Posted on 11/03/2008 10:36:26 AM PST by dormee
This goes against voting patterns over the past 50 years. White males have been the GOP power base, win or lose. The idea that Bush could win this group by 25 points four years ago and now have McCain only leading by 6 just defies reality. I am sure after this election is over, McCain will have at least double digit leads among white males. If this is the case, how can McCain be losing?
I am no pollster and I won’t pretend to know the dynamics of the various polls. That said, I feel that the “already vote” is very telling.
All the polls are over-represented by democrats. That has been pretty obvious and this one is no different. If any of these polls are to be believed, there are more democrats voting early than republicans. Apparently, this is a historical norm and the Obama camp has really pushed the early vote among his followers.
In my opinion, this means a certain percentage of democrats are voting for McCain or the “already vote” would not be as close...factor in the independents and this looks very promising. Votes in the battleground states are very tight generally, another good indication.
Essentially, Republicans, we must get out the vote tomorrow. This race is up to us...pretty simple.
Hahahaha! funny isn’t it. Think I’m gonna have to agree with you. I stopped trusting these polls long ago.
Mccain has my vote tomorrow!
I think the last thing that I read about polls, that pollsters were being hungup on, is very telling. If no one wants to talk to them, they are skewed and inaccurate. Well, they are anyway. lol
I'd like a job like that.
The parties pay for it. Donations etc. in less than 36 hours, we’ll know how accurate they were.
Leaving aside the usual Dem net oversample, note a few other things about this faux Fox Obamapoll. One, using my usual methods, I suspect that Fox oversampled city slickers and minorities. The tipoff for city slickers is Fox’s astonishing finding that Obama’s 50-43 “lead” is identical between men and women. In real elections, that never happens. The only way to dilute the man vote is to include too many men who live in cities or are minorities.
Note that McCain is now performing even better with white women than Bush did, yet overall he is not performing as well with women. This is yet another tipoff that this sample oversampled minority women, and I suspect more of them live in cities.
But the most astonishing thing to me is Fox’s finding that among early voters, Obama leads by only one point: 49-48. Like, wow. Shouldn’t he be ahead by much more than that? Wasn’t Kerry ahead by more than this with the early voters? What ever happened to that enthusiasm gap that is also driving the turnout models of these faux Obamapolls?
all you say MAY be true however, the blond reporter lady, as evidenced by the transcript ony exemplifies the petty nature of the press corps we have grown to despise and disregard.
I DON’T give a rats behind she did not speak to the blondie, I hope she was out there churning out the crowd and the votes.
During college games and NFL games, I see plenty of Obama and ads for other Dem candidates. In sports bars, I see young pukes wearing their Messiah buttons. Its no accident that Obama brags about his basketball skills. With the fundraising advantage, the Dems are making a play for single white males.
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