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Call It 'The Obama Effect' (Why undecided voters will swing to McCain)
The Weekly Standard ^ | 10/27/08 | Arnon A. Mishkin

Posted on 10/27/2008 4:00:29 AM PDT by DocT111

As Election Day draws near, people are wondering if the presidential race will tighten. Will the undecideds swing to McCain, or will Obama continue to maintain his 4 to 11 point lead?

Some point to a "Bradley effect" suggesting that voters are hiding their true feelings from pollsters because of Obama's race, while others say the Bradley effect either never existed or no longer exists. People who think there is a Bradley effect believe that the substantial majority of undecideds are likely to vote for McCain, enabling him to close some of the gap.

McCain should win a larger share of undecided voters than Obama, but it has little to do with race.

With Obama outspending McCain by upwards of 4 to 1, getting enormous traction with newspaper editorial boards, generating the enthusiasm to bring out crowds measured in the tens of thousands, and with Palin treated as more of a punch line than a candidate by the press--it seems likely that if voters are not ready to tell a pollster that they are with Obama, they are unlikely to get there.

But the phenomenon of undecided voters' breaking for McCain need not be called the "Bradley effect." Call it the "Bloomberg effect"--where after $100 million of spending, his mayoral challenger was able to capture essentially all of the 10 point undecided vote. Or call it the "Clinton effect"--where almost all the undecided vote swung away from the popular incumbent and went to Bob Dole. Or call it the "Reagan effect"--where even during the Republican 1980 primaries, voters were apparently reluctant to say they were going to vote for the "elderly washed up actor" and he got the preponderance of the undecided vote.

(Excerpt) Read more at weeklystandard.com ...


TOPICS: Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2008; johnmccain; mccain; mccainpalin; nobama; palin; president; undecidedvote; victory
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1 posted on 10/27/2008 4:00:29 AM PDT by DocT111
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To: DocT111

Dan Rather
Please send to local media

newsbusters.org/blogs/mark-finkelstein/2008/10/21/guess-who-sees-msm-double-standard-bidens-latest-gaffe


2 posted on 10/27/2008 4:02:53 AM PDT by ncfool (ObaBama stands for The New United Socialist State or "TNUSSA")
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To: DocT111
How about the "Drive-By Effect?"


3 posted on 10/27/2008 4:03:59 AM PDT by Miss Didi ("Good heavens, woman, this is a war not a garden party!" Dr. Meade, Gone with the Wind)
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To: DocT111

How about the undecided get in the voting booth and decide they can’t stand that name.


4 posted on 10/27/2008 4:05:30 AM PDT by Mrs.Z ("...you're a Democrat. You're expected to complain and offer no solutions." Denny Crane)
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To: DocT111

How about the redistribution of poverty effect?


5 posted on 10/27/2008 4:05:33 AM PDT by gotribe (obama just sucks)
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To: Miss Didi

Regarding that graphic, God please help us.


6 posted on 10/27/2008 4:09:44 AM PDT by upchuck (Law of Logical Argument: Anything's possible if you don't know what you're talking about. => nObama))
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To: DocT111
The "OBAMA EFFECT" is occuring as we speak on Wall Street.

As Obama's lead has grown, so has the probability of his election,,,,and the markets are speaking LOUDLY AND CLEARLY.

The closer we get to the election, and the higher Obama's lead in the polls--

THE MORE THE MARKET DROPS!!!

7 posted on 10/27/2008 4:11:12 AM PDT by stockstrader (Biden tried to warn us of the dangers of electing an inexperienced and totally unqualified ticket!)
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To: DocT111

Has the word “REPARATIONS” come up at anytime during this campaign?

BO’s “spread the wealth” and the newly discovered tape (now up on Drudge) should be flashing lights pointing to reparations.

Now, if only the MSM would cover it....nah.


8 posted on 10/27/2008 4:11:13 AM PDT by Reagan69
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To: DocT111

Somebody’s gotta be outa their rabbit axxed mind to vote for this jerk/commie,,,,,0


9 posted on 10/27/2008 4:15:02 AM PDT by Waco ( G00d bye 0'bomber)
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To: upchuck

Im hoping the “Blind Faith” that Obamabots have scares the undecided to go McCAin. This crazy obsession with a human being is frightening to say the least.


