[snarkytart]

You think CO and NV early voting looks good?
I know CA is even so far, but lets get real, no way McCain is winning CA.

BTW...to LS, and to anybody else, did FOX really report on this.
I know I might get my teeth kicked in for asking this, but how credible is ‘Red State’ website??

Just don’t want to get too excited.

[LS]

Last I looked, we led in CO by 1,000 early votes (ie., more GOP than Dems). Now, I'm basing everything on a turnout model that says that a higher % of Dems will vote for McCain than Republicans will vote for Obama. Split the indies down the middle---but all signs are they are breaking for McCain.

So, yes, CO looks pretty good. If we turn out in CO, we win and Schaeffer will have a shot.

NV's numbers indicate a 2% Obama lead (same assumptions as above, which are weighted in Obama's favor), long before any of the red counties check in. He needs a much bigger lead in those Dem counties than he's getting, just as Geraghty says in the article.