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How Big is the P.U.M.A. Factor?
The Marston Chronicles ^ | November 1, 2008 | Paul N. Marston

Posted on 11/02/2008 12:12:21 AM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet

If you know the answer to this question, you know who our next President will be. While it is possible for McCain to win even if this factor is negligible, he would need to get virtually all of the undecided’s to break his way. That is theoretically possible but it is mostly wishful thinking on the part of McCain-Palin supporters. For every undecided voter either candidate picks up, it takes a vote out of the undecided column and adds one to that candidate's total. However, the spread between the two candidates only goes up by one vote. That is not the case with a P.U.M.A. voter, which is by definition, a registered Democrat voting for McCain-Palin. This takes a vote away from Obama-Biden and adds one to McCain-Palin, increasing the spread by two votes.

There is always a certain amount of voters who do not vote for their own party's candidate in any election. This desertion rate is pretty well known and is factored into the weighting algorithms used by pollsters. What is unusual about this election is that the way Hillary was treated by the Democratic National Committee and by the Obama campaign thoroughly annoyed a lot of Democrats. Add in the fact that Obama's positions make social conservative Democrats very nervous. Then there is the hypothetical Bradley Effect due to the presence of a black candidate. All these factors make up the P.U.M.A. coalition which is very hard to numerically pin down. That makes it difficult for the pollsters to properly allow for this factor. Given the spread between the various polls, it is obvious that some of the polls are making no allowance for the P.U.M.A. Factor at all.

As we have all learned by now, it does not matter what happens in the popular vote because only the electoral votes count. So it all comes down to the effect that the PUMA Factor will have in the battleground states. By knowing the size of the PUMA Factor in those eleven states, we can determine who will win and by how many electoral votes. By looking at the No Toss Up States electoral map on www.realclearpolitics.com, we see that at the moment, Obama-Biden has 353 electoral votes and McCain-Palin has 185 votes. Now look at the RCP average for the battleground states further down that page. Let's arbitrarily decide that there is no way the PUMA Factor can make up a deficit of 13 or more points in the RCP average for a state.

Now let's build a table of the eleven remaining states in ascending order of the amount that McCain-Palin is behind in the RCP average for each state. To this we add columns to show what happens as the PUMA Factor allows McCain-Palin to overcome the deficit in each state. As you can see, if the PUMA Factor is large enough to overcome a deficit of 6.2 points, we have a tie vote. Overcoming a 6.5 point deficit gives McCain a victory by 10 electoral votes. Anything higher is pure gravy. Using the latest state population estimates from the Census Bureau, we can apportion the estimated turnout of 130,000,000 voters nationwide into these eleven states to get an estimated turnout. The big question is how many PUMA voters would it take to give McCain-Palin the election? Since each PUMA voter has twice the effect, it takes only half of the RCP average of PUMA voters to swing the state into the McCain column. This allows us to calculate the number of PUMA's needed in a state.

(Table at link)

Now you can see why the McCain-Palin campaign says that this election is not over. There is nothing like a numerical analysis to allow you to see what it would take to turn this election around. Now before you McCain-Palin supporters think this is a piece of cake, let's have a reality check. You cannot count a voter as a PUMA unless the Democrat voted for both Gore and Kerry. Democrats who did not do that are already accounted for in the polling models. This analysis assumes a uniform turnout across the country which is not going to happen. That means that it could take more PUMA voters if the turnout is higher than the average in any of these states. Likewise, if the polls have underestimated the Democratic turnout, then more PUMA voters will be required to offset that. Another assumption is that the number of Republicans voting for Obama-Biden does not exceed the usual percentage of Republicans doing that.

Will there be enough PUMA voters in the top six states in the table to give McCain-Palin the election? I do not know and neither does anyone else. I will say that if McCain-Palin only carries the top five states, we are going to have a complete mess on our hands because a tie throws the election into Congress to vote on a state by state basis. There is one possibility that the table does not cover and that is Congressional District 2 in Maine. If McCain-Palin could pick that one vote up, they can win without Nevada. Of course, that would take sending Sarah Palin to Bangor, Maine as I have repeatedly suggested. Instead, the McCain campaign is pinning its hopes on Pennsylvania. The problem is that the PUMA voters are not evenly distributed by state. There would seem to be a much smaller percentage of disgruntled Hillary supporters in the western states. That is why the McCain folks have leapfrogged over the three western states in favor of Pennsylvania.

