Posted on 11/02/2008 9:22:31 AM PST by tatown
Day 21: IBD/TIPP Tracking Poll
The race tightened again Sunday as independents who'd been leaning to Obama shifted to McCain to leave that key group a toss-up. McCain also pulled even in the Midwest, moved back into the lead with men, padded his gains among Protestants and Catholics, and is favored for the first time by high school graduates.
(Excerpt) Read more at ibdeditorials.com ...
If I performed statistical analysis in my own work the way the pollsters do it, I’d be fired on grounds of fraud and/or incompetence. The non-sciences have non-standards when it comes to data analysis and data acquisition...it is a disgrace. That so much anguish and joy springs forth from polls (especially polls fluctuating within, or close to, grossly-underestimated margins of error) is a testament to the power of mass delusion.
The acquisition/sampling methodology alone is rife with opportunities to injet bias - we further have to take the fidelity of their implementation on blind faith; fabrication of records is no more difficult than fabrication of results.
The analysis itself adds a whole new layer of potential fraud and incompetence. Sample weighting can easily be rigged (with “good justification”) by a few percentage points to bend the published results. Response grouping is another subtle way to get the answer you want. Data-blocking over several days is not done in some universal way - the polling agencies have ample latitude in how they block different datastreams together to present trendlines and such. Metanalysis, as applied in most contexts, is a synonym for fraud.
Then we have the way in which the data is presented. They casually play with the confidence interval (and then not mention it) to tune the published margin of error. If I, in science, took any one of the liberties taken in data publication in social contexts, no journal would ever publish my research again.
Sorry for the rant, but with all of these posts on FR about polls swinging one way and another, and the media storytellers’ resulting “analysis”...happy thoughts are not the result. It is a giant, furious vortex of stupidity. Focus on message, focus on turnout, and screw the polls!!
That's a tremendous edge, here's another demographic group that will affect the important swing states.
The Appalachia region has reason to prefer JSM.
Polls have the electoral votes of Ohio(20), Pennsylvania(21), & Virgina(13) leaning to BHO.
If these 54 electoral votes swing to JSM then he will most likely win it; and that can happen because Barack Dumbo Obama deeply insulted the whole region by pejoratively calling them "bitter clingers".
IBD/TIPP was the most accurate pollster in the 2004 Presidential election and along with Battleground polling the only pollster not bought by Obama. We now see that Gallup, the MSM polls, the PEW poll etc who show Obama with a double-digit lead are completely out to lunch. Even Rasmussen and Hotline now show a 5 point race and that’s with oversampling Democrats. Also look at the Mason-Dixon state polls released today showing McCain in the lead in Ohio, Missouri and North Carolina. Things are looking good but as Rush Limbaugh said on Friday I have a gut feeling that things are turning ‘but it’s going to be a turnout election’.
Damn straight that is the case. I am completely convinced of it.
Nobody is undecided by now, and if Obama hasn't convinced them by now, he never will. For many it is unrattling to have official sounding strangers call your home, possibly even know your name, and ask if your voting for the black man. Your only choice is to hang up, say Obama or say undecided.
Political correctness has frightened many people. Nothing is more horrible then to be considered racist. We can only imagine the fear that some PUMAs have as well. Is it the DNC calling to check my loyalty????
FIGHT FOLKS
FIGHT!
Good news in this poll. I say McCain wins big on Tues!
GO MAC!!!!!
If one removes yesterdays Gallup and Zogby one-day polls showing Hussein leading 52-42, the trend of the polls over the last week are all pointing to the race tightening.
Hussein is below 50% HE CAN’T CLOSE THE DEAL!!!!!!!!!!
I think Obama got a bump from his infomercial which is wearing off. Now McCain has his explosion of ads (supposedly), and with the exposure of Obama’s marxism and his lies about his illegal aunt and her illegal donation, and his radical ties, and our prayers, surely the one is done!
IBD you’re getting warm...
Here’s a chuckle for you on “Margin of Error”
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2117123/posts
Don’t forget MN
Very cool graphic! Keep the change!
The informercial was part of it. Don’t overlook the effect that Halloween likely played on polling for Friday evening as well.
It has to do with numbers not just percentages. If you have more Dems than Reps then even though Obama may have a lower percentage among Dems than McCain has among Dems, Obama can still be ahead in total numbers, which is then translated into a percentage.
inevitable
Obama is getting negative press, his Informertial was a wash, though well presented.
the people are starting to learn, better late than never.
Undecideds are breaking for Mccain
McCain keeps “gaining” but never takes the lead. Heck, I’ve read about him gaining for the past 6 days.
That’s the frustrating thing. TIPP/IBD is one of the most accurate polls and it seems to track what other polls show — McCain is losing in everyone of them.
“They have McCain up 54-40 among men.”
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Funny.....the Zogster had Hussein with a 1 point lead over men yesterday. Once again, the Zogster is full of it.
Indeed.
http://www.johnmccain.com/PhoneBank/?guid=0A517F03-C3ED-4A24-A14A-3BD9D5F32F2F
if anyone feels like sabotaging the obama phone bank!...hehe
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