorry.
Our entertainment industry manufactures a sense of shame directed at Republicans. Strong women like Palin and Coulter are demonized because they intrinsically threaten this basic political dynamic. Like tough love moms, they call the fools on the carpet for their reckless conduct. But our political arena is anarchy.
Frum is part of the apology Republicans. He wants to say how sorry he is about all of this Bush stuff. He is so sorry— so very very sorry.
And indeed he is.
Bush is a disaster
Mr. Frum - the Democrats are running our country right now. Let’s just see what gets worse before it gets better - okay?
Exactly, and they not only “must” be the Wizards of Smart, they also are the first in our so called “Opinion Leadership” to jettison ANYTHING that bolsters Conservatism.
This impulse is odd, they must be double minded..
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