Posted on 10/28/2008 9:34:23 AM PDT by Teacher317
Yahoo's current top story features a map that I think is a fair starting point for any electoral analysis. Barring anything huge in the final week, the electoral votes that are basically already decided look like this: Obama 234, McCain 163, Undecided 141.
Obama thus needs to add only 36 EV's. The 11 unclaimed states are:
FL 27
PA 21
OH 20
NC 15
VA 13
IN 11
MO 11
CO 9
NM 5
NV 5
NH 4
If Obama takes only CO and FL (36 total EV), it's over. If he fails in six of the biggest seven prizes here, he still wins (with NH, NV, NM, CO, and VA, totalling exactly 36)... and to me, those 5 seem like they could easily go for Obama.
McCain seems likely for IN and NC, but the MSM likes keeping them "in play" this year, I guess.
At any rate, McCain is up against it. Palin's boost is pretty much over (being well-defended by the MSM). Obama has millions of dollars and lawyers ready to roll at any time. Vote fraud has been given the Ohio stamp of approval. It will take one heck of a push by the GOP and maybe a grassroots effort to ensure that Obama does not take the Oath of Office on Jan 20.
I won’t say McCain has it locked up but his campaign appearances tell you a lot. I’ve been going door to door and I’m hearing stuff, the pollsters aren’t. I have trouble getting out the door sometimes. There’s a huge amount of anti-Obama sentiment that’s not being reported. People do not trust Obama. I’m hearing stuff that could only come off the internet from people that don’t have internet access. People are talking. But not to pollsters.
Obama’s chances are slim to none based on what I’ve seen.
If McCain suddenly denounced amnesty and offered to deport illegal aliens, he might win. But illegal aliens are too dear to him or he is controlled by foreign interests that even to win he would not turn his back on these invaders of our land.
Two other things that could turn the election in J. McCain's favor: B. Hussein's birth certificate. However, this is a little too late and if after Nov. 4, then Biden would end up president. Another one is that 2001 speech. I don't understand why it wasn't circulated earlier. Even Hillary missed it. Now it might be too late. (Rev. Wright should have knocked Hussein out of the election long ago, but media didn't let it happen.)
"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus
“It will take one heck of a push by the GOP and maybe a grassroots effort to ensure that Obama does not take the Oath of Office on Jan 20”
Not to worry, even if Obama takes the ‘oath’ it won’t be worth a da%$ to him.
Seriously though, I think the MSM is doing now what it did during the last 2 national elections. Their perpetual hyperventilating over the DNC candidate is nothing new. Add to that the unique Liberal talent for self-inebriation and their permanent state of clinical hysteria, and you can see what’s going on.
If a candidate wins the most votes in one of those state's congressional districts (Nebraska has 3, Maine has 2), then he would get one of the state’s electoral votes, even if he gets fewer votes statewide than his opponent. Bush won Nebraska in 2004 with 66% of the vote. Kerry won Maine in 2004 with only 54%... and central Maine did go for Bush (Piscataquis county).
Which ones do you think go for McCain instead, and why (other than raw hope)?
I don’t totally disagree, but nothing you say merits choosing Obama over McCain
“Comments”: Yahoo. Need I say more?
“Arguments”: I would argue that you’re stuck in an altered universe or state of consciousness. This is the only reasonable explanation a Freeper would cite a Yahoo “source”.
(Well, okay, we could lose Alaksa, or Wyoming, or a Dakota, or Montana, and still win... but that's not realistic for Obama, LOL.)
I think the discontented Hillary supporters, and dems who claim to be fiscally conservative may swing a few of the states who have been considered solidly liberal this year.
For the first time in about, oh, ten years, I have switched my homepage from Yahoo because of this and other election stories. And I certainly didn’t switch it to Google.
At our central committee meeting last night someone well placed in the McCain campaign told us that Iowa is as tight this year as it was in 2004. In fact, McCain is in the same position at this point in the campaign that Bush was in back in 2004. In other words, it is winnable but the polls just aren’t reporting it.
Yahoo isn’t my source. They posted a map that seems like a fair starting point for an electoral map discussion. I didn’t even link to the Yahoo map itself. The only change from the 2004 results in their “settled” states was Iowa, which doesn’t seem unreasonable, since Obama is currently up by 13 points there. That seems fair. Why don’t you give some analytical point about the EV race?
I predict all “undecideds” will break for McCain.
Whoa!!! North Dakota has a dead heat, with Obama sliughtly ahead? That's more surprising than Indiana!! (But again, add 5-6 for the GOP to account for slanted polling practices, and McCain wins each by 3-4%... but still, surprising!)
Based on what, may I ask? 11-for-11 is a tough run... and PA is polling +11% for Obama. I can see a 5-6 point swing due to slanted polling... but eleven? That seems like a longshot... and PA went for Kerry in 2004 (51-49, with a 144,248 vote difference).
I like your outlook.
The only problem with PA is that a lot of Obama’s support is coming from the Republican leaning white suburbs of Philly, where the upscale voters who are pissed because their home values and 401k’s are taking a beating.
I worry that they may offset the Religious gun owners.
Okay, I’m really depressed now. But God is in control...PRAY,PRAY, PRAY!
They also refuse to admit they don't have iphones or flat screens.
I apologize if I’ve offended you. It would appear that my humor missed its mark, although, my response was also meant as social commentary on my critique of the MSM. Their “reporting” on the general landscape of current data being circulated, which supposedly shows Obama with a decided lead over McCain, reflects their new math.
If history reveals any truth about this current election, we should recognize the similarities between the “overwhelming” support Kerry received during his campaign before being defeated to that of Obama.
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