[atomicweeder]

If my math and assumptions are correct, this means that it's going to be very close.

If the party ID holds at 4%, then McCain is ahead.

My assumptions are:

McCain gets 95% of GOP voters, 13% of Dems.
Obama gets 87% of Dem voters, 5% of GOP.
Independents are 55% Obama, and 45% for McCain.

[Royal Wulff]

What’s interesting is the polls use a voter model that favors Dems by up to 15 points. But here we see Reps and Dems voting in equal numbers.