Posted on 11/14/2008 12:05:38 PM PST by Dubya-M-DeesWent2SyriaStupid!
Hello, everyone! The talk you are about to hear is the result of a lengthy process on my part. My specialty is in thinking about and, unfortunately, predicting collapse. My method is based on comparison: I watched the Soviet Union collapse, and, since I am also familiar with the details of the situation in the United States, I can make comparisons between these two failed superpowers.
I was born and grew up in Russia, and I traveled back to Russia repeatedly between the late 80s and mid-90s. This allowed me to gain a solid understanding of the dynamics of the collapse process as it unfolded there. By the mid-90s it was quite clear to me that the US was headed in the same general direction. But I couldn't yet tell how long the process would take, so I sat back and watched.
I am an engineer, and so I naturally tended to look for physical explanations for this process, as opposed to economic, political, or cultural ones. It turns out that one could come up with a very good explanation for the Soviet collapse by following energy flows.
What happened in the late 80s is that Russian oil production hit an all-time peak. This coincided with new oil provinces coming on stream in the West - the North Sea in the UK and Norway, and Prudhoe Bay in Alaska - and this suddenly made oil very cheap on the world markets. Soviet revenues plummeted, but their appetite for imported goods remained unchanged, and so they sank deeper and deeper into debt. What doomed them in the end was not even so much the level of debt, but their inability to take on further debt even faster. Once international lenders balked at making further loans, it was game over.
What is happening to the United States now is broadly similar, with certain polarities reversed. The US is an oil importer, burning up 25% of the world's production, and importing over two-thirds of that. Back in mid-90s, when I first started trying to guess the timing of the US collapse, the arrival of the global peak in oil production was scheduled for around the turn of the century.
SNIP...ARTICLE IS VERY LONG
Financial collapse seems to be particularly painful if you happen to have a lot of money. On the other hand, I run across people all the time, who feel that "Nothing's happened yet." These are mostly younger, relatively successful people, who have little or no savings, and still have good paying jobs, or unemployment insurance that hasn't run out yet. Their daily lives aren't much affected by the turmoil on the financial markets, and they don't believe that anything different is happening beyond the usual economic ups and downs.
Commercial collapse is much more obvious, and observing it doesn't entail opening envelopes and examining columns of figures. It is painful to most people, and life-threatening to some. When store shelves are stripped bare of necessities and remain that way for weeks at a time, panic sets in. In most places, this requires some sort of emergency response, to make sure that people are not deprived of food, shelter, medicine, and that some measure of security and public order is maintained. People who know what's coming can prepare to sit out the worst of it.
Political collapse is more painful yet, because it is directly life-threatening to many people. The breakdown of public order would be particularly dangerous in the US, because of the large number of social problems that have been swept under the carpet over the years. Americans, more than most other people, need to be defended from each other at all times. I think that I would prefer martial law over complete and utter mayhem and lawlessness, though I admit that both are very poor choices.
Social and cultural collapse seem to have already occurred in many parts of the country to a large extent. What social activity remains seems to be anchored to transitory activities like work, shopping, and sports. Religion is perhaps the largest exception, and many communities are organized around churches. But in places where society and culture remain intact, I believe that social and cultural collapse is avoidable, and that this is where we must really dig in our heels.
Also, I think it is very important that we learn to see our surroundings for what they have become. In many places, it feels as if there just isn't that much left that's worth trying to save. If all the culture we see is commercial culture, and all the society we see is consumer society, then the best we can do is walk away from it, and look for other people who are ready to do the same.
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Done. Under inflation, I win.
Under deflation, I go broke.
Total BS on many levels....
The little russian doesn’t understand americans very well.....
Remember the solidarity after 9/11?
Unlike other nations, we still pull together regardless of our differences.....
Look at the transition to Obama.....very peaceful...yeah we’re complaining on our side but no-one is rioting in the streets......
We had financial colapse in 1929....the country survived....
Back then, I remember when FDR got on the television and addressed the nation.....wait a tick...that’s a Plug’s line....
Perhaps anarchy is leavening to the proces...
As do I - and I think that the cultural collapse lead to the others. Of course, this thing is VERY complex. Why the cultural collapse? Was it a lack of religion? People too busy working to give their kids a moral education? The lack of grandparents living with the kids & g'kids, resulting in a loss of historical and moral memory? Many, many causes are involved. Someday, someone will do a 30-part miniseries on it.
In the meantime, the conclusion that our fiat currency will become worthless is probably not wrong (i.e. it is correct). Buying the physical commodities that one needs to live (extra food of the non-perishable or long-lived type, key spare parts, etc.) or to preserve value (precious metals, tools, appliances, etc.) will be the smart thing to do.
“Luckily, we are an armed citizenry in Texas. However, that has its limits. Any thoughts?”
BLOAT. :>)
self ping
With the G20 hullabaloo this weekend and talk of an alternate currency or devaluation of the USD.. how would that probably be performed..??
turn in your Dollars for new Glottany??
or if the USD is devalued by 50% ,then the price of everything doubles ??
this is some scary s**t
I’d say it was the prosperity of the nation that caused us to turn from God.
God’s ways, His laws, if followed, lead to good, prosperous lives. They just MAKE SENSE.
Our culture got too prosperous, and decided we didn’t need those laws. Consequences started to occur, naturally, and people called on institutions of man to alleviate those consequences.
This spiralled/accelerated the cultural and societal collapse and eventually led to the economic collapse.
>extra sugar in the coffee please
Probably better to start weaning yourself off of it before the rationing begins.
Seriously, I’m thinking it probably wouldn’t hurt to stock up on some non-perishables now, just in case. If we don’t need them, great. But if something DOES happen, we won’t regret not taking such a simple step when we could.
I agree about the post-9/11 spirit of community, but I do worry about potentially dangerous/hungry/frightened people leaving the cities and raiding the suburbs for food and supplies. We don’t have a gun - yet.
marking my spot
My thoughts exactly.
bump
Reduce your thyroid size to hybernate. Fatten up and hydrate.
Communism thrives on fear of the unknown, the masses becoming destitute and without resources for a basic way of life always look to government for salvation. They become slaves to it in order to live.
If the ‘president’ of the our country is a Marxist/Communist it will not be in his nature for the masses to regain their independence but that they become more subservient to his will.
good thinking mom.
This weekend, costco for cans non-perishable.
and walmart for other stuff.
For Christmas I’ve asked santa to avoid vanity buying. Instead, fishing gear for future supper gathering.
After-Christmas sales will include sturdy boots, jeans, socks, undies etc and odd toiletry stuff.
Lord willing and the democrats don’t loot, the pantry will be quietly be building supply.
A few friends and I have been talking through this and we have squirrel and ant mentality going.
If all holds up well, no problem, we’ll help stock the homeless pantry when it all blows over and we’ll look back and laugh at our paranoia.
...like we did after y2k *blush*
Hope for the best, prepare for the wurst.
...or something like that
The country just voted for martial law. Bambi’s Brown Shirts will help keep “order.”
Americans have a long and honored tradition of ripping off foreigners who hope to make a fast buck here.
One of note was when wealthy Scots decided to invest in Texas cattle being driven to Kansas City. They even sent accountants to ride with the cowboys and follow their investment.
While a huge heard of cattle would leave Texas, by the time the cowboys rode into Kansas City, not a cow could be seen, the perplexed accountants returning home empty handed.
It was gone after March 19, 2003.
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