Posted on 11/03/2008 12:15:49 PM PST by justlurking
After a McCain rally on Sunday that more than halved his lead, Obama is back to where he was headed into the weekend. Independents made the difference, swinging back to Obama and giving him an 11-point advantage with this key group. Final results available on IBDeditorials.com at midnight Monday.
(Excerpt) Read more at ibdeditorials.com ...
As per Fox: among early voters, Obama has a . . . 1 point lead. 48-47.
My God the man can't even get to 50 in the EARLY votes!
We just won the election, folks.
To give you an example of how incredibly bad this number is, in Dayton, we had an early break of 12,000 D to 1,000 R, to 8,000 I!!! So that means, essentially, with red America yet to come in, Obama is up 1.
McCain is going to win this elections.
I’m confused, as I thought IBD didn’t poll (rightly so) on weekends due to the inherent inaccuracy.
If McCain gets 75% of the undecided, McCain wins the popular vote based on these numbers. I am not sure how the electoral vote would work out.
Per the TIPP web stie: “Final results available on IBDeditorials.com at midnight Monday.” I assume that they will attempt to allocate some of the undecides or something in their final results that will include polling from today.
LOL!
Gallup was 55-44 Obama today.
Oversampled Dems by 10%. I won’t post a link so as not to depress are more thin skinned FReepers, but it was pretty funny.
"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus
nah with the undecideds McCain will receive about 51pct of the vote
Throughout the primaries Obama has consistently received the percentage of votes he polled at - or less.
IF . . .
This trend continues
and . . .
This poll is as accurate as 2004 . . .
THEN
McCain wins.
It was 8.8% the day before the 2004 election in a 2-man race.
IBD/TIPP seems to be different than most, in that they don't ask for "leaning" or push someone into making a choice. Instead, they allocate the undecideds themselves.
It will be interesting to see how they do so, at midnight.
“This is the lesson: never give in, never give in, never, never, never, never - in nothing, great or small, large or petty - never give in except to convictions of honour and good sense. Never yield to force; never yield to the apparently overwhelming might of the enemy.”
Sir Winston Churchill 29 October 1941.
FOX: In early voting Obama now leads McCain by only 1 point, 48-47.
It's over. Obama already voted all the AAs, all the blue counties, put everything he had into a 1 point lead, and STILL can't get over 48. The McCain team has to be turning cartwheels.
According to the polls in the primary, BO always overpolled by at least 5%. If we can keep him under 50% we win.
Looks like the 9.5% undecideds is a way for TIPP to CYA
Mac wins vote 50-48%. TIPP can say the undecideds broke for Mac. TIPP wins either way.
That’s a lot of undecideds. Are they going to vote?
My prediction from two weeks ago still stands, although I'm starting to think I was too conservative in predicting McCain's final state total.
Bush won by 3 percent and your chart shows Bush up by 4 percent in the polls just before election day. Not a big difference, IMO.
When you consider that most of The One’s support is not thoughtful but cultish, and that there is a much greater stigma now in admitting to planning to vote for McCain than Obama, I can’t help but feel that most of that huge undecided number is going to go to McCain. You can only remain undecided up until the point the barrel of the gun is shoved squarely in your face. At that point you’ve got to make your decision count.
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