PA would give him well above 270!
I’m a little gunshy on projecting electoral maps; I scored direct hits in 00 and 04. I got my clock cleaned in the congressional races of 06.
You can build your own map at realclearpolitics, but they have some screwy stuff going on in their template calling MT and ND neutral.
Anyway, giving Mac PA and VA makes for 281 on my chart. I kind of gave CO over to blue and hated to do it.
MO, FL IN and OH are all red on my map.