Posted on 11/04/2008 1:19:55 PM PST by greyfoxx39
In presidential elections, not all counties are created equal.
Generally, the counties that matter most are located in closely contested states, where they play a key role in determining the winner. Thus the most populous county in the U.S. — Los Angeles County, located in safely Democratic California — isn’t nearly as important in determining this election as the 95th largest county — Albuquerque’s Bernalillo County, the gateway to winning the swing state of New Mexico.
(Excerpt) Read more at dyn.politico.com ...
Ping
I’m surprised to see any mention of Nebraska.
I would say watch Aroostook and Penobscot counties in Maine for a possible 1 EV pick-up for McCain.
I haven't heard about Butler Co., OH, but we checked on Darke County, which went for Bush 2:1 and it's off the charts. They are saying possibly 80% turnout! In Montgomery County, which Kerry won by 2, McCain is doing very well and should win it.
I’m hearing big, big turnout in the Red ME counties too.
My county, Greene of Missouri, is listed #6. As I’ve said many times in the past few weeks, our county, along with Jasper, Christian and Newton in SW Missouri, is key to the election to offset KC and St. Louis.
McCain needs 60% plus. Voter turnout is heavy here...could be a good sign.
I hardly agree with anything POLITICO says. So, it’s down to counties now? What’s next,,,neighborhoods?
http://results.enr.clarityelections.com/CO/Jefferson/7250/index.html
There has been a huge amount of migration during the sub-prime mortgage spree.
Last year’s bellwethers are not this year’s.
I’d be very cautious with bellwether areas this year.
The ones mentioned in the article have probably all seen an influx from the city and efflux to rural areas- making them more Dem. How convenient...
ping
Westmoreland County, PA is my county...and it is not 'trending Republican' it is solid 'R.' People (like PaDad and I) who moved here (WC) left Allegheny County (Pittsburgh) for lower taxes...yes...LOWER TAXES. There are three 0bama signs in my housing plan (of 260 plus homes). There are about 150 plus McCain signs (in combo w/local Rs). At 3:30 (I waited til my 11 got off the bus...he wanted to watch me vote) I had to wait in line. Westmoreland County PA is solid McCain.
And Lancaster...does anyone think the Amish won't go conservative!!!
Well, we don’t have to worry too much about it here, 150 miles south-south-east of Bernallilo County, but for sur,e Bernallilo and most of the NM counties parallel to and north of it are places to watch closely.
But since there are no Black Panthers around here, the 0bama campaign had to resort to something even more intimidating: When I went in to vote, the doors to OUR polling place were being ‘blocked’ by two rather chubby, pale faced teenage girls with Obama shirts and hats, armed with clipboards ;-)
Just for grins, I was going to take a photo of them on my way out, but they were gone when I finished voting.
I asked at the polls (2:00PM) if turnout was good, and they said that it was…But I seemed to be the only actual voter in the place (Lots of poll workers), and there was only one other signature on the sign in page with my range of the alphabet.
Every time previously during our elections, just about all the various local, state and national campaigns have people lining the road down to our polling place, waving signs and cheering, just outside the legal limit, but today, other than the two young 0bama girls who were INSIDE the no-campaigning zone, only one of the guys running for Sheriff was out there. Not quite sure what to make of that.
It is pretty windy, with a hint of possible snow for later tonight, but still, I wonder at the lack of enthusiasm.
Drove through town. The two Democrat HQ places had balloons, streamers and activity. The Republican HQ had several cars in front of it, but looked pretty dead otherwise.
Anyway, that’s the report from ‘Upper South Podunk’, NM.
Thanks for the report, Legend...I think a lot of people voted early.
I'm an expatriate living in Germany now. My Dad is a native New Mexican from around Chama, and I lived in NM for seven years until I joined the Army. I'm still a resident of NM (Albq.)and vote absentee the most time if I'm not there on vacation. I'd like to keep up on current events in order to help me vote.
Thanks,
Gonzo
You have been added, Gonzo..Welcome.
Thanks!
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