[LS]

Last I looked, we led in CO by 1,000 early votes (ie., more GOP than Dems). Now, I'm basing everything on a turnout model that says that a higher % of Dems will vote for McCain than Republicans will vote for Obama. Split the indies down the middle---but all signs are they are breaking for McCain.

So, yes, CO looks pretty good. If we turn out in CO, we win and Schaeffer will have a shot.

NV's numbers indicate a 2% Obama lead (same assumptions as above, which are weighted in Obama's favor), long before any of the red counties check in. He needs a much bigger lead in those Dem counties than he's getting, just as Geraghty says in the article.

[snarkytart]

Very good to hear, and I appreciate the analysis with all the poll data, because I do not know any of this stuff.
:)

[jerry639]

Last I looked, we led in CO by 1,000 early votes (ie., more GOP than Dems). Now, I'm basing everything on a turnout model that says that a higher % of Dems will vote for McCain than Republicans will vote for Obama. Split the indies down the middle---but all signs are they are breaking for McCain.

I am leery of any reports that early voting is going one way or the other. As I understand, in Indiana the early votes and absentees are tallied on election day and not before. Can anyone direct me to any state sites where it states that early voting or absentee votes are counted before election day? I am not questing anyone's statements but would like some proof that some states count votes before election day.