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Obama win ? Not the tsunami some had expected.
The Volokh Conspiracy ^ | NOVEMBER 5, 2008 | The Volokh Conspiracy

Posted on 11/05/2008 1:35:36 PM PST by RobinMasters

Democrats have fifty-six seats, Republicans forty. With all or almost all (99% in Alaska) the votes counted, if current totals hold after recounts and whatnot, the Republicans get three more (Georgia, Minnesota, and believe it or not, Ted Stevens's seat in Alaska). Oregon only has about 3/4 reporting, with the Republican ahead slightly, and Portland results in.

More generally, the picture is of a solid Democratic win, but not the tsunami some had expected. Obama won the popular vote by a solid, but not crushing, margin of slightly less than six percent (52.4-46.5). Bill Clinton beat Bob Dole by a significantly greater margin and even greater relative percentage (49.25-40.71), and George Bush by a slightly lower margin, but higher relative percentage (43.01-37.45). Bush, meanwhile, beat Dukakis by a larger margin, 53.4 to 45.6. The Democrats picked up about twenty House seats, on the low end of the expected range. And, as noted above, they seem likely to pick up five or six Senate seats,which would make the Senate races either 18-16 in favor of the Democrats, or tied at 17-17, again on the low end of the expected range.

UPDATE: BTW, of course I'm aware that presidential elections are decided by the Electoral College, not the popular vote. But comparing electoral college results gives the same picture, and I think looking at the popular vote gives one a better idea of how much national sentiment has shifted to the Democrats.


TOPICS: News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: bho2008

1 posted on 11/05/2008 1:35:37 PM PST by RobinMasters
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To: RobinMasters

Given the current split (a clear Dem majority, but well-short of fillibuster-proof) I figure that they’ll kick Joe Lieberman out of the caucus. Joe will probably put an “R” behind his name.


2 posted on 11/05/2008 1:38:19 PM PST by Tallguy ("The sh- t's chess, it ain't checkers!" -- Alonzo (Denzel Washington) in "Training Day")
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To: RobinMasters

OK with the percentages but wasn’t the difference just like 6 million votes - 63 million for the messiah and 57 for McCain?


3 posted on 11/05/2008 1:39:11 PM PST by SkyDancer ("I Believe In The Law Until It Interferes With Justice")
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To: steve-b

FYI (not a landslide...aka tsunami) ;)

“More generally, the picture is of a solid Democratic win, but not the tsunami some had expected. Obama won the popular vote by a solid, but not crushing, margin of slightly less than six percent (52.4-46.5). Bill Clinton beat Bob Dole by a significantly greater margin and even greater relative percentage (49.25-40.71), and George Bush by a slightly lower margin, but higher relative percentage (43.01-37.45). Bush, meanwhile, beat Dukakis by a larger margin, 53.4 to 45.6. The Democrats picked up about twenty House seats, on the low end of the expected range. And, as noted above, they seem likely to pick up five or six Senate seats,which would make the Senate races either 18-16 in favor of the Democrats, or tied at 17-17, again on the low end of the expected range.”


4 posted on 11/05/2008 1:40:11 PM PST by CaribouCrossing
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To: RobinMasters

I dunno. 349 electoral votes looks a lot like a landslide to me, but I may be misguided.


5 posted on 11/05/2008 1:41:42 PM PST by Cyber Liberty (Pretending the Admin Moderator doesn't exist will result in suspension.)
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To: RobinMasters

65 million Americans said “no-keep the change” to Hussein.....


6 posted on 11/05/2008 1:42:50 PM PST by AngelesCrestHighway
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To: SkyDancer

“OK with the percentages but wasn’t the difference just like 6 million votes - 63 million for the messiah and 57 for McCain?”

I think it was 62 million to 55 million for McCain.

A bad night, but it could have been MUCH worse.


7 posted on 11/05/2008 1:44:27 PM PST by nyc1
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To: Tallguy
Joe will probably put an “R” behind his name.

What's in it for him if he does? I think he'll just drop the "Independent Democrat" crap and just call himself an independent.

