“Considering blacks always vote 90%+ for the dems and the GOP always counts on the white vote to win, that’s not trending in a good direction”
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Blacks have always voted Dims in all recent elections, and we have still won most of the presidential elections over the past 30 years.
Plus Asians vote overwhelmingly for Republicans, and the Asian population is growing faster than the black population.
Black population growth has slowed down quite a bit recently thanks to the liberals embrace of abortion. Latino population keeps growing yes, but even then, the recent crackdown on illegal’s has led to an increase of those returning to Mexico by themselves.
And legal Latino’s tend to vote different from the millions of illegal Latino’s who continue to fraudulently vote in this country.
We will gain seats in congress in 2010.
You can take that to the bank.
30 years? We won in 80, 84, 88, 00, and 04. They won in 92, 96 and 08. 5 of 8, but only 2 of the last 5.
We won the popular vote 4 of 5 from 72-88, and we’ve now lost it 4 of 5 from 92-08.
The white vote has shrank from 81% in 00 to 77% in 04 to 74% in 08. In 12 it’ll probably be 72% or less.
Yes Black growth has slowed, but thanks to Obama, their turnout surged. The same #s will come out in 12. Blacks jumped from 11% in 04 to 13% in 08, possibly even higher in 12. The dems went from 88-11 in 04 to 95-4 in 08. Might not seem like a lot but it’s net shift of 3.4 pts or so(out of the total 9 pt shift or so that took place) to the dems from 04. When you consider Bush only beat Kerry by 2.5 pts or so and got 50.8%, that’s a big deal. The shift in the black vote alone was enough to bring the dems even.
I haven’t even mentioned the shift in the hispanic vote from 59-40 Kerry to 68-31 Obama. Hispanic turnout jumped from 8% to 9% and the dems went from a +19 to a +36, a net shift of another 1.4 pts or so in the popular vote. A lot of that is younger hispanics and no doubt a backlash against immigration that isn’t likely to change, especially if Obama passes amnesty of some sort which he likely will. Al those new illegals are gold for the dems.
So the shift in Blacks and Hispanics alone was around a net +5pts, enough to give Obama a 51-49 win even if the white vote stayed exactly the same or even slightly increased for the GOP, which in this economy and Bush’s huge unpopularity it had no chance of doing.
Asians go overwhelmingly GOP? Since When? Gore won them 55-41, Kerry won them 54-40 and Obama won them 66-31. A shift from +14 to +35, more than doubling the margin. A net shift of another .4 pts to the dems in the pop vote. 3 straight wins of +14 or more looks like Asians are pretty solidly dem to me. Dole did beat Clinton 48-44 and Bush beat him 55-31, but 92 and 96 are a long time ago now. The asian vote is solidly dem.
Add in the other minorites(Arabs, Indians(both native and the subcontinent variety), Africans and soley from increases in the turnout and margins among blacks, hispanics, asians and other minorities Obama had a net shift of 5.5 pts from 2004 to 51.5% to start with even if the white vote stays the same as in 2004.
The white shifted slightly dem to +12 from +17, but the +12 is the same margin it was for Bush in 2000. Overall a net shift of 3.5 pts or so in the pop vote. Again given Bush’s approval, the Iraq War, hte anti incumbent/GOP mood since 2006 and the economy(among other things) it’s no surprise there was a slight drop in the white vote.
But 60% of the shift to Obama was because of minorities(90% of which was blacks and hispanics). That’s a big deal.
It’s the shift in minorities that is deadly going forward. Look at the SW where the hispanic vote killed us in NV and NM. Look at FL where the hispanic vote went from 56-44 Bush to 57-42 Obama, a +27 swing to the dems. Immigration backlash and an apparent increase in Puerto Ricans in FL relative to Cubans were two big reasons for that. Younger hispanics also went heavily dem andthey’re only growing. Even young Cubans don’t care about Castro anymore so the GOP/anti-communist thing has less of a pull than it used to. Ironically, Clinton’s Elian fiasco cost Gore FL and the WH(cubans went from 65% GOP in 96 to 80% GOP in 00, the difference in a 537 vote race) and now the immigration thing hurt us with hispanics in key states and nationwide.
It’s only going to grow in those states.
It’s a major issue going forward.