UPDATE: Since this article was posted, I have already had to change Florida, Pennsylvania and New Hampshire to reflect a lower deficit in the RCP average. In the case of Pennsylvania, it now requires 26,793 fewer PUMA voters for McCain-Palin to carry the state.


TOPICS: Culture/Society; Editorial; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2008; 2008polls; crossovervote; demsformccain; election; electionpresident; elections; hillaryvote; mccain; obama; puma
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IMO, this will be the game changer, the deciding factor in McCain's win.
1 posted on 11/02/2008 12:12:21 AM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Do you really think that PUMA’s actually exist to such an extent? It just doesn’t make sense for a fan of Hillary to vote from McCain. I hope you’re right.


2 posted on 11/02/2008 12:20:07 AM PDT by Warlord
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
Depends how much voter fraud is really going on. If Acorn is bussing people from one precinct to another in many states, no amount of PUMA's can offset that!

I only know that the PUMA's have worked their butts off for McCain/Palin, not sure of their numbers, but was looking tonite & each one of their blogs has links to many, many more blogs, so it looks like a large number to me!

3 posted on 11/02/2008 12:20:42 AM PDT by blondee123 ("I'll keep my guns, my freedom & my paycheck, you can keep the CHANGE!)
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To: blondee123; Warlord

Here’s several millions (minimum) of PUMAs, etc..

Hillary Clinton Supporters For John McCain:
http://www.hcsfjm.com

Party Unity My A$$ PAC/People United Means Action PAC:
http://blog.pumapac.org

Democrats Against Obama/Nobama ever!
http://democrats-against-obama.org

Just Say No Deal:
http://justsaynodeal.com

and more...

http://blog.pumapac.org/
http://www.hillaryclintonforum.net/di...
http://riverdaughter.wordpress.com/
http://thatsmeontheleft.blogspot.com/
http://noquarterusa.net/blog/
http://savagepolitics.com/
http://hillbuzz.wordpress.com/
http://thedenvergroup.blogspot.com/
http://www.lynettelong.com/CAUCUSFRAUD/
http://thenewagenda.net/
http://texasdarlin.wordpress.com/
http://www.reclusiveleftist.com/
http://uppitywoman08.wordpress.com/
http://clintondems.com/
http://www.hireheels.com/
http://cannonfire.blogspot.com/
http://anvp.typepad.com/
http://globallabor.blogspot.com/
http://insightanalytical.wordpress.com/
http://liberalrapture.com/
http://logisticsmonster.com/
http://edgeoforever.wordpress.com/
http://www.partizane.com/
http://chicagoagainstobama.wordpress....
http://donnadarko.wordpress.com/
http://redhotandbluepolitics.com/
http://themountainsage.wordpress.com/
http://paganpower.wordpress.com/
http://deadenders.wordpress.com/
http://ascrivenerslament.blogspot.com/
http://therealbarackobama.wordpress.com/
http://tdg.typepad.com/heidi_lis_potp...
http://tdg.typepad.com/democrats_for_...
http://sugarnspice.typepad.com/
http://comealongway.wordpress.com/
http://reddragon62.blogspot.com/
http://therealbarackobama.wordpress.com/
http://guerillawomentn.blogspot.com/
http://dakiniland.wordpress.com/
http://vbonnaire.wordpress.com/
http://gatewaypundit.blogspot.com/
http://americanpumainitaly.blogspot.com/
http://tominpaine.blogspot.com/
http://ohmyvalve.blogspot.com/
http://doublejointedfingers.blogspot....
http://budwhite.wordpress.com/
http://www.audacityofhypocrisy.com/
http://texashillblog.wordpress.com/
http://citizenwells.wordpress.com/
http://therealbarackobama.wordpress.com/
http://nativeamericansagainstobama.wo...
http://anglachelg.blogspot.com/
http://madamab.wordpress.com/
http://gaffenation.wordpress.com/
http://www.hillaryis44.org/
http://elizabitchez.blogspot.com/
http://ladyboomernyc.wordpress.com/
http://stateofdisbelief.wordpress.com/
http://obamawtf.blogspot.com/
http://annienyc.blogspot.com/
http://clintondems.com/
http://www.writehillaryin.com/
http://drslogan.wordpress.com/
http://therealbarackobama.wordpress.com/
http://pumaparty.com/turndownobama/
http://thepinkflamingo.blogharbor.com...
http://free-us-now.com/
http://www.obamacrimes.com/
http://www.americasright.com/
http://hillaryclintonnews.blogspot.com/
http://demsmoveon.blogspot.com/

Take a look around these sites for a half hour or 45 minutes....(there are hundreds more linked to these, just look for links)

this is a VERY SHORT, PARTIAL LIST!!!!


