Toast - Why Obama Will Lose and the Political Analysts Will Be Destroyed

seanmaelstrom.wordpress.com ^ | Nov 3, 2008 | seanmalstrom

[LibertyUSAmerica]

I’ve checked my email, and I have over a hundred new messages. And I can’t get to anything resorting to ‘Sean Malstrom’ due to real life situations. Luckily I changed my career gears long ago. But my old profession of political analysis is going to be absolutely destroyed. I still think McCain will win the election and do so by a larger margin than Bush did in 2004. When this happens, a hurricane of outrage will be unleashed at the political analysis business, mostly the pollsters. People will demand to know how they could be so off. In other words, the future of the political analysis business will be destroyed as their reputation will become destroyed in the upcoming days.

[reasonisfaith]

You sound very fragile.

[ronnie raygun]

Here is the greatest opportunity to show the sesspool media, the mindless koolaide drinkers, the money men behind this trojan horse Obama, the racists, terrorists, here and abroad, the anti American haters in other countries, the socialists, communists and the entitlement leeches in this country that WE THE PEOPLE will decide who we want as president NOT YOU! It is apparent like in previous elections that the rats cannot win anything without cheating, fraud and manipulation. STAND UP PEOPLE, BE COUNTED, STRENGTH IN #’S, SAVE THIS COUNTRY FROM UTTER DESTRUCTION.

[StatenIsland]

"Fear will trump greed..."

I especially liked this. IMO, it is the main reason for a McCain victory:

Broken Glass Conservatives

One of the reasons why Democrats lost the elections of 2002, 2004, and won in 2006 so handily is the appearance (and disappearance) of the phenomenon I refer to as ‘Broken Glass Conservatives’. Conservatives are generally apathetic and have been lately about their candidates. While Bush was a Republican, he was not a conservative. He was conservative on a few things, the things that mattered most to conservatives (foreign policy, judges, taxes), but Bush has no interest in the conservative movement and doesn’t want to ‘lead’ it unlike Reagan.

So conservative support for Republican candidates have been very soft (as illustrated in 2006). But if a Democrat or the legacy media (who conservatives believe are the same) insult or attack conservatives or what they believe, the result is ‘broken glass conservatives’ meaning the apathetic, soft Republican (or Democrat) conservative suddenly turns enraged and will literally walk over ‘broken glass’, if need be, to vote.

‘Broken glass conservatives’ phenomenons are all easily prevented if someone had some sense. An example of a ‘broken class conservative’ scenario would be Congressman Murtha (twice) declaring western Pennslyvania as ‘racists’. Remember, Murth’s district is mostly Democrat, and they know about Murtha’s shenanigans (the idea of ‘he’s a crook, but he is OUR crook’). But conservative Democrats took the insult personally and, out of the blue, Murtha’s safe seat suddenly becomes competitive .

In 2004, the ‘broken glass conservatives’ were generated by, what conservatives felt, media bias in that veterans who served with Kerry were never had the spotlight shown (which they resorted to their own ads which became the ‘SwiftBoat Ads’) as well as Dan Rather and the forged memos.

In 2008, there are more phenomenons of the ‘Broken Glass Conservatives’ than I have ever seen…

-Conservatives believe the media has been outrageously fawning over Obama and doing everything it can to protect him. This has enraged them even more than in 2004.

-Obama’s comment of people in rural areas were nothing more than ‘bitter clingers’ who cling to guns and religion have caused lingering outrage at him. This comment, alone, is one reason why Pennslyvania turned on him.

-The Bail-Out Bill enraged many and was when conservatives finally abandoned Bush. But Bush is not on the ticket anymore so that doesn’t matter. Rather, the enragement is aimed at Pelosi and Reid, the leaders of the House and Senate.

-Media treatment of Sarah Palin generated many ‘Broken Glass Conservatives’ and even overlapped to the Hillary Clinton supporters.

