Democrats don't win Pennsylvania, they win Philadelphia and the rest of the state comes along as a bonus. In 2004, Kerry won Pennsylvania by 150,000 votes. But his margin of victory in Philly was 410,000 votes. It won't be any different this time. Obama needs a narrow win around Erie and Pittsburgh and the Philadelphia collar counties, and the usual results in Philly and he's in. Results from the southeast and central won't matter.
Oh, I think it will.
Let me give you a little lesson about PA this year. Gov Rendell is not out working hard for Obama and the PA Dems are not giving out walking around money and the GOTV is almost exclusively on the GOP side with help from the PUMAs and other Democrats for McCain. Two buses are headed into Scranton and Bucks County this weekend from Dems for McCain out of NY. Dems for McCain and PUMAs have been manning offices, making phone calls, and doing flyer drops all through eastern and western PA.
It is one thing for people to be negative occasionally but for someone to come on every thread that is positive with doom and gloom sticks out like a sore thumb — usually ignore but when you post information that is from the last elections, then it makes me wonder more. It is has been posted over and over again from people on the ground that even the blue collar union voters of Philly are not a lock for Obama. Might have something to do with no more secret ballots.
If you are always this doom and gloomy about our chances, suggest you find a new line of work that will brighten your day!
Cheers!