(Vanity) The Polls are (mostly) nonsense. Here's why.

Self | 11/3/2008 | Self

[MaverickElephant]

Just sent this out to friends and family. Comments welcome and appreciated.

- M.E.

[Mr. Dough]

Here is a meaningful one, and it’s spot-on:
http://peacemoonbeam.typepad.com/scooters_report/

[rdax]

GOTTA VOTE!!

[Genoa]

Yep, and the polls really messed up the D primary in NH.

[joinedafterattack]

Great post.

[IllumiNaughtyByNature]

Nice coherent first post. It had a good beat, was easy to dance to, I'll give it an 8.

Nice job.

[Dilbert San Diego]

well, after Tuesday, we’re done with polls for a while, as we all see the actual results.

And we’ll know the answer to everyone’s questions about how accurate these polls really are. Lotsa folks here think that these polls had the numbers manipulated to show higher support for Obama. And that polls were inflated in certain states such as Pennsylvania on behalf of Obama. We’ll soon know the answers to all these questions.

[Dilbert San Diego]

The polls in New Hampshire couldn’t measure the impact of what happens when a candidate starts crying. LOL.

[Red Badger]

I put no faith in polls or pols................God only............

[Retired Greyhound]

Don’t forget that their are a lot of PUMA voters, a lot of Operation Chaos Republicans still registered as Dems, a lot of conservatives who refuse to talk to pollsters, a lot of independents who are lying to pollsters about Obama, and a lot of unregistered voters probably lying to pollsters and saying they are registered.

Polls are skewed this time. VOTE!

[SE Mom]

Welcome to FR!

GOTV!!!

[libh8er]

I would like to believe you but I have to ask, how can so many polls be so wrong and for so long. I don’t think the American people are voting for Obama so much as they are voting against the status quo. Obama just happens to be there and to reap the benefit.

[cookcounty]

OK, my last "poll post" for today: From the British Times Online:

___________________

"British polls are properly and carefully weighted, taking account of what is known as the spiral of silence – the tendency of voters for the less fashionable party to keep their intentions to themselves. British pollsters weight their results to allow for these shy voters. US pollsters do not."

"It isn’t unreasonable to believe that there could be a Republican spiral of silence. And that US pollsters are all missing it."

This comes out of the British pollsters total meltdown in 1992, when they ALL got it badly wrong.

[screaminsunshine]

Zogby I think is a muslim. That should explain his polls.

[lonestar67]

Good analysis.

[AGreatPer]

The fight is on for the first network to announce that Obama is the winner. Place your bets.

[Thickman]

But, I’m guessing that you probably haven’t heard about ANY of this on CBS, NBC, MSNBC or ABC.

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You have not heard this on FOX news either. Sadly.

[Seatot]

I know I am naive - but why would a pollster even publicize their results if you can look inside and see their bias?? they should use ethic and fair methodology and have equal weighting between D&R - they risk looking bias and having their data lack credibility????? Am I wrong in this view??

[edge10]

“I would like to believe you but I have to ask, how can so many polls be so wrong and for so long. I don’t think the American people are voting for Obama so much as they are voting against the status quo. Obama just happens to be there and to reap the benefit.”

Oversamplingd dems, Bradley effect, PUMAs.

[SaveTheChief]

Nicely done!