-Joe the Plumber. At first, Joe the Plumber recieved much amusement and delight of the electorate since it was funny to watch the presidential candidates refer to some citizen and even talk directly to ‘him’ on the camera. After the debate, naturally the press put up photos of the ‘conversation’ between Joe and Obama in amusement as well (amusement in how this citizen somehow ended up as the topic in the third debate). Then, Obama and Biden mocked joe the Plumber and said plumbers could never earn $250,000, and this followed with news came out about Joe’s salary, his marriage, his driver’s license, his taxes, his lack of a plumber’s license, and him ultimately being fired by the plumbing union. This enraged people like I have never seen before. Joe the Plumber became the ‘John Galt’ icon. I heard stories of visible Obama supporters being rattled by this such as SoCal voters peeling off their bumper stickers and uprooting their Obama signs.

-Socialism. People who are over 50, who either fled a socialist country or was in the military to help liberate socialist countries, find the thought of any presidential candidate, even ‘warm’ on the ideas of socialism, to be deemed ‘unelectable’ and are outraged it took to the Joe the Plumber incident to discover what, they believe, Obama’s true motives are.

At one McCain rally, that man who screamed, “I’M ANGRY! I’M REALLY ANGRY!!!” is a microcosm of the ‘Broken Glass Conservatives’. It is the reason why, now, the blood red Utah has people rushing to the early voting polls. In Texas, an army of pick-up trucks have descended upon the polls. Much of the interest in early voting, which is exceeding 2004 levels, is being mistaken as enthused support for Obama. But it is likely that it is ‘Broken Glass Conservatives’ which exist in both Democrat and Republican parties.

This white hot intensity of the ‘Broken Glass Conservatives’ has not, and cannot, be measured with standard measures (how can a poll detect passion? It cannot). It can be detected by the mushrooming ‘McCain-Palin’ signs that have been sprouting out in the oddest places. The ‘Broken Glass Conservatives’ will likely surprise election results with the biggest plum being Pennslyvania turning red.

[D_Hawk]

Great Post, this is the first one that made me have some “real” confidence. I was depressed, now I am excited about the election!

[arichtaxpayer]

A long read, but well worth it. Thanks.

[arichtaxpayer]

My favorite part of the article:

Lying to pollsters is frequent and a necessity in Pennslyvania due to the unions. Many union bosses will call their members, posing as a ‘pollster’, and if the member gives the wrong asnwer, a thug is sent to the house. The Teacher’s Union there has sent strict orders to vote for Obama “or else”.

[Islander7]

Welcome to FRee Republic!

“.....I am a yellow-dog Democrat who has never voted other than a straight Democratic ticket. I will join the 5% or so of AAs who will vote for McCain/Palin. I know other Democrats will do the same; I just don’t know how many...”

I spent three days on the ground in Tallahassee, FL. I met a LOT of democrats who will be crossing over to vote for McCain/Palin. I knocked on over 300 doors and spoke with people who are very concerned with the policies of 0bama.

It was impressive that almost everyone I spoke with was informed. They had researched the issues themselves and made their decision based on knowledge. There is a sizable number of black folks who see through the 0bama spin too.

Turn out is the key! We have to get the voters to the polls!

[snuffy smiff]

But my old profession of political analysis is going to be absolutely destroyed.

Hmmm. He says that like it's a bad thing...

[MattinNJ]

Ping-this article nails it. I still say McCain BIG.

[Flyover027]

Far and away the best single analysis I have read. I am particularly impressed the way he starts off..namely that pollsters err primarily because they approach the ‘science’ from a numbers perspective rather than from the human ‘intensity’ vantage. It’s one of the problems that all social sciences suffer from...an inferiority complex relative to the so-called ‘hard sciences’..so social scientists wrap themselves in mathematical modeling mush (to show in a ‘me-too’ fashion that their science can also have complex graph ridden models just like their big brother scientists in chemistry, etc) while missing the common sense ‘earth of experience’ thinking and analysis so necessary for good science. Just to carry this one step further..and hang with me here folks, I’ll be getting back to the article and its predictions, but let me take this concept of misuse of math in the social sciences (which includes polling) a bit further. It’s as if social scientists notice that the larger the fire, the more fire engines..and so by analogy, they confuse cause and effect and come up with the solution that to reduce the size of future fires, let’s just send less fire engines. They are so caught up in their math models, they lose touch with human experience. Now we all see the humor in suggesting that if we but send less fire engines fires will assuredly be smaller. But when it comes to social ‘issues’ and where dependent and independent variables become less ‘obvious’, by analogy, we have social scientists making assertions that in truth are just as stupid as the fire engine example..it’s just harder for the average reader to detect the absurdity...

