Posted on 10/28/2008 9:29:23 PM PDT by trumandogz
I am absolutely unsure of how the Jewish vote in South Florida will play. It could really help McCain if he can get 45-50% of them. I hope Lieberman has been working it.
I can guarantee you there is A LOT of very visible Jewish support for Obama down here. How the vote translates? Your guess is as good as mine?!!
How do you know what Lieberman says?
I anm counting on Pamela. She knows how to tell it and is fearless.
http://atlasshrugs2000.typepad.com/atlas_shrugs/2008/10/the-great-rever.html
I find nothing anti-Semitic about this comment. Further this poster is pro Israel/Jewish. AND he happens to be correct. I am ashamed of my co-religionists and question their values and motives.
The fact that Americans in Israel are supporting McCain 3:1 says it all. When their lives are actually on the line they vote with their interests.
In 2004, Jews were 3% of actual voters and Bush won the election by 2.78%.
I don’t see the relationship between those two numbers. Although W was reputed to get only 25% of the Jewish vote nationally, a swing of 5% of the Jewish vote toward the GOP in ‘04 as compared to ‘00 meant a net pickup of 50,000 votes in FL as compared to ‘00. That was enough by itself to turn FL from a recount mess into a solid GOP margin - although Bush won FL by 300,000+ in ‘04.
In the 2006 Congressional elections, Jews voted for Democrats at the rate of 89%.
That’s a distorted number from one ‘Rat poll. Even at that, many of these congressional elections in heavily Jewish areas took place in districts where the ‘Rat ran unopposed or practically unopposed. In one competitive district in some Chicago suburbs, the winning GOP candidate got 35% of the Jewish vote.
Please see my post # 25. The polls cited in this posted article are grossly skewed toward the ‘Rats for the reasons I indicated there. Look for McCain to come out with something around 40% of the Jewish vote when all is said and done, if polled accurately.
Thank you my friend.
As you noted, I am very pro Israel and pro real Jews, and I have been fortunate to have some real ones as friends and one as an adult mentor. I learned the description of JINO from the latter.
We have the same problem with CINO’s. Those, who claim to be Christian, and their true religion is democrat. Like you with your co-religionists, I question their values/motives and want nothing to do with them.
I already saw that. If you read my post, you will see that I said that the result is skewed to the 'Rats because of at least three factors: (1) Gallup polls generally are because the organization, like almost all polling organizations, tilts left and wants that kind of result. (2) The Tom Bradley effect is considerable for all white voters this year, and most pronounced among Jewish voters because they, above all other whites, don't want to be perceived as racist by the pollster. (A corollary of the Bradley effect, BTW, is the prospective McCain voter not wishing to be included at all in the poll.) (3) The Gallup poll was done in the "first three weeks of October." During that time frame, nine of the twenty-one days were Sabbaths or Jewish holidays, days on which Orthodox and some Conservative Jews would not be talking on the phone for religious reasons. That subgroup of Jews will break big for McCain, so undersampling them skews the results to the 'Rat. (Other Jewish subgroups that will go strongly for McCain are the more recent Soviet immigrants and their families, and the American Jews in Israel. According to one "exit poll" I saw from the Americans in Israel group, the voting went McCain 76, Obama 24 - no Bradley effect in Israel!)
My overall intuitive guess is that Obama will never come near the percentage of the Jewish vote that the 'Rat has recently gotten in presidential elections. The total real Jewish vote in this election will be about 60-40 for Obama, though the exit polls will show him with a wider margin because of sampling errors and the Bradley effect.
We’ll soon know for sure.
I still think that only 3 Jewish Republicans in Congress compared to 38 Democrats and 2 Independents who caucus with the Democrats is a huge factor in Jewish allegiance to the Democrat Party.
Illinois’ Jewish Congressman Rahm Emanuel’s name is being floated as Obama’s Chief of Staff in the event of an Obama victory.
In fact, the current 3 GOP Jewish congresscritters are a recent historical low, an anomaly. (Among Jewish GOP senators - including some RINOs - in recent decades were Javitz, Boschwitz, Hecht, and Rudman. Among GOP House members were Dick Zimmer, Ben Gilman, and Seymour Halpern. I'm sure there were a few others whose names I can't think of.)
BTW, if it means anything, three of the prime time speakers at the GOP convention this year were Jewish: Joe Lieberman, Norm Coleman, and Linda Lingle.
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