Winning every single tie is on a par with winning the lottery.
Normally, what you say has merit. However, in today's world of vastly over-sampled Democrats, all of the tied/leaners are most likely solid.
He is only tied in one. NC
“Winning every single tie is on a par with winning the lottery.”
—yes it is difficult but not that hard. It comes down to momentum (although i’m not convinced he has enough)
mac winning north carolina is on par with winning the lottery?
Yes sure. Winning red states that Bush won is really like hitting the lottery.
ok.
You are assuming that the win or loss is like a coin flip. I would submit to you that, based on my own personal experiences, the coin is more likely to land with the McCain side up.
I was polled twice by Gallup this time around. The first question was on the economy, the second question was on the direction of the country, the third question was approval/disapproval of President Bush, and the forth question was McCain/Obama.
Now, I answered that the Economy was great, the country was moving in the right direction, I had a favorable opinion of President Bush, and I'm voting for McCain. I have no way of proving it, but I am fairly certain that I am the only person in America who answered those four questions that particular way. I think most people said that the economy sux, the country is headed down the toilet, and they don't much care for President Bush and then they were then asked who they like for President. Now, given that those three answers were fresh in their minds, how many are going to say that they want McCain?
The problem with the poll is, that people don't vote like that. They don't run through a check-list in their mind. They look at the two candidates, and pick who they think is best for the job. On that score, a heck of a lot of them are going to go for John McCain.
If Gallup wanted to improve their polling accuracy, they would call and ask who people were intending to vote for, and then hang up the phone. But, for some reason, polling accuracy does not seem to be top on their list of priorities.
Unless the polls are simply made up.