Posted on 11/02/2008 10:06:51 AM PST by profit_guy
Let's take CO for example...Mail-In & Early Voting representing approx. 56% of Total Active Voters in CO (based on Party Registration as of 8:30pm Oct 31):
D 488,575 51.2% +2.4% (RCP shows Obama +5.5%)...R 465,869 48.8%...I 336,511
Now here's where I think Obama has a BIG problem going forward in CO:
1. NOTHING has been factored in for the PUMA's. Imagine you are at a cocktail party standing around talking to 18 Hillary voters. Does anyone really think it is reasonable that not one, or two, or three, or more of those 18 voters will swing over to McCain?? (now think 18 million nationwide)
2. NOTHING has been factored in for the Bradley Effect, as well as the Muslim and Commie Effect. It's not as easy for a Black Muslim Commie to run for President as it used to be. Let's call that the Bradley/Hussein/Marx Effect. There will be significant Dem crossover to McCain due to this.
3. NOTHING has been factored in for Independents breaking towards McCain. Again, think the Bradley/Hussein/Marx Effect.
4. And this is one I have heard no one talk about. NOTHING has been factored in for what I call the Front-End Load Effect, which has been MASSIVE this year. Basically, I think Dem voters will show up in lesser proportions on election day than they have in early voting.
I invite comments to quantify the effects of 1, 2, 3 and 4. My guess is McCain wins CO by 5%. In other words, Obama is being overpolled by 10%. And if that is true across a large part of the country, and I suspect it is, then McCain wins.
SO IGNORE THE POLLS, AND GET OUT AND VOTE!
Now THAT'S funny!
That’s an AMAZING number of voters.
>
You betcha.
"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus
Was acorn active there and do you need an ID to vote? If it’s “registered” dems and their counting all the fake acorn dems who were registered that would be another factor. I’m in OH so it’s always on the top of my list.
The founding fathers knew what they were doing when they allowed only property owners to vote.
When the majority of people decide to vote to take the fruits of other peoples labor democracy comes to an end. It consumes itself.
It certainly appears that we are flirting with the tipping point.
Most Americans right now are not on their computers, and not every voter has one. If they get a lit piece passed out to them even to throw it away they have to look at it. Emails around this time get deleted. Here are two pieces to print up and pass out http://www.theusmat.com/
Those PUMAS are going to take care of things all by themselves. I can’t wait to hear them ROAR on Tuesday.
it’s based on party registration
Defeat the media on Nov 4
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“5. NOTHING has been factored in for the 36 million parents of special needs kids.”
that is an excellent pt!...i clearly need to revise my list to reflect this
Profitguy - you’re so right. We really need to think of a good way to do away with these media. We need to cancel subscriptions to LA Times, Boston Globe, NY Times, Washington Post, etc. In addition we need to massively boycot their regular advertisers. I’m for massive revenge here, no matter who wins on Tuesday.
“The founding fathers knew what they were doing when they allowed only property owners to vote.”
When did that end?
That is stunning! When did the poll he is talking about take place?
GOP won’t get shellacked.
Polls are also not factoring the number of registered Dems who are actually Republicans (Operation Chaos). My Dad is currently registered as a Dem in TX, because he switched to vote for Hillary in the primaries.
So they are using the inflated Dem numbers to re-weight. It is skewing the numbers.
New Jersey for McCain????? I hope it’s true!
Does anyone know what the polling was in 1994 before that conservative tsunami? A large number of “unlikely” voters turned out then.
I agree. If McCain even squeaks this thing out I'll gladly eat crow. I just have a bad feeling about this. Bad enough that I'm getting out of the market tomorrow and into bonds and cash.
Interesting theory... It could also be that the phony ACORN registrations make it look like there are more Dems than Republicans. I hope you are right. But I can’t help thinking that this is not a GOP year, and Bush barely won in 04 and 2000. No room for slack here.
If McCain pulls it out for the reason you suggest, then that means that Obama is far more unpopular than what is portrayed in the media.
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