And so this article hits directly at the errors of national pollsters...their failure to identify some important ‘intensities’ that are different for this election than any other.. such as the PUMA and Palin effects.

I think the PUMA effect and the Palin effect indeed are going to prove very strong indeed..more than any of the polsters are accounting for.

And his predictions regarding the media calling states like PA for Obama early as part of their advocacy agenda are dead on....

So I’m stocking up on beer and popcorn..and prolly won’t make the office in the AM..gonna be a looong night..but the story will have a happy ending.

[YellowDawg]

To: Cap74
“... we’re similar in this way: We did not leave the Democratic Party, it left us.”

I used to sneer at that famous Reagan quote. Today, I understand.

---

To: Caipirabob
Thanks for the welcome.

---

To: PowerPro
“I think that, not only will there be more Dems voting McCain/Palin than is being reported, there will be more AAs as well.

“I mean, seriously. How arrogant is it to just assume people are all going to vote for someone based on their ethnicity?”

While hopeful, I am not as optimistic as you. All races/cultures have bonds that unite them. While not as essential today, it is ingrained in AA history that support of one another equals survival. I’ve always known that the first perceived viable AA candidate would receive nearly 100% AA support. Even when that viable perception took hold, Obama still used the ‘race card’ against Hilliary to boost AA support.

[Aquinasfan]

Not so with Der Obamessiah - scariest candidate I've seen on this continent EVER.

As I heard Mark Steyn say yesterday, "regardless of the outcome, it's frightening that this election is even close."

[oioiman]

not fishing, the lakes will be frozen at gf cabin in Norbotten (extreme Northern Sweden), but I am going to Malta for the holidays, wooooot! Obama still hasn,t proven hes a natural born citizen, so I am not sure he is sworn in, at least till he anties up the documents.

[mykdsmom]

Thanks for posting this, it makes a lot of sense.

My favorite sentence was: When this happens, a hurricane of outrage will be unleashed at the political analysis business, mostly the pollsters. This will just be the icing on the cake of a McCain win.

[MeekOneGOP]

The ONLY Poll that matters is the one that happens today!!

Get out there and show these lyin' &%$#@&%^ how wrong they are !!!

- - - - - -

Don't Listen to the Media and Polls! Get Out There and VOTE! Turnout is KEY !!!!

It Ain't Over Till It's Over

My take is that the MSM / Lamestream Media is out to suppress the GOP vote.

They are WAAAAAAYYYY overpolling Democraps in their polls, IGNORING factual stories negative for Obama and doing EVERYTHING they can to SMEAR McCain and especially PALIN with their lies.

I think this will blow up in their faces. When GOP voters see the tainted polls slanted to favor Socialist Obama, the GOP fence-sitters will crawl across broken glass to KEEP the Socialist Obama outta the White House !!!

Here in Texas, the first day of Early Voting set ALL TIME records for turnout. ALMOST DOUBLE the old record (up almost 80%) !!!!

[MeekOneGOP]

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/2111076/posts?page=278#278

[wardaddy]

pissy attitude

and you're a regular bucket of honey I take it?

[wardaddy]

You sound very fragile.

yep, that's me.

a regular swooning Suzy I am...

[wardaddy]

that’s a decent point Xzins but rathergate was not about conjecture

all these theories on the polls and demographics that defy past patterns are pretty wishful

the only hope I see is high turnout for our side

i have noticed around here that polls are lies when they don’t go our way yet the same poster will cite a positive poll like Magna Carta

and anyone like me who is skeptical is a heretic

[Terry Mross]

Why are they so far off? Because the “reporters” are “reporting” what they “hope” will happen.