8 posted on 11/05/2008 1:45:59 PM PST by Non-Sequitur
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To: Cyber Liberty
349 electoral votes looks a lot like a landslide to me, but I may be misguided.

An electoral landslide does not imply a Senate or House landslide, while a popular vote landslide would infer as much.....Capiche?

9 posted on 11/05/2008 1:49:16 PM PST by Nonstatist
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To: Non-Sequitur
What's in it for him if he does?

Well, nothing. Except the Dems were threatening to strip Joe of his committee assignments before the election. If they move on him he has nothing to lose.

10 posted on 11/05/2008 1:55:12 PM PST by Tallguy ("The sh- t's chess, it ain't checkers!" -- Alonzo (Denzel Washington) in "Training Day")
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To: Nonstatist

Sure. It’s a sad day we look, with hopeful eyes, that 700 or so votes keeps Al Franken (aka The Clown) out of the Senate.


11 posted on 11/05/2008 2:02:16 PM PST by Cyber Liberty (Pretending the Admin Moderator doesn't exist will result in suspension.)
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To: RobinMasters

OBAMA: 63,042,806...
MCCAIN: 55,821,650...

DOW -486
NASDAQ -98
S&P - 53

Get the drift?


12 posted on 11/05/2008 2:04:47 PM PST by steelydan (...he has certainly established the ground work to keep OÂ’BamaÂ’s tax bill from passing.)
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To: RobinMasters
OK. Not a tsunami. Just an old-fashioned arse-whipping.

Rationalizers annoy me.

13 posted on 11/05/2008 2:16:49 PM PST by bailmeout ("During times of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act" - G Orwell)
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To: Tallguy

Joe should record the conversation and play it back on Fox News after its over.


14 posted on 11/05/2008 2:24:39 PM PST by o2bfree
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To: nyc1
It's a lot closer than a landslide which is good. It now gives Conservatives breathing room from Bush ... McCain to me was very weak ... Sarah was good but not enough; I think the Rep's kept her in check ... couldn't be who she was ... now we can really see how the Dem's will destroy our country and that afterwards we'll be stronger ... it'll be generations before any Dem would dare to announce ... Lib's too!!!
15 posted on 11/05/2008 2:47:18 PM PST by SkyDancer ("I Believe In The Law Until It Interferes With Justice")
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Comment #16 Removed by Moderator

To: RobinMasters
It's a 7.0 Earthquake ! Without the Tsunami !

Just Wait A Few More Days . . .

Reverberations take time. 'Nuff said by me here on FR.

17 posted on 11/05/2008 2:51:09 PM PST by ex-Texan (Ecclesiastes 5:10 - 20)
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To: Tallguy

The senate counte is wrong. If the Cloman amd Stevens victory’s hold up it will 44 (R) 54(D) and 2 (I) and I suspect Lieberman will soon be caucusing with the R’s once Harry Reid exiles him on Thursday.


18 posted on 11/05/2008 2:51:52 PM PST by AmericanSphinx71 (Pray for America)
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To: Tallguy
Well, nothing. Except the Dems were threatening to strip Joe of his committee assignments before the election. If they move on him he has nothing to lose.

He's not going to get a committee leadership from the Republicans. So Joe will probably be the new maverick and stay an independent.

19 posted on 11/05/2008 5:10:49 PM PST by Non-Sequitur
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To: steelydan

OBAMA: 63,042,806...
MCCAIN: 55,821,650...

Day after

DOW -486
NASDAQ -98
S&P - 53

Get the drift?

Day after Day after

DOW -259.41 -2.84% and dropping

NASDAQ -44.12 -2.62% and dropping

S&P 500 -28.80 -3.02% and dropping

Are you still not getting the Drift? Here’s a hint. This will impact very little those who are going to receive the welfare checks. As far as IRAs and 401Ks, you can kiss them goodbye for a long time. I’m holding out, but it won’t be pretty.


20 posted on 11/06/2008 8:33:02 AM PST by steelydan (...he has certainly established the ground work to keep OÂ’BamaÂ’s tax bill from passing.)
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