true, although the country today is not the same country it was back in 1980 when Reagan won. Demographically especially.
In 1980 the ration of the white vote to the black vote was 88/10 +78 white. This year it was 74/13+ 61 white. A -17 swing. Considering blacks always vote 90%+ for the dems and the GOP always counts on the white vote to win, that’s not trending in a good direction. The white vote shrinking from 88% in 1980 to 74% this year and likely lower than that in 2016 and beyond means it will be tougher and tougher to win. If the white/black ratio was the same this year as it was when Reagan ran, McCain would won with just a tad less than the 51% Reagan did. When you add in the hispanic vote, it’s even worse. In 80 it was 88 white/12 black and hispanic for a +76. This year it was 74/21 for a +53. Again, a bad trend.
Also, the moment cuited Reagan. He was the change in 1980. The conservative alternative to Carter’s failed and discredited liberalism It was easy for him to win. He wasn’t trying to replace a discredited and unpopular conservative President. McCain was. Now, Obama is the change and Bush is Carter.
If Obama and the dems screw up, like with Carter, the GOP will be fine in 2012. If they don’t and the economy comes back as it likely will given business cycles and the fact that recessions don’t last for four years, things will be tougher and 2016 will be the next best chance.
“Considering blacks always vote 90%+ for the dems and the GOP always counts on the white vote to win, that’s not trending in a good direction”
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Blacks have always voted Dims in all recent elections, and we have still won most of the presidential elections over the past 30 years.
Plus Asians vote overwhelmingly for Republicans, and the Asian population is growing faster than the black population.
Black population growth has slowed down quite a bit recently thanks to the liberals embrace of abortion. Latino population keeps growing yes, but even then, the recent crackdown on illegal’s has led to an increase of those returning to Mexico by themselves.
And legal Latino’s tend to vote different from the millions of illegal Latino’s who continue to fraudulently vote in this country.
We will gain seats in congress in 2010.
You can take that to the bank.