4 posted on 11/02/2008 12:23:46 AM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet (Barack Obama: In Error and arrogant -- he's errogant!)
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To: Warlord

I was a bit skeptical, but evidently there was a lot of animosity, and for good reason.


5 posted on 11/02/2008 12:23:59 AM PDT by thesetruths
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To: Warlord

Obama stole the election from Hillary in the rigged caucus system. They do not want the Dem party taken over by Obama and his people — they detest him with everything they have.


6 posted on 11/02/2008 12:26:02 AM PDT by PhiKapMom ( BOOMER SOONER -- VOTE FOR McCAIN/PALIN2008! LetsGetThisRight.com)
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To: Warlord

I can’t say about Hillary fans. But there are a LOT of rural democrats that work their butts off, take care of their families, go to church, drive their trucks with the gun racks and think America is the best da*& country in the world.

Those folks will more likely pull the lever for an American-loving hero with severe liberal tendencies than for a lying, American hating, Communist thug.

A lot of staunch conservatives like myself will also vote for the liberal (small L) rather than the Communist.


7 posted on 11/02/2008 12:27:04 AM PDT by 21twelve (Ever Vigilant, Never Fearful)
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To: PhiKapMom

Yeah to use fraud on your own party is really nasty.


8 posted on 11/02/2008 12:30:39 AM PDT by thesetruths
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To: Warlord
Yes they exist. There are 100’s of communities on the internet where they congregate and they talk of their disdain for Obama and their intent to vote McCain.

But the most important factor is they openly talk about how they are intentionally fooling the pollsters and telling them they enthusiastically support Obama and will vote for him when they plan on voting McCain.

9 posted on 11/02/2008 12:31:11 AM PDT by jrooney (I am not voting for Spread the Wealth/Senator Government. I am voting for the War Hero and Baracuda.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
I can only imagine how some of them must feel to have to keep up appearances too.

I bet there is real fear. Your going to say Obama when that phone call comes. The internet and the voting booth are the only safe places for anonymity.

10 posted on 11/02/2008 12:35:49 AM PDT by Names Ash Housewares (Refusing to kneel before the polling gods and whimper. FIGHT!)
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To: blondee123

A screwdriver and a dream could change the election. And kill ACORN


11 posted on 11/02/2008 12:38:56 AM PDT by struggle ((The struggle continues))
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To: 2ndDivisionVet; All

.

.
I belong to several Puma boards (just to keep up with the news and stir ‘em up. LOL) I can tell you, they are plenty mad and very organized.

__________________________________

I’VE BEEN FLOODING DRUDGE OUT WITH THIS- JOIN ME. LET’S ROLL!:

Drudge:
for the welfare of our country,
put this before the American voter before it’s too late:

Barack Obama went to Kenya on a ‘Fact Finding Mission’ and campaigned for Ralia Odinga.
Odinga had a pact with the hard-line Muslims to bring the country under Sharia Law if he won the election. When he lost, he instigated riots that caused the deaths of over 1200 people- including 50 who were burned to death when the Christian church they sought refuge in was burned to the ground! No Mosque was touched!
BARACK OBAMA WENT TO KENYA AND CAMPAIGNED FOR THIS MAN ON OUR TAX PAYER DOLLAR!!

http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=S8QcpdUtxNQ&feature=related

SHORT VERSION:
http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=Q1P_P8lBCsE

http://www.themidnightsun.org/...

.
Obama went overseas to promise the “people of the world” that he would end the divide between rich and poor nations, and said, “people of the world, this is our moment, this is our time.”
Obama is running for a hostile takeover of the US on behalf of the anti-American international community. His plan is quite plainly to rape and pillage America’s wealth, and redistribute it to the rest of the world. His speech was brazenly candid about this.
He has already put forth this very plan in the S.2433 Global Poverty Act of 2007, which he authored in the Senate.
This bill, in fact will stick the U.S for 845 BILLION dollars.
Thats $2500 dollars for every man, woman and child in America.
That’s in addition to the BILLIONS we already funnel into third world countries who hate us.
THIS ACT ALSO PROVIDES PROVISIONS FOR DISARMING THE PRIVATE CITIZEN.