10 posted on 10/27/2008 4:15:12 AM PDT by GoCards
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To: DocT111
With Obama outspending McCain by upwards of 4 to 1

If McCain were outspending Obama 4 to 1, not only would Obama's fans be boo-hooing about "buying an election," but McCain would be 20 points up.

Yet, while Obama may win, it sure doesn't look like it's gonna be by a huge number.

If they spent the same amount, I still think McCain would be up.

11 posted on 10/27/2008 4:18:23 AM PDT by Darkwolf377
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To: DocT111

When a person is asked for whom he intends to vote and he answers “I’m undecided,” this reply probably means “None of your frigging business.” Many Americans are now intimidated by the aggressive tactics being used by the left, and just don’t want to reveal their voting intentions and for good reason. Democrats are now insinuating that anyone who votes for McCain must be a racist, and as we approach November 4, I wouldn’t be a bit surprised if the Democrats openly accuse those who vote for McCain to be guilty of a “Hate Crime.”


12 posted on 10/27/2008 4:21:03 AM PDT by DJ Taylor (Once again our country is at war, and once again the Democrats have sided with our enemy.)
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To: GoCards

Sometimes I think I am having a nightmare and cannot wake up or that I have somehow slipped into an alternate universe. Or it could just be that 40 years of infiltration and domination of mass media, Hollywood and our educational system by the radical left has produced generations willing to accept collectivism with open arms. God help us.


13 posted on 10/27/2008 4:23:02 AM PDT by SVTCobra03 (You can never have enough friends, horsepower or ammunition.)
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To: stockstrader
I going big time long calls for a shock McCain/Palin win. They will win, I have no doubt, and you'll see 2000 points on the DOW Nov 5th-7th.
14 posted on 10/27/2008 4:23:05 AM PDT by AmericaUnited
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To: DocT111

The Bradley Effect no longer exists, in my opinion.

But I DO believe many Democrats, when a pollster calls, are afraid to admit they are “disloyal” to the almighty Democrat Party and support McCain.

After all, who REALLY knows the identity of the pollster at the other end of the phone line. It could just be a Democrat shill outfit who would then put that “disloyal” Democrat on the black list, so to speak.

It has nothing to do with race, but it DOES have something to do with LOYALTY.


15 posted on 10/27/2008 4:24:32 AM PDT by Edit35 (.)
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To: upchuck

The Friends showed it this morning...I was screaming.


16 posted on 10/27/2008 4:24:45 AM PDT by Miss Didi ("Good heavens, woman, this is a war not a garden party!" Dr. Meade, Gone with the Wind)
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To: Mrs.Z
How about the undecided get in the voting booth and decide they can’t stand that name.

Or that incredibly drippy kids' 0bama song filmed in Venice, CA.

17 posted on 10/27/2008 4:29:32 AM PDT by Rocko
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To: Waco

True,but it is rabid ass mind.


18 posted on 10/27/2008 4:29:59 AM PDT by HANG THE EXPENSE (Defeat liberalism, its the right thing to do for America.)
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To: Darkwolf377

With Obama outspending McCain by upwards of 4 to 1

_________________________________________________________

I wonder if this will have an effect, the Hussein Burnout Effect. With him advertising left and right, could people be getting tired of it?

They could also vote against him as a revolt. In addition to all the other things against Hussein, the perception that he is buying the election could be a big turn off.


19 posted on 10/27/2008 4:39:06 AM PDT by TMA62 (TMA62)
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To: TMA62

“In addition to all the other things against Hussein, the perception that he is buying the election could be a big turn off.”

It sure is great how the press is pointing out how NObama is buying the election, isn’t it?

Even if McCain wins, there’s a WHOLE lot of work to do!

McCain/Palin ‘08!


20 posted on 10/27/2008 4:43:36 AM PDT by PreciousLiberty
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