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Counting Your Chickens Before They Hatch
BC Politics ^ | November 02, 2008 | Dave Nalle

Posted on 11/02/2008 10:12:47 PM PST by Exton1

For a minute I thought it was next Sunday, because they were all talking about the election in the past tense, with questions like "when was it that John McCain lost this election?"

The discussion came down mostly to how much of a landslide the election is going to be for Obama, with no consideration of the possibility of any other outcome.

Apparently the media has entirely convinced itself that exit polls of early voting can accurately predict the overall outcome of the election, despite the fact that it has been definitively proven that people lie pathologically to exit pollsters, as was demonstrated in 2000 and 2004.

It is almost enough to raise the suspicion that they are engaging in psyops-style vote suppression and attempting to convince people not to vote because the outcome is predetermined.

One of the fundamental mistakes the punditocracy and the pollsters seems to be making is the assumption that high voter turnout means that lots more Democrats are voting and that independents are turning out to vote Democrat.

They seem to be overlooking the reality that Obama is a polarizing figure and his power to turn out voters may very well include the power to turn out a lot of voters who oppose him.

A second important mistake is the assumption that Obama has a strong appeal to the middle and working class. The predictions of the pollsters and pundits seem to give no consideration at all to the possibility that Obama may be losing a remarkable number of votes among the white middle class to whom the McCain message and Sarah Palin's union background and populist persona are very appealing.

The third mistake is the chronic Democratic assumption that voters are stupid and uninformed.

(Excerpt) Read more at blogcritics.org ...


TOPICS: Editorial; Extended News; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: mistake; obamamccain; vote
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1 posted on 11/02/2008 10:12:47 PM PST by Exton1
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To: Exton1

Good article and right on the money. The pundits are complete idiotic fools and this whill be clearly shown on November 5. This election will be a referendum on barack obama an it will be thumbs down.


2 posted on 11/02/2008 10:17:14 PM PST by HerrBlucher
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To: Exton1

Correct me if I am mistaken but hasn’t early voting been less favorable to Obama than Kerry in 2004?


3 posted on 11/02/2008 10:17:25 PM PST by Norman Bates (Freepmail me to be part of the McCain List!)
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To: Exton1

4 posted on 11/02/2008 10:19:01 PM PST by Emperor Palpatine ("Everything is proceeding as I have foreseen.)
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To: Exton1
Let the MSM and Elitist Pundits have their fun counting those chickens...that way we can all sit back on November 5th and have some scrambled eggs and watch all of them eat crow.
5 posted on 11/02/2008 10:19:30 PM PST by T Lady (Palin-Jindal 2012)
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To: Emperor Palpatine
ROTFLMBO!!!!
6 posted on 11/02/2008 10:20:49 PM PST by T Lady (Palin-Jindal 2012)
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To: T Lady

They should be eating crow, but they will claim that they were justified and that everyone who voted for McCain is a racist boob hick.


7 posted on 11/02/2008 10:21:08 PM PST by ForbesFan
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To: Exton1

In Obama’s case, I’d say it’s “counting your chickens before they come home to roost”.


8 posted on 11/02/2008 10:24:06 PM PST by Question Liberal Authority (Make your own damn pie.)
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To: HerrBlucher

thats the reason the dems pushed hard to get people to vote early - to skew the polls! early voters are not new voters.


9 posted on 11/02/2008 10:24:06 PM PST by Eric Esot
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To: Exton1
Great article, and this part I really liked:

There's a very real possibility that the McCain/Palin campaign is largely flying under the radar and that their successes are being almost entirely overlooked by those who are watching the election.

I believe this is happening. The media and the DC/NYC insiders love the idea of Obama so much, they refuse to step back and look at reality.
10 posted on 11/02/2008 10:27:15 PM PST by snarkytart
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To: Norman Bates

The way I understood it, yes and no, the Black Vote has turned out heavily in early voting, the youth vote has not.

FL remains mixed, NC there was a huge early turnout, but it ran for two weeks, anyone who was crazed about the Obamao has cast their ballot.

Ehh...Nov 4th...vote..’nuff said.


11 posted on 11/02/2008 10:27:53 PM PST by padre35 (Sarah Palin is the one we've been waiting for..Rom 10.10..)
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To: ForbesFan
So I guess that would make me an Oreo Sellout since I voted for McCain as well.

I refuse to sell the future of this country down the road to Socialism and Serfdom.

12 posted on 11/02/2008 10:28:14 PM PST by T Lady (Palin-Jindal 2012)
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To: Exton1

Not only do they lie, but this year many many people are refusing to respond, just like in the polling. This is something the pollsters do not know how to take into account. There are huge numbers of people refusing to respond.

Me, I’m in CA so it’s pretty much Obama, but I am not listening to a THING on TV, it will be off, all Election day, until our polls close here. I suggest to anyone who has polls open later than the east coast that they DO NOT listen to anything until their polls close. The MSM will do ANYTHING to suppress any votes for McCain/Palin. So, I am requesting that no one in other time zones turn on anything until their own polls close! That’s hard, but think of how long and hard Sarah and John have campaigned in the last weeks and grit your teeth and don’t reach for the TV or Radio remote


13 posted on 11/02/2008 10:28:38 PM PST by Ruth C (!!!! Get off the back of your lap and VOTE !!!!)
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To: T Lady

14 posted on 11/02/2008 10:31:40 PM PST by Lisa_from Buckeye Country ("Al I ever really needed to know I learned on the basketball court."...Sarah.... and my daughter)
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To: Lisa_from Buckeye Country
To photo shop McCain's face on Truman's...

Priceless!

15 posted on 11/02/2008 10:35:06 PM PST by T Lady (Palin-Jindal 2012)
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To: Exton1
Help save America, find out why it is a very, very bad idea to let Barack Hussein Obama become the next President of the United States, because we will all suffer the consequences: The Obama Disaster.com
16 posted on 11/02/2008 10:43:12 PM PST by Stayfree (The Obama Disaster.com has all the latest reasons why Obama shouldn't be President!)
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To: Lisa_from Buckeye Country

That’s another picture I hope to see Wednesday morning......McCain’s this time. I’m sick of pundits and the lamestreams telling us it’s a foregone conclusion that Barf Obami will win. I wonder if all this doom and gloom is engineered to keep people away from the polls?


17 posted on 11/02/2008 10:45:10 PM PST by Dawgreg (Happiness is not having what you want, but wanting what you have.)
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To: T Lady

No, I don’t think Obama or the media would be too crazy about you. They have their agenda, and you don’t fit into it because you do your own thing.


18 posted on 11/02/2008 10:46:11 PM PST by ForbesFan
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To: ForbesFan
You got it...I refuse to dance to the Marxist Music or pay the Pretty Boy Pied Piper.
19 posted on 11/02/2008 10:47:52 PM PST by T Lady (Palin-Jindal 2012)
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To: HerrBlucher

“The media makes much of the huge crowds which turn out to see Obama’s speeches. What they seem to be missing is that Palin and McCain are making far more appearances between them, seeing far more of the voting public on a more direct level, and turning out enthusiastic crowds of 25,000 and more at every one of these appearances, often in states where, if Obama is actually doing as well as the experts claim, they ought to be getting the cold shoulder.”

This will be a Palin-McCain WIN folks.


20 posted on 11/02/2008 10:50:26 PM PST by txzman (Jer 23:29)
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