Posted on 11/02/2008 9:33:00 AM PST by wiseprince
CNN, MSNBC, ABC,CBS and the rest of the mainstream media (Heretofore the Drive by Media) have all written off John McCain's chances in the election and in Virginia in particular. John King of CNN today was quoted as saying that the McCain campaign can't think of a scenario where they win without flipping PA to a red state. I don't by this one bit. I would watch Virginia on election to figure out how good McCain's chances really are. Keep in mind that Virginia is a traditinoally red state and although it has been trending Democratic during the last few years (mainly as a result of a demographic shit in Northern VA) it hasn't gone for a Democrat since 1964
Winning VA simply gives McCain too many options to carry the day. The fact that he hasn't been camped out there for weeks must mean something (I'm sure not sure what it means). It may mean he has absolutely no chance or it may mean if is VERY confident in the GOTV campaign he has in VA.
Consider this, if VA goes McCain and he turns PA he can win the election without CO,NV,NM,IA. He could win while not carrying OH,NM,IA. He can win without carrying OH,CO,NM,NV,IA and turning NH red. There are far too many scenarios where McCain flips PA and holds VA that provide a clear path to a McCain victory for the campaign not to have considered guaranteeing victory there. The question really is why haven't they fought harder? They either know that it is a lost cause or that it's in the bag.
I question the perception that VA is a lost cause for McCain with it's strong military roots. Republicans had a 4 or 5% party ID advantage in 2004 when Bush carried the day. Most public polls are giving Democrats a8-10% advantage this year. I simply do not believe that is the case. Demographics do not shift that quickly and Party ID is the same. Even in 2006 (where Republicans too a real beating) the state was still a Republican state (party id wise). It is true that Senator Jim Webb (D) carried the day but he is a very conservative Democrat (I don't think anyone, at this point, would lay that label on Barack Obama).
If the state were a lost cause McCain would not spend another dime there but in the last 3 days he will be traveling to the state a few more times at least. I believe Sarah Palin is also planning a visit or two to the state before election day. Why waste the time and money on a lost state? If it were a toss up state (and the McCain campaign truly believed that) then they would have spent far more time there than they have. It seems to me that there actions indicate that there are either extremely incompetent or very confident about holding the state. If they are able to hold the state than there will be a President McCain come November 5th.
Incidentally a new Richmond Times-Dispatch poll has Obama at 47% and McCain at 44% with 9% undecided. It seems to me that if Obama hasn't closed the deal with at least 50% of the population in the state then he may be in trouble.
Watch Virginia come election day.
Come on, Old Dominion. You can do it.
I have a lot of friends over there, and they’re all going McCain.
Of course, I tend not to socialize with very many lefties, Virginia or otherwise.
Try to convince them to help the turnout on election day. Virginia could be the election for John McCain and Sarah Palin. Do whatever you can to help VA win
Don’t listen to the media. Thet are trying to suppress the GOP vote and a lot of so called “conservative” pundits are trying to keep their DC cocktail party intact by saying Obama is going to win. DC is an Obama incestuaous cesspool.
Try to convince them to help the turnout on election day.
One caveat: the media will call Va early for Obama! If they don't Mccain is winning her in a blowout!
They'll compare this year's returns in 'bellwether' precincts to previous elections...
Don't buy it! It's all part of the show!
We've had too much internal migration in Va for that method to be accurate.
It'll probably be a long night in the Old Dominion.
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Obama Says A Baby Is A Punishment
Obama: “If they make a mistake, I don’t want them punished with a baby.”
Last month, the more talkative youth was all pumped up for the Sarah Palin rally down in Richmond (Columbus Day). Obviously, something had impacted them.
Today, the boys asked me who I was voting for. I balked because I try to keep partisanship out of my class. (And we have some pretty liberal folks in our church.) But I finally said, "well, I have problems with McCain... but I have a lot more problems with Obama. So I will be voting for McCain."
The lads were ecstatic. Young Nick was excited about being close enough to touch Sen. McCain at a recent rally and worked the phone banks for 5 hours yesterday.
Something is going on here in Virginia that the MSM has completely and almost predictably has missed.
Go to www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2122644/posts and read what Nobama says about killing the coal industry and new coal plants.
bttt.
It could be that without PA and OH, they have no chance even if they get VA and only have time and money for 2 out of 3.
If you get VA and PA you can still lose OH, NV, NM and IA. They must have thought of this
CNN just call Virginia for Obama!
It was just announced Obame wins all.....
The Bush legacy just keeps giving.
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