Posted on 11/03/2008 7:46:40 PM PST by savvyguy
British Journalist, Simon Jenkins, Sunday Times, wrote today, "Obama Stock Is Overpriced; Sell, Sell"
I will share several reasons/factors why McCain will likely win. I first wrote about 2 months ago ,”10 reasons why I believe McCain will win .” Then I lost faith, but regained it recently.
Dick Morris wrote that if Obama wasn’t getting 50% in the final polls, it could spell trouble, because the undecided will break heavily for McCain. Old rule in politics that an incumbent candidate is always in danger when he dips under 50 percent, even if he is leading his opponent in the polls. They could break at rates as high as 4 to 1.
Every single state has more than 3% undecided, up to 9%. If Obama hasn’t convinced those voters by now, most will go with McCain. The Mason-Dixon in Virginia showed that 11% of whites are undecided , above average in last days.
My prediction is 281 electoral votes for McCain, 257 for Obama. Obama will lead in popular votes by around 2%. Forward this to or people, to encourage them to vote.
Even AP Warns that he Could Win Electoral College. In 2000, Gore narrowly won the popular vote by 537,179 votes. But Bush won 271 to 266.
My reasons I see hope:
1. Those stubborn conservatives who vowed they will NEVER vote for Mccain are coming home. First Dr. Dobson and Mike Savage, there will be more last minute.
2. There’s real fear out there for a Socialist State! People buying guns. Gun owners will lopsidedly vote McCain-Palin!
3. Christian block of voters has come home to McCain. Obama’s mission there has failed miserably! I was worried. The Catholic vote is strong this year & will tilt Ohio & battleground States.
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5. Because of persistent rumor online, significant % of American who will not vote for a suspected Muslim. Continue here:
6. PUMAS & Hillary supporters- little sampled by polls. I think at least 15% will break for McCain, probably higher! They are still mad & many women kinda like Palin as VP
7. McCain has raised some $5 or more millions for TV ADs last week or so, huge boost! Running Rev. Wright's ad by a black GOP group, very effective in swing States. Will raise more doubts! Obama’s recent funds have dried up.
8. McCain & Palin message have been more passionate, confident! They are pounding daily.
9. War issue no longer that big issue these days. seldom hear casualties.
10. Stock market has stabilized
11. Joe the plummer factor, a God sent! Many small biz and blue collars are turned off by Obama’s remarks & treatment of him
12. Coal bankruptcy remarks discovered, another God send, will have a definite effect, in a tight race, could tilt it.
13. Palin factor- I think high % women at the end would love see a woman to become VP!
Many who desire change see it in her! Without Palin, McCain does not have a prayer.
As someonme else on FR pointed out , iIf the popular vote lead by Obama is less than 4%, Obama will likely lose the Electoral.
The recent restaurant’s poll (shows McCain ahead) & AOL straw poll (tho unscientific) showing 49- 49, validates race is definitely tightening!
I am a believer in momentum shift, it has shifted the last days in our favor! Fox exit polls shows it has closed up from 9 points behind to, 1 point behind, 48-47%, another good sign! If Obama can’t close above 50% , he is in some trouble! He won’t sleep well tonight! In the primaries, Obama was not a good closer with Hillary, might repeat.
13. God & prayer factor!
National Day of prayer yesterday! For the cocky Obama, “pride cometh before a fall.“ His grandma died, cutting his rallies short, his Nevada campaign chair die today.
We might have rain in Philadelphia, of all places, which will help McCain.
If indeed Obama loses, especially by narrow margin, expect troubles on the street, maybe looting in Urban cities like SF, Chicago, LA, Philadelphia, NY city!
Obama will NOT concede! May take days before we know.
No far leftist have ever won White House, though they have repackaged him into a moderate.
I read, to my surprise, that ACORN end up registered more Republicans than Democrats. Also exit polls show the % of new voters, young voters who have voted early, is not really higher than the past.
How is possible Obama who has more baggage, more issues than John Kerry could win except more MSM help, much more cash!
On November 1, 2004, the day before the election, this was the electoral map at Electoral Vote. It predicted a Kerry win: 298-231. but Bush won by 286 - 251. The MSM were off by 102 Electoral Votes. That’s adding Texas, PA, Fl, CO., Missouri together!
Ignore that Gallup poll, which shows Obama ahead by over 10%! Crazy! I believe they intentionally release record no. of polls, using a new metoid, geared to discourage and demoralize McCain supporters!
Let’s see if we get confirming results from Redskin’s win tonight, currently leading 6-3.
I’d laugh my ass off if Mccain “Gores” Obama.
If the fraudulent votes can taken out as they should be, I think it’s more than possible McCain would win both popular and electoral.
I honestly think McCain will win the popular vote AND the ECV. With all the indicators against Obama, I don’t think there’s enough fraud to pull it off.
I guess we’ll find out soon enough!
I hope that the national guard units are suited up and ready for the inevitable riots in the “urban” areas of our nation when this happens.
That's me. But I am not coming home to McCain. He is just the lesser of two non-conservative evils. And I like Sarah Palin.
Yeah, Obama’s not a good closer. Which could explain Michelle’s bitter frustration.
I don’t know about your analysis, but even the staunch dem in my office believes sincerely that the polls are overstating Obama’s support and that the undecided voters are McCain voters afraid to admit it.
Yes that is right.. I see no reason why McCain would not win both.
Skins are down...but not out. Sound familiar?
Obama flipping McCain on Drudge may get a few ladies bridge clubs to turn.
Redskins are losing 16-6 Btw. But Green Bay beat Washington in 2004 and GW won, so no biggie.
Explain to me this:
*Palin gets the highest SNL ratings in a decade
*McCain gets the second highest SNL ratings in a decade.
*McCain gets Letterman his highest rating in 7 years.
*NYC Jewish ladies are buying “Palin wigs”
*Palin glasses are very popular.
*The Jewish Press has endorsed the winner in every election since 1988.
*Palin and McCain convention speech beat Obama’s.
I personally think it would be hilarious if it happened! Another lesson to the fools about how the EV works and another reason for them never to sleep peacefully again! Oh, and after the riots, when some of the bad actors have been killed, all the better!
The amount of democrats crossing over to vote for McCain this election will be the story of the election as I’ve been saying for months.
Obama will NOT come close in the popular vote, I haven’t been worried about an Obama presidency for ONE SECOND. It’s not in the cards, this is the Moonbat Candidate, the Moonbat Coalition is not enough to win.
Cripes. First, McCain has a 3% chance of winning at all. Now he has a 60% chance of winning in some bizarro freak fashion that’s only happened 3 times in 220 years.
If McCain wins via an “Electoral College Reversal”, the Liberals will have a psychotic episode. They will not care about the Constitution (not that they ever do) and will scream for the Liberal Messiah to declare himself to be the President; he might do it. Thing will be much easier if McCain-Palin win the PV & EV.
If you’re collecting factoids, don’t forget that the Sarah Palin Cabbage Patch Kid on eBay is currently selling for the most of any of the presidential CPK’s (more than 10 times as much as Biden).
The football game is a wash. Someone from the Steelers endorsed McCain today, so either way the game goes, it’s lucky for McCain.
I really hope you are right.
There’s not enough popcorn in the world if that happens.
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