Glen Beck on Obama’s ‘World Poverty Act’:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FSia3mjkSLw&eurl=http://pumaparty.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=4318

Global poverty act
http://www.zwire.com/site/news.cfm?BRD=1134&dept_id=150866&newsid=20145309&PAG=461&rfi=9

The evidence is overwhelming:
http://theobamafile.com/ObamaReligion.htm
http://theobamafile.com/ObamaIslam.htm
http://theobamafile.com/

Obama/Wright/Black Liberation Theory
http://www.youtube.com/watch...
(Obama has NEVER disavowed the Black Liberation Theory
that he vowed to uphold when he joined Wright’s church.)

Obama- Disarm America:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dl32Y7wDVDs
First, I’ll stop spending $9 billion a month in Iraq. I’m the only major candidate who opposed this war from the beginning. And as president I will end it.[i.e. not win it]
Second, I will cut tens of billions of dollars in wasteful spending.
I will cut investments in unproven missile defense systems.
I will not weaponize space.
I will slow our development of future combat systems.
And I will institute an independent “Defense Priorities Board” to ensure that the Quadrennial Defense Review is not used to justify unnecessary spending.
Third, I will set a goal of a world without nuclear weapons. To seek that goal, I will not develop new nuclear weapons; I will seek a global ban on the production of fissile material; and I will negotiate with Russia to take our ICBMs off hair-trigger alert, and to achieve deep cuts in our nuclear arsenals.

Is it mere coincidence that an anti-capitalist run for President at the same time Islamic Sharia finance and law is trying to make advancing strides into the United States? Is it mere coincidence this same candidate wants to disarm our nuclear capability at a time when terrorist Muslim nations are expanding their nuclear weapons capability? Is it mere coincidence this candidate wants to reduce our military at a time of global jihad from Muslim nations?

,

Obama bringing back draft
http://truthfirstnow.blogspot.com/

The Socialist Party USA believes in open borders and six-months residency as the only requirement for U.S. citizenship. Obama marched with illegal aliens in Chicago in support of “comprehensive” immigration reform. Listen to Obama’s promises to La Raza in 2007.
.
http://my.barackobama.com/page/content/imi7...

Obama Truth Squads
http://www.youtube.com/watch...

Obama Security Squads
http://www.youtube.com/watch...

Obama membership in ‘the New Party’
http://www.zimbio.com/pilot...

The Socialist Party USA calls for an immediate withdrawal from Iraq. Obama says, “I will end this war,” with never a reference to “winning” or “victory.”
The Socialist Party USA calls for the “unconditional disarmament” by the United States. Obama has promised to dramatically reduce defense spending. Listen to his words here:
http://sillielizziesrock.blogspot.com/2008/09/obamas-disarmament-plan-national.html

.

.
From Dreams of My Father, “ I FOUND A SOLACE IN NURSING A PERVASIVE SENSE OF GRIEVANCE AND ANIMOSITY AGAINST MY MOTHER’S RACE”. Barack Hussein Obama

From ‘Dreams of my Father’, “The emotion between the races could never be pure, even love was tarnished by the desire to find in the other some element that was missing in ourselves. Whether we sought out our demons or salvation, THE OTHER RACE (WHITE)WOULD ALWAYS REMAIN JUST THAT: MENACING, ALIEN AND APART.’ Barack Hussein Obama

From Dreams Of My Father: “That hate hadn’t gone away,” he wrote, BLAMING “WHITE PEOPLE — some CRUEL, some IGNORANT, sometimes a single face, sometimes just a faceless image of a system claiming power over our lives.” Barack Hussein Obama

He added: “To avoid being mistaken for a sellout, I CHOSE MY FRIENDS CAREFULLY. The more politically active black students. The foreign students. The Chicanos. THE MARXIST PROFESSORS and structural feminists.”

“There was something about him that MADE ME WARY”, Obama wrote. “A little too sure of himself, maybe. AND WHITE’
The Audacity of Hope’, Barack Hussein Obama

“that ghostly figure that haunted black dreams.”- Barack Hussein Obama, ‘ Audacity of Hope’

.

From ‘Dreams Of My Father’, “There were enough of us on campus to constitute a tribe, and when it came to hanging out many of us chose to function like a tribe, staying close together, traveling in packs,” he wrote. “It remained necessary to prove which side you were on,to show your LOYALTY TO THE BLACK MASSES, TO STRIKE OUT and name names” Barack Hussein Obama

THEN THERE’S HIS REMARKS ON ISLAM:

Quote from Barack Obama’s book, Dreams Of My Father:
“THE PERSON WHO MADE ME PROUDEST OF ALL, THOUGH, WAS MY [half brother], ROY..HE CONVERTED TO ISLAM”.

From ‘Dreams of my Father’, “IN INDONESIA, I SPEND TWO YEARS AT A MUSLIM SCHOOL” “..I STUDIED THE KORAN..”

