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So he should lose OH?

I am no insider though I know someone who knows someone who is a lifelong Dem GOTV ward type pol for a SW state Obama thinks he is going to win. My close friend said these ward type pols are working for McCain. Not sure if they are PUMAs or what is going on but they can turn this state. This is not top secret stuff. Anyone on the ground in the know would know this.

My take now is Obama is trying to set “firebreaks” or is retreating and trying to hold a state after losing one. I think he may have given up on OH or is hoping ACORN fraud can save it. He also may know FL is lost too. I think McCain should win NC. VA should also go McCain.

It looks like it is a battle to the death in PA. If McCain bags PA then Obama is finished. Remember Hillary won PA 55% to 45% and Obama outspent her 3 to 1.

Our advantage should be that McCain/GOP should be felling pretty good about the base showing up. Obama will get a lot of AA voters but the fall off of Hillary voters is what will probably doom his campaign.

All I know is that this is a county Bush lost twice, by 2% each time, and we have consistently had McCain up, outside the MOE, here. It would be very, very difficult for Obama to lose this county and "make it up" someplace else, because Cleveland and Cincy cancel; Warren and Franklin cancel.

Let me understand what you are saying: the DEM ward pols are all working for McCain? Do you mean stealth or openly?

Finally, unless you are giving CO to Obama, he has already lost with the scenario you lay out. VA, OH, FL, CO, and NV=274. McCain doesn't need PA.

"He also may know FL is lost too."

I don't know about the rest but I've noticed that at least here in West Central FL (Ocala, Gainesville, Tampa TV market and west) Obama was spending a boat load of money but in the past week or so the spending is way down or at least seems to be anyway. Biden was just in Ocala the other day and had a reported crowd of 3500 or so but I hear it wasn't nearly so well attended. So you may be right.