Zogby: O-49.5%, M-43.8%, U-6.7%

Zogby | 11/2/2008 | Zogby

[tatown]

Today: Obama-49.5%, McCain-43.8%, Undecided-6.7%

Yesterday: Obama-49.1%, McCain-44.1%, Undecided-6.8%

[Numbers Guy]

But again McCain could win squeakers in just enough states to reach 270 EV’s.

I certainly hope so. But I'd rather be even in the popular vote, then we aren't hoping for the straightest of inside straights.

I do think Obama's decision to advertise in states like Arizona and North Dakota is chutzpah to the extreme. Bush did the same thing in 2000 when he spent time in California late in the campaign rather than hanging out in Florida.

[Numbers Guy]

A bare win of 272 or 290 might, just might, induce some humility. A tsunami of 350+ is a disaster that leaves him properly thinking he has a mandate.

I think any win by Obama will be treated as a mandate by the media, and I suspect, if he wins, he'll act that way in office. Reid and Pelosi will certainly play it up that way and, unlike Bush in 2001, the Dems will have more than a 1-vote majority in both houses of Congress.

Don't get me wrong, I'd much rather see a squeaker, I think there are marginal benefits to it (makes the anti-mandate argument stronger). But it's almost certain that any Obama victory combined with a Democratic Congress will lead to a bunch of bold declarations.

The good thing is that, if they win, their overreach will be their downfall.

[Danette]

Just read on a PUMA board:

Today at the campaign HQ here, Chuck Heath (Sarah Palin's brother) notified us that we are tied in PA and down by only 1 in OH.

[Heart of Georgia]

“Zogby is going to have fun with us this weekend and will back down on Monday.”

Regardless, he continues to make a fool of himself and can’t be taken seriously.

[goldstategop]

Exactly. That's not the decision of a man confident of victory. Obama is trying to rope in every last vote... akin to a drowning man clutching the life raft so he won't go under.

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus

[jeffo]

After much exhaustive research I have cracked Zogby's secret sauce. You can now generate official Zogby numbers here:

Zogby Polling Generator

[goldstategop]

Oh my... McCain is going to keep OH and take PA. That's why the campaign is going to spend the next two states to get both states locked down.

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus

[goldstategop]

Two states = two days

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus

[SteveAustin]

I do not see any way McCain wins the popular vote. States like NY, CA, NJ, IL, will go overwhelmingly Obama. McCain wins would be by narrow margins in the populated Red states like OH, VA, PA.

I know many Freepers who note in these threads things like “Obama will get crushed”, but I just don’t see it. When you get outside the world of FR and Drudge readers, I know many who are voting Obama that you wouldn’t expect. There is big support out in America beyond African Americans and liberals. People who just want something different and will pull the Dem lever without thinking things through.

That said, again I’m not convinced Obama can pull his own “straight” and take all the Bush Red States. I think McCain’s got a shot at this.

[Birdy]

LOL! Good stuff, jeffo!

[bcatwilly]

We Vote We Win. Go and vote. Ask your family, friends, neighbors, and colleagues to vote for McCain/Palin.

Agreed, I have been making calls for the McCain-Palin campaign. The bottom line at this point is that we need the following 2 things to be correct for us to win:

• Our base turns out far better than these polls appear to assume.
• Obama bleeds Democrats on election day, not achieving the 89% that Gore and Kerry got. This mutes much of the new voters if he can't hold his base enough.

[goldstategop]

You assume that Obama will take Blue States by overwhelming margins. In NJ for example, only 51% admit to voting for him so its already clear he's nowhere as popular as Kerry. If the election is down to the wire, McCain will probably lead in both the popular and EV votes. For some reason, Obama always does worse relative to his final poll numbers.

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus

[Warlord]

I've been waiting for the Zogby special sauce graphic for weeks. Thanks!

[BlessedBeGod]

No big deal.

McCain’s numbers always go down on the weekend.

[jveritas]

Excellent work.

[jeffo]

thanks, I aims to please

[originalbuckeye]

Hmmm. Methinks that Zogby has received the ‘no more access’ call from the 0bama truth squad. I have read that many think the Republican writers (Noonan, Park, etc.)are sucking up to the 0bama campaign so they will still get invited to the DC parties. Immature people in DC are a dime a dozen.

[originalbuckeye]

I'm sure that California will go 0bama but not in the hugh margin expected. I think Prop 8 will bring out Conservatives in droves. I think McCain will do better in the popular vote than expected. McCain's popular vote overall will not be as low as the polls suggest. To win he must bring all Conservatives and Republicans to the polls. He CAN win but it will be tough.

[februus]

Ol’ Zog will be wearing his underpants on his head on Wednesday.

[tatown]

I thought it was a turban.