Posted on 10/30/2008 12:31:08 PM PDT by TitansAFC
Campaign Spot reader Laurence notes an interesting wrinkle in the post below about Nevada. The guy doing the exit poll of those who have already voted, with 7,147 responses, puts Obama ahead, 50 percent to 48 percent.
If Republicans were a lot more of the early voters, McCain would be nervous. If Democrats were a lot more of the early voters, Obama should be nervous. And if they were split even, a 50-48 Obama lead is in the neighborhood of what we would expect.
In Clark County, "through Sunday, 55 percent of early voters were Democrats, 29 percent Republicans."
"In Washoe County, 51 percent of the early voters through Sunday were Democrats, while 33 percent were Republicans."
Clark County, which includes Las Vegas and its surrounding area, has 68.7 percent of the registered voters in the state. Washoe County, which includes Reno, has 18.6 percent of the registered voters in the state.
In Clark County, Democrats hold a 46.3 percent to 32.3 percent edge in voter registration. In Washoe County, the split is 39.2 percent Democrat, 38.7 percent Republican.
With those numbers, you would expect Obama to be ahead by a much wider margin. Unless that poll of the early voters was way off — and this pollster managed to reach roughly one out of every 43 early voters; think about that when you see a poll of 1,000 designed to represent a national voting pool of 120-130 million voters! — a considerable number of Democrats and independents/unaffiliateds in Nevada are voting for McCain.
No pollster has had McCain ahead in Nevada since the end of September. So why is McCain so dramatically overperforming among early voters who are disproportionately Democrats?
(Bradley Effect x Wilder Effect)**2 (that's Squared, for you non-engineering types.
I'm not trying to sound pollyannish, but if this were such a transformative election, and all America was so in love with Barack Hussein Obama, he'd be up by 20 in California, Florida, and Nevada by now. At least, he'd be up by as many Dems voting as GOP voting.
Freepers are always rushing to liberal Web sites to goose a poll.
"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus
"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus
Mccain ahead in CA early voting? I missed that newsflash but very positive if true. It would certainly harbor well for other states.
And why is he rallying in IA? I thought that was safely blue.
He'll get a TON of votes in Tonopah and he'll WIN in Winnemucca too. Yes, we'll be LAUGHLIN all the way to the bank!
Ouch!
With any poll.
I’m not sure about California. Anybody know what the polls are showing at this time?
“Perhaps the nonstop tv ads had blowback? Any chance the same thing will happen in Wisconsin?”
I think a lot of retirees have moved to Nevada because of the tax break. The over abundance of TV and radio ads were nauseating when there last week....but when we asked the taxi driver who he thought would win he said Obama he thought. I definitely saw more Obama t-shirts but then he was in town (ugh) when there too. I am thrilled McCain is winning...maybe it’s the military..Independents....maybe it’s the over amount of Obama ads....whatever reason....I love it!
“Perhaps the nonstop tv ads had blowback? Any chance the same thing will happen in Wisconsin?”
I think a lot of retirees have moved to Nevada because of the tax break. The over abundance of TV and radio ads were nauseating when there last week....but when we asked the taxi driver who he thought would win he said Obama he thought. I definitely saw more Obama t-shirts but then he was in town (ugh) when there too. I am thrilled McCain is winning...maybe it’s the military..Independents....maybe it’s the over amount of Obama ads....whatever reason....I love it!
LOL....I know those towns well.
As for Wisconsin...I bought it will go McCain. Too die hard Liberal of a state...not the same dynamics...but heck we can wish for it!!
This story goes with this mysterious posting last night. Very interesting.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2119397/posts
I hear the Wisconsin ads feature the elderly saying that McCain wants to take their social security away. And the ACORN warriors have probably been going door to door with baskets of absentee ballots.
How about the screwing obama gave to the HIllary voters in the caucus? A bit of PUMA payback there. Another Achille’s heel for obama, the antipathy between blacks and Hispanics. In their minds they are both fighting for the same slice of the same pie.
Laughlin out loud!
OK, I'll stop now. ;)
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