Posted on 10/28/2008 6:05:29 PM PDT by Free ThinkerNY
Zogby, Rasmussen, and Gallup all report McCain closing the gap to within 5 points. Zogby had him 12 back, Rasmussen 8, and Gallup 6 in their previous polling. McCain's use of Joe the plumber, combined with the tax issue, is working!
Unilaterally, John McCain agreed to disarm himself by refusing to use perhaps his most potent weapon in exposing Barack Obama: the Democrats' relationship with the Rev. Jeremiah Wright.
The McCain campaign and, at its direction, the Republican Party, have banned use of footage of Rev. Wright from their campaign commercials. Perhaps for fear of being accused of racism, they are not bringing up the single most compromising association in Obama's past — his close liaison with Wright.
But it does not matter that Wright is black, white, or brown . . . or purple. What matters is that he spews hatred of the United States and that Obama was an active participant in his church.
Or are we supposed to believe that Obama regularly attended church with Wright for two decades, chose the reverend to baptize his children and officiate at his wedding, titled his book "Audacity of Hope" after hearing a sermon, but did not know of his anti-American views?
Nonsense.
(Excerpt) Read more at newsmax.com ...
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/horseraceblog/2008/10/more_on_the_polls_1.html
October 28, 2008
More on the Polls
On Friday, I noted that the differences among the national polls is large enough to suspect that something other than random variation is causing the disagreements.
I’d like to expand on this point by examining today’s Pew poll, which pegs McCain’s share of the vote at 38%, with a margin of error of 3.5%. That means that Pew predicts with 95% confidence that McCain’s true share of the vote is somewhere between 34.5% and 41.5%.
While we don’t know McCain’s true share of the vote, we do have an estimate of it - the RCP average. Right now, it puts McCain at 43.6%. This figure is far outside Pew’s 95% confidence range. So, if we use the RCP average as our estimate of McCain’s true share of the vote, we would conclude that Pew is an outlier.
The question then becomes whether it is outlying due to random variation, or some non-random cause. We can never know for sure, but we can make a few points.
First, the level of disagreement between the Pew poll and the RCP average is great. Indeed, if we assume that the Pew poll has an accurate read on the electorate, the chance that McCain’s true share of the vote is 43.6% is less than 0.5%. Given the number of polls that cycle in and out of the RCP average, we should expect at least a few outliers. However, it would be pretty rare to find one that disagrees with the RCP average by such a large amount.
Second, the previous Pew poll, which had McCain at 39% of the vote, was also an outlier when compared against the RCP average. So, Pew has twice in a row pegged McCain’s number at significantly less than the RCP average. It is very unlikely to see this kind of result if random variation is the only cause.
Does this mean that Pew is wrong? No. We could only conclude that Pew is wrong if we know McCain’s true share of the vote right now. We don’t know that. Instead, what we can conclude is that the difference between Pew and the RCP average is likely produced by something other than random variation.
Pew is not the only poll behaving in this fashion. Today, the Gallup traditional model pegs McCain’s number significantly higher than the RCP average. It has done this several times over the last three weeks - and every day since it began it has shown McCain doing better than the RCP average. It is unlikely that random variation would produce these effects. Today’s Rasmussen poll shows McCain significantly higher than the RCP average, and it has consistently been higher than the RCP average for the last three weeks. IBD/TIPP frequently pegs Obama’s number significantly lower than the RCP average, and it has shown him lower than the RCP average every day since it began. The GWU/Battleground poll has shown McCain consistently higher than the RCP average for 10 of the last 10 release dates, frequently at significant levels.
None of this is consistent with what we would expect from random statistical variation. These considerations reinforce the point I made on Friday. In all likelihood, something else is going on here. The pollsters have different “visions” of what the electorate is, and these visions are inducing such divergent results.
This is why I would urge caution when interpreting all this polling data. We’re talking about disagreements among good pollsters. I take all of these firms seriously whenever they produce new numbers. They are disagreeing with one another in ways that can’t be chalked up to statistical “noise.” That gives me great pause.
Posted by Jay Cost at 01:20 PM
ATTENTION: GOTV INFORMATION
http://ace.mu.nu/
October 28, 2008
GOTV Match-Up Thread
—Ace
Please, keep chatter to a minimum.
State where you are, where you can go, and if you’re offering or seeking transpo or lodging.
No digressions. Don’t make a maniac out of me. Do digressions, tips, and chitty-chat in an open thread post I’ll start now. Keep this clean of static. Just to match willing canvassers and phone-bankers with rides and beds.
Tips about buses and stuff McCain is offering is of course permitted.
Posted by Ace at 08:08 PM
Get On the Bus: GOTV Information Added
Rasmussen: Striking Distance in Pennsylvania
—Ace
Seven points.
Hey, NJ and NY morons. Even Connecticut morons. You know there’s not a damn thing you can do in your own states.
How about a working vacation for 2-3 days in Pennsylvania, Saturday through Sunday?
Pennsylvania’s nice. Lovely foliage this time of year. And it’s filled with racists and bitter clingy people with guns and Bibles, so you should fit right in.
It’s not that hard. And besides, you can go out and take over bars with your fellow morons after seven. Then maybe go out in your Ford trucks and run down homosexuals.
This is Sort of What I Mean By the GOP Getting on the
(More.....)
Is McCain closing the gap or are the pollsters finally being honest?
I think it is going to be a McCain win and he is going to win by a bigger margin than expected. The left and all their mouth pieces have been way too cocky in their prediction of the great one winning....it will come back to bite them
We’re going to need John to back-track on that promise about Wright because while the national polls are tightening the key states like Penn, Co, Virginia and NH aren’t showing as much movement as I would like to see. We’ve got NC, Missouri, Indiana back in the bag and I think we take Ohio, Nevada and Florida but unless we can get Virginia/Colorado or Penn back then electoral college wise we’re screwed.
Oh, so now the pollsters start to get honest, huh?
“good pollsters”
How many of them accurately predicted the last 2 elections?
Rev Wright is on his way only Mac won’t be doing it, GOP Trust is and they have a very nice ad and it should do well in the battle ground states, especially where they cling to their guns and religion /s
Yeah but you wouldn’t know it by Yahoo.
I have my home page to Yahoo and they have noting but hit pieces on mostly Palin and already have a poll stating McCain far behind on electoral votes.
On top of that, the featured article is a nice piece on Michelle Obama.
Liberals have taken the MSM and now they have taken over the internet.
Conservatives are screwed and will be no more once Obama is elected and he will be elected no doubt.
Welcome to FR.
Second - The McCain campaign and, at its direction, the Republican Party, have banned use of footage of Rev. Wright from their campaign commercials. Perhaps for fear of being accused of racism, they are not bringing up the single most compromising association in Obama's past — his close liaison with Wright.
This is where McCain will lose the election by not taking this chance. It looks like he's going to lose anyway - so he's gotta go all out - what's he got to lose...he'll gain more votes by bringing up Wright again.
Welcome to hell after Nov.4th.
I have no faith in this country and the simple morons that will elect this marxist to the White House.
Yeah, and the bar graph has got to go.
Put your faith in God, not polls, and all be will alright for conservatives.
0bama stabbed McCain in the back on campaign contributions now it's time to return the favor.
http://nationalrepublicantrust.com/
The ad is right at the link above that is going to run on Rev Wright and Obama. Plus some ads they have been running on Obama and DL’s for illegals.
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