How can the polls be so wrong? The Palin Effect, for one.

The American Sentinel ^ | 11/03/08 | Paul Zannucci

[Tanniker Smith]

The only trend from early voting that means something to me is that the youth vote has been seriously lacking in early voting, even though they are supposed to be the most gung-ho. And if they show up on Election Day to long lines, are they going to wait or just assume their guy already won.

[Red Badger]

Then THEY are PUMAS..................

[counterpunch]

Much has been made in this election regarding the Bradley Effect, where pollsters are told by respondents that they intend to vote for the black candidate so that they don’t seem prejudiced, but then they end up voting for the white candidate on election day.

This is not what is behind the Bradley Effect at all.
It is not white racists lying and telling pollsters they support 0bama but secretly vote against him because he's black.
It is actually much more complex than that.
Here is how it works:

Pollsters weight the polls. That means they have target percentages of Republican, Democrat, and independent voters.
They interview a certain number of each, and then, if need be, adjust the figures to match their predetermined model.
But there is a certain percentage of voters who refuse to participate. This year, and in other elections with a black candidate, there is a much larger number of people who refuse to participate. The pollsters are sweeping this fact under the rug, but there is a shockingly high percentage of refusals this election.

Those refusals are largely from white voters who are uncomfortable answering questions about their preferences, due to 0bama's race. These are people who largely do not support him. 0bama's supporters are not intimidated into silence. Only those who oppose him are.

Back to those weighted models now. When Republicans refuse to participate, it doesn't really impact Republican support numbers for 0bama much, because Republicans overwhelmingly oppose him. Republicans who refuse are not significantly different in their opinions than those who have the courage to speak their mind. But Democrats and independents who refuse are an entire segment who are under-represented. Their place in the data is taken by those who do not decline to participate, who are much more likely to support 0bama. Any shortfall in projected Democrat and independent turnout models are filled by stretching the numbers of those who participated. The end result is an augmentation of 0bama's support, particularly among Democrats and independents. The more voters who refuse to participate in opinion polling, the more exaggerated the Bradley Effect will be.
 

[proud American in Canada]

I certainly hope there are a lot of them! :)

[edzo4]

the quayle effect, did you forget you weren’t on daily kos there for a minute?

[Red Badger]

Me, too!............

[cookcounty]

From the UK TimesOnline:

"British polls are properly and carefully weighted, taking account of what is known as the spiral of silence – the tendency of voters for the less fashionable party to keep their intentions to themselves. British pollsters weight their results to allow for these shy voters. US pollsters do not."

"It isn’t unreasonable to believe that there could be a Republican spiral of silence. And that US pollsters are all missing it." This is from the point of view of the Brits who in 1992 experienced an election in which ALL of the polls were UNANIMOUSLY WRONG. This election shapes up in many ways similar to that one.

[cookcounty]

From the UK TimesOnline:

"British polls are properly and carefully weighted, taking account of what is known as the spiral of silence – the tendency of voters for the less fashionable party to keep their intentions to themselves. British pollsters weight their results to allow for these shy voters. US pollsters do not."

"It isn’t unreasonable to believe that there could be a Republican spiral of silence. And that US pollsters are all missing it."

This is from the point of view of the Brits who in 1992 experienced an election in which ALL of the polls were UNANIMOUSLY WRONG. This election shapes up in many ways similar to that one.

[concerned about politics]

I think a lot of that is resentment over the dims and msm types treatment of her.

I agree. She's more qualified for the presidency than the Marxist Messiah, yet the press had the nerve to try to make her appear as though she was the rooky. (It actually brought attention to the Marxist Messiahs lack of qualifications.)

[concerned about politics]

"It isn’t unreasonable to believe that there could be a Republican spiral of silence.

The silent majority - No one is asking them what they think.

[Tublecane]

“Palin will suffer from the Quayle effect.”

I wouldn’t exactly call that suffering.

[caveat emptor]

I’ve been meaning to ask, what exactly is a PUMA?

Some details here.

[philled]

I personally know two politically-ambivalent women who are voting Palin tomorrow. One is a new voter (20 years old) the other hasn’t voted for a President (Clinton) since 1996. Neither of them would call themselves Republicans and both signed their registration card as Dems.