From ‘Audacity of Hope: “LOLO (Obama’s step father) FOLLOWED ISLAM....”I LOOKED TO LOLO FOR GUIDANCE”.

From ‘The Audacity Of Hope, “I WILL STAND WITH THEM (MUSLIMS) SHOULD THE POLITICAL WINDS OF WAR SHIFT IN AN UGLY DIRECTION..”

From The Audacity Of Hope, “WE ARE NO LONGER JUST A CHRISTIAN NATION, we are also a Jewish nation, a MUSLIM NATION, a Buddhist nation, a Hindu nation, and a nation of nonbelievers.”

http://www.examiner.com/a-534540~Can_a_past_of_Islam_change_the_path_to_president_for_Obama_.html?cid=dc-article-obama
http://www.examiner.com/a-536474~_Trapped_between_two_worlds_.html


12 posted on 11/02/2008 12:41:04 AM PDT by patriot08
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To: Warlord
A conservative is a liberal who got mugged.

The hard core PUMA's really believe that Obama stole the nomination from Hillary, and wasn't very gracious about it either.

Many Hillary supporters weren't ideologically in lock step with every one of her positions 100%. Many would be happier with Sarah Palin as Veep than Obama as Prez.

How many PUMA's there actually are, I have no idea. Nor do I know if there are other large groups of Democrats who are fed up with "party loyalty" being shoved in their faces. For instance, there could be labor union PUMA's, African-American PUMA's, military veteran PUMA's, etc.

In some cases, it's not a matter of the PUMA voting for McCain. Some might just stay home and others might vote for someone like Cynthia McKinney or Ralph Nader.

It's really hard to judge a group's size based on their internet presence. If there was a direct correlation, then Ron Paul would be battling it out with Tom Tancredo right about now.
13 posted on 11/02/2008 12:55:32 AM PDT by Question Liberal Authority (Make your own damn pie.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

I think the PUMA’s will roar in PA, WI, OH, ME, and NH to name a few.

If this race was out of reach, the PUMA Effect would not be big. However, this is a close race. This IMO, will energize the PUMA base even more since they know that collectively they can influence the election. The numbers of PUMA’s could also swell as a result. Also the PUMA’s, like us are learning new things about Hussein everday. And they don’t like what they are hearing. That will motivate their base even more.

Lastly, the pollsters cannot measure the PUMA effect. They are ignoring it. Expect the pollsters like Zog, Ras, and Gallup to look like complete fools on election night. Their track record for accuracy in this election including the primaries has been AWFUL, espectially when they are polling Hussein.


14 posted on 11/02/2008 12:57:00 AM PDT by TMA62 (TMA62)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

“if the polls have underestimated the Democratic turnout”

__________________________________________

Yeah, I’ve been noticing alot of that in the polls so far.


15 posted on 11/02/2008 12:57:29 AM PDT by rbbeachkid (When is enough enough?)
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To: Warlord

Yes, they do exist in great numbers. Many are hoping for a Hillary candidacy in 2012. They are really motivated to beat Obama, who they think has hijacked the Democrat party and will destroy it if he wins.

I know some who finally realized they are conservative even though they have been Democrats their whole life, much the same as the original Reagan Democrats.


16 posted on 11/02/2008 1:10:14 AM PDT by upsdriver (I am voting for Sarah Palin and What's his name?)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Wow! That’s an impressive list. Nice work!


17 posted on 11/02/2008 1:16:46 AM PDT by GVnana ("I once dressed as Tina Fey for Halloween." - Sarah Palin)
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To: Warlord
"Do you really think that PUMA’s actually exist to such an extent? It just doesn’t make sense for a fan of Hillary to vote from McCain. I hope you’re right

I am highly skeptical of any substantial help for us from this quarter. It has always sounded to me like a very few, noisy people, and that's it. Democrats just don't vote for Republicans.

18 posted on 11/02/2008 1:18:08 AM PDT by Irene Adler (')
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To: patriot08

BOOKMARK !!!

BTTT !!


19 posted on 11/02/2008 1:21:14 AM PDT by musicman (Sarah Palin Runs A STATE - Barack Obama Runs His MOUTH)
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To: Question Liberal Authority

I especially like that point about not all former HC supporters having agreed with all of her positions—I hadn’t thought of that. Depending on what those positions were upon which they differed, they could be more amenable to voting for the McCain/Palin ticket. Such a great point.


20 posted on 11/02/2008 1:28:35 AM PDT by